Slicing the 200 Minute Pie, 2012-13

I did this last year and the year before, so I guess you could say slicing this pie is now an annual Wahooze tradition, and a rite of spring every bit as important as dancing 'round the maypole... whatever the hell that is.

This year, a Mike-assisted graphic for the pie-slicing:

Those numbers beside the names are the minutes per game I expect to see each of those players average next season, assuming no additions or subtractions to the roster (which is generally a bad assumption), and assuming no injuries (which is generally a terrible assumption.)

Ten players slicing the pie, which is not typically what Tony Bennett likes to do.  He historically prefers a nine-man rotation (five guards, four bigs), with a tight seven-man (four guards, three bigs) primary roation.  But given the composition of the roster as we head into next season, and given the experiences of this season's lack of depth grinding the team down in March, I think those tight rotations will loosen up to include all ten of our scholarship players.

I have a collection of thoughts generated by this exercise, but first I think we really need to sink our teeth into what - exactly - it is we are trying to replace heading into next season.

Primary in everyone's mind, of course, is Mike Scott.  Mike averaged 31.2 minutes, 18 points, and 8.3 rebounds per game.  Big numbers, enormous shoes to fill.  But I don't think any one player, or even any group of players will try to replace Mike Scott's production tit for tat.  Instead, the entire complexion of the team will change.  Instead of Mike Scott and the Six Dwarves, the 2012-13 team will be more of an ensemble effort --- more balanced scoring effort, more evenly-distributed shot attempts, more emphasis on team rebounding principles.  And I'm not sure the ensemble approach won't eventually be more effective, given the tenets of Bennettball.

Then there is Sammy Zeglinski, who averaged 32.3 minutes, 8.6 points, 2.7 assists, and 1.6 steals per game.  Those minutes and points loom large, because we don't really have a backcourt stud stepping into the lineup.  Teven Jones isn't going to be able to take over right where Sammy left off.  That is especially true when it comes to defense --- Sammy was always an underrated perimeter defender.  He was short (and surrendered some shots against taller competition -- see FSU), but had active hands and was great at knowing his help responsibilities.  Anyway, his experience will be tough to replace on the defensive end.

I'm not including Assane Sene in this discussion, because we already saw the team play half a season without him.

So in total, we are trying to replace 63.5 minutes, 26.6 points, and 11.7 rebounds, among other assorted stats and production.

Where will all of that replacement value come from?  My predictions for each player in the rotation:

-- Jontel Evans will stay more or less steady at 30 minutes per game, but he'll be a lot more focused on attacking the lane as an integral part of the team offensive concept, which will lead to more points and more free throws... of which he will undoubtedly convert more than the 62% he managed this past season (it's sure to be an area of focus for him this summer.)  I think Jontel's FT% jumps to around 70%, and his scoring jumps from 7.3 ppg to somewhere around the 10.2 ppg he averaged over the course of our last 10 games.  Actually, throw him a bonus point for the improved free throws and call it 11 ppg from our senior floor leader next season.

-- Joe Harris will also stay steady at his 30 minutes per game.  I predict that Joey Buckets' scoring, however, will jump from the 11.3 ppg he averaged this season to somewhere in the 16-17-18 ppg range.  That's a big jump, but I'm bullish about it.  This is due to two main factors: 1) More shots.  Plain and simple, he'll be taking more shots.  2) No broken hand.  Joe was actually averaging almost 13 ppg before he broke his hand.  He's a 40% three-point shooter when he's healthy, and his number of shots will increase with Mike Scott not in the lineup.  Joe's 1.2 points-per-shot efficiency on three-pointers attempted is better than Mike Scott's 1.1 points-per-shot from the field from this past season.  Bottom line, Joe Harris will enjoy a new-found volume of shots, and if his form stays pure, we will very much enjoy seeing him jacking up threes.

-- Malcolm Brogdon averaged 22.4 minutes per game this past season, and I expect that number to climb to around 25 mpg next season, as he slides into the starting job at the 2.  The old college basketball adage is "the biggest improvement usually occurs between the first and second year," and if that holds true, I think we can realistically expect Brog to lift his production from 6.7 ppg on 39.6% shooting (32.4% from three) to somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 ppg based simply on an improved percentage from the field and a few more shots per game.  In any case, he'll be a more efficient scorer than Zeglinski was, due to an ability to penetrate and attack the basket.  (Brog's 80% free throw shooting will also help in this regard.)  Most people are saying that they hope Brog primarily works on his flat perimeter shot this offseason, but I'd prefer to see him focus on that dribble-drive game, where his size (6-5, 215) trumps most 2-guards that will be defending him.  He can also post those smaller guards up.  In any case, I think Brog will easily emerge as our #2 or #3 scoring option, and he brings more to the table in a starter's role than Sammy Zeglinski ever could.

-- Akil Mitchell won't ever be confused with a potent low post scoring threat.  That said, I think his minutes should see a modest jump from 22 mpg to 25 ppg, and his scoring production should rise from 4.1 ppg to around 6 ppg, due to sheer quantity of scoring opportunities (namely, offensive rebounds and stickbacks, which I believe will be his focus for the summer.)  What we really need most from Mitchell, however, is yeoman's work on the boards.  He averaged 4.4 rebounds per game (0.20 rebounds per minute) this season, and we need him to take that to Mike Scott's level of 0.27 rebounds per minute, which given the rise in minutes would take Mitchell to 6.8 rebounds per game in 2012-13.  Basically, we really need Akil Mitchell to become our rebounding specialist; our little Dennis Rodman (0.41 rebounds per minute in his NBA career --- utterly remarkable.  That's almost a half rebound every minute he was on the floor.)

-- Justin Anderson is the x-factor for the 2012-13 team.  Many people will tell you that he's raw, that he's not ready to play at the ACC level, etc., etc.  I say hogwash.  You cannot keep our best recruit of the last decade off of the floor as a true freshman, especially considering his defensive chops and his ability to play above the rim.  Sure, he lacks polish offensively, but his D will quickly win Tony Bennett over.  And with so much natural strength and athletic ability packed onto a bigger-than-you-think 6-6, 210-pound frame, I actually think Anderson will quickly win a starting spot in the lineup, as we shift to a four-guard (read: two-guard, two-wing, one-big) look.  This change accomplishes a few things: 1) It makes our offense quicker and more explosive, 2) It makes the pack-line more effective as more players are capable of guarding out to the 3-point line and "heating up the ball" as teams pass around the perimeter, and 3) It helps protect us from foul trouble with such a limited number of true post players.  So I'm penciling in Evans at the 1, Brog at the 2, Joey Hoops at the 3, Anderson at the 4, and either Mitchell or Darion Atkins at the 5 in our base lineup.  It's small, but I think it will work with the way Bennett likes to run his team.  As for Justin Anderson, I believe he will average around 23 minutes per game, pitch in 7 points per game, and add about 4 rebounds per game.  These are modest expectations for such an athletic player.  Whether I'm right and he starts, or I'm wrong and he comes off the bench, I do think he'll play a lot and quickly emerge as a major contributor next season.  He's simply too good not to.

-- Darion Atkins is going to be another key to the 2012-13 season.  If he's able to improve from his freshman to his sophomore season (a pretty safe bet, as he'll mature physically and will benefit from our coaching staff's above-average ability to develop post players -- look at Jerome Meyinsse), I think we'll see a major jump in minutes and production.  The most important thing for Darion, however, is learning to avoid silly fouls.  He's a good shot blocker, but taking the gambles necessary to block shots doesn't jive with the pack-line, nor does it help you stay out of foul trouble.  So if Akins can reconcile the fact that the team needs him to be a solid post presence and not a shot blocker extraordinaire, the team will really benefit.  Atkins averaged 10.2 minutes per game this past season, and for next season I expect that number to DOUBLE to 20 minutes per game.  We just don't have any other options, so for better or worse, Darion Atkins is stepping into a major role next season.  I have faith in the young man, as I really, really like a lot of what I've seen from him so far in his Virginia career.  With that jump in minutes, it only makes sense that his production will double; from 2.3 ppg to around 5 ppg, and from 2.3 rebounds per game to around 5 of those, too.  But since he'll be an improved player, I'm counting on 6 and 6.  Reasonable enough, right?  And oh yeah, since it's in Darion's blood to take those chances, go ahead and pencil him in for one blocked shot per game (which exceeds Sene's production in that category across the first half of the 2011-12 season.)

-- Evan Nolte is a very interesting player to have added to this mix.  At 6-7, he's a very long-bodied wing player who shoots like a guard.  He is not a post player.  I repeat, he is not a post player.  He's a shooter who could eventually fill out and become a similar player to what Mike Scott showed us as a 5th year senior; a finesse-based "power wing" is what I called it.  But really, Nolte looks more like an NBA-style "point forward."  The primary parallel I've heard is between Nolte and Florida's famous Chandler Parsons.  Nolte is a little bit shorter than Parsons, but is probably a slightly better shooter than Parsons was at this point in his career.  In any case, just like Parsons, Nolte presents major matchup problems for the opposition.  He's tall enough to shoot over guards and quick enough and possesses a good enough handle to drive past bigs.  Malcolm Brogdon, Joe Harris, and Justin Anderson present similar matchup problems, so teams will have to "pick their poison" and decide who their best wing defenders will cover... and I anticipate Nolte receiving the most favorable matchups given that poison selection.  So I'm optimistic about the kid, and guessing he sees around 17 minutes per game, scoring about 5 points per game.

-- Mike Tobey is, at this point at least, our only incoming big man.  He'll be the third big in the low post rotation, but like most freshman bigs, I seriously doubt that he'll be physically ready to handle the rigors of that assignment at the ACC level.  Many people expect more from Tobey than I do, but I'm just trying to be realistic.  Freshman big men just do not produce.  I think Tobey will play 12 or so minutes out of sheer necessity, but his scoring and rebounding won't be much more than 2 per game.  Look at Darion Atkins' production as a true freshman: 10.2 minutes, 2.3 points, 2.3 rebounds.  I expect about the same from Mike Tobey.

-- Paul Jesperson, sadly, struggled to find a cohesive role once the redshirt was burned this past season.  He's a shooter who was only able to notch 22.6% from distance.  His floor game was fine and he contributed decent minutes as a glue-type player, but at this point I'm just not sure where he fits in for next season.  Harris  is already entrenched at the 3, and Anderson and Nolte are both more talented swingmen.  Jespy figures to be the #4 wing player, which is a small role.  His minutes could rapidly increase if he speeds up his delivery, increases his confidence, and finds his stroke from three, but I'm not holding my breath.  I expect 10 minutes per game (which is honestly being generous) and negligible scoring and rebounding output.  If I'm wrong - and I sincerely hope I am - Jespy would cut into Evan Nolte's minutes and production that I detailed above.

-- Teven Jones will be Jontel Evans' caddy at the point guard position.  Any minutes Teven logs will be in Jontel relief, aside from two or three minutes each game when Brog slides over to the 1.  Jones is a relative unknown, but this caddy work will be vitally important, as he'll be the only true point guard returning to the roster for the 2013-14 season... but for 2012-13, I think he's just a direct-lineage backup.

Like I said, it's an ensemble cast.  Joe Harris will do a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to scoring, with production pitched in from Jontel Evans, Malcolm Brogdon, and the freshmen.  With such a perimeter-based offense, we'll be prone to cold shooting and scoring droughts from time to time.  We'll be dangerously shallow in the low post, which is a reason I'm predicting the four-guard look.  But Mitchell and Atkins should be able to chip in enough rebounds and garbage scoring to help buoy the team's efforts.  I think we'll be better defensively, trading off Sammy Zeglinski and Mike Scott (not a tremendous defensive player) for increased minutes for Brogdon and the addition of Justin Anderson.  We'll struggle against teams with great offensive bigs, but those teams are rare outside of Duke and UNC.  In all, I think we're looking at a roster capable of 18-20 wins with enough player development and hot shooting.  Is that an NCAA tournament bubble team?  Perhaps, but I think it looks more like an NIT team.

I will say one thing, however.  The teams doing well in this year's NCAA tournament have great players that fill each of these three key roles: slashing scorer (think Marquette's Darius Johnson-Odom), perimeter shooter (think Florida's Kenny Boynton), and rebounding specialist (think Baylor's Quincy Acy).  Next year, I think we'll have our own version of that holy trio:

SLASHER -- Jontel Evans / Malcolm Brogdon

SHOOTER -- Joe Harris

REBOUNDER -- Akil Mitchell

Not suggesting we'll make it to the Sweet Sixteen... but hell, why not?

I do know I'm excited to see the new guys in action, and I'm excited to see how Tony Bennett juggles this roster with the stakes increased after this year's tournament appearance.  Should be fun.