This season has already been a success. But a win today puts the cherry on top, and would really mean a lot as Tony Bennett guides Virginia basketball toward gaining traction on a national level.
Reasons why I think we'll win today:
-- The pack line. If we play it well, it could really frustrate Florida.
-- Mike Scott. He'll be the best player on the floor. Not the most explosive, most athletic, not the best NBA prospect... but the best player in today's game.
-- Tony Bennett. He's not completely beyond reproach, but I have the utmost trust and faith in his ability on this stage.
-- Jontel Evans. I suddenly have a lot of faith in him right now. I think he'll be a key cog defensively, and also score us some crucial buckets driving the lane.
-- If yesterday was any indication (especially the Colorado/UNLV game), it's easier to slow things down in the NCAA tournament than it is to speed things up. We're better in a slow game. We are comfortable grinding along, whereas Florida is not.
-- If we can make them miss shots with our good defense, they won't be able to set up their press. If the trends from our regular season hold true, Florida will shoot a lower percentage against us, and they won't score enough points to work in their comfort zone.
-- ACC > SEC. They are battle-hardened, but so are we... coming out of a better basketball league.
-- The crowd should be pulling for us, as we are the underdog. Actually, it'll be a fairly empty gym, given that it's the first game in Omaha today. Empty gyms hurt shooters (as do pressure situations), and Florida relies on its shooting more than we do.
-- We are better in road/neutral games (9-6 record) than is Florida (9-8 record). It's close, though.
-- Against marquee opponents, we keep games close. Three-point loss to Duke, two three-point losses to Florida State, three-point loss to UNC. We're due a breakthrough win in one of these games, and timing is everything.
-- Florida has been defensively challenged this season. They don't play good D. This could help us score more easily, which helps us prevent fast breaks and get our defense set. It's all part of a very important winning recipe.
-- Experience/leadership. Walker is their only senior. We have two 5th year seniors in Mike Scott and Sammy Zeglinski.
Reasons why I am skeptical:
-- Their three-pointers. They go bombs away, and if they're connecting, they can pile up points very quickly. Because of their high shooting percentage from trifecta, they have the nation's second-most efficient offense.
-- They are going to press off of made buckets, and we typically do not handle the press very well.
-- Their athletes. We can't match them.
-- Long rebounds off of missed threes tend to go in favor of the team that can be quicker to those loose balls. That's Florida, not UVA. They'll jack up threes all day and have a potential advantage in rebounding those misses.
-- Their shooting ability and offensive acumen. We can't compare.
-- Erving Walker. If Jontel can't contain this jet, we are going to be in for a long day.
-- Erik Murphy. He feels like the wildcard in this game. Can Mike or Akil guard him out to the perimeter? Can we affect his shot with our close-outs from the pack line? If Murphy is hitting threes, it likely means we're leaking oil.
-- Billy Donovan. Dude has won two national championships.
-- It's freaking Florida. College basketball blueblood. We haven't beaten a team this good all year, even when we were at full strength.
-- Depth. We don't have any. They have some.
-- Raw talent. Players develop during their careers, but I do think star ratings can show a relative measure of raw basketball ability. All seven of our players who will see the floor today were rated as three-star prospects coming out of high school. Florida's star ratings:
- Kenny Boynton -- 5-star
- Bradley Beal -- 5-star
- Erving Walker -- 3-star
- Erik Murphy -- 4-star
- Patric Young -- 5-star
- Mike Rosario -- 4-star
- Casey Prather -- 4-star
- Cody Larson -- 3-star
- Scottie Wilbekin -- 2-star
-- Our average is 3.0 stars across the squad we'll put on the court today. Their average is 3.89 stars. If you just look at their top seven vs. our top seven, the difference becomes 3.0 star average for us and 4.29 for Florida. They out-star us by 9 total stars in the top seven players. This is a big discrepancy.
-- Tournament experience. They have been here before. We have not.
We've heard so much about how Bennettball translates well to the tournament environment. That didn't come to pass in the ACC tournament, but that was against a familiar foe who was playing with a level of desperation we could not match. Today's game is a different level of tournament, a different stage, and the desperation should be equal on both sides. We'll see just how good Bennettball works in the NCAA tournament setting, here, today.
A win would be huge, a loss would be okay (it has still been a great program-building season), but getting blown out... would be difficult to swallow.
Let's get this done.
GO HOOS!
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