For 18 minutes yesterday...

...we saw what this team is going to look like next season, without Mike Scott.  And you know what?  It looked pretty damn good.

Sadly, Mike Scott lost his battle for ACC POTY yesterday, I think.

I'm not trying to bang on Mike Scott, nor am I trying to give short shrift to a hard-fought game against a vastly more talented team, nor am I trying to shift focus from this great season in which we are inching our way ever closer to our first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007.  But I've said it before, and if you're going to continue to read and follow this blog, you need to always understand it to be true: With me, it's always about looking ahead to the future and dreaming about increased success.

What I saw yesterday - despite rebounding woes against what is probably the best rebounding team in all of college basketball - was a four-guard (really, two-guard / two-wing) offense, running Bennettball efficiently and effectively.  Jontel Evans ate [UNC point guards] Kendall Marshall and Stilman White alive, both defensively and offensively off the bounce.  Joe Harris chipped in his best jack-of-all-trades performance, proving he's capable of serving as the face of the franchise moving into the 2012-13 season.  Darion Atkins proved he's a burgeoning big man, realizing his potential in rapid fashion.  Paul Jesperson showed that he belonged on the floor and in that game -- his confidence is growing with every minute he plays.  Malcolm Brogdon showed his defensive chops and his ability to find points for us by attacking the basket.  All together, it was a cohesive, controlled, balanced effort that held us in the game with our ACC POTY candidate in serious foul trouble and sputtering badly.  It was ultimately a frustratingly close defeat, but it all bodes very well for the future.

I'm enjoying eating crow over Jontel Evans.

Moreover, given the evidenced recruiting patterns and the effort to transition Mike Scott from a true 4 to more of a 3/4-type "power wing," I think we're seeing something come into focus: Tony Bennett isn't "making due" with this lack of bigs.  I think this is the way he wants the team to be built -- one true post player (Atkins, maybe Mitchell, Sene, Mike Tobey) on the floor, with a power wing (Mike Scott, maybe Mitchell, soon to be Justin Anderson), a versatile swingman (Joe Harris, Evan Nolte) or a long-lengthed spot-up shooter (Jesperson), a combo guard with 3-point ability (Zeglinski, Brog), and a point guard who can create offense off the dribble (Jontel Evans, Teven Jones).

Evan Nolte: Joe Harris 2.0

I kinda had a hunch we'd be pretty good next year, but now I have some degree of confidence in that fact.  Year four of Bennettball, the systems having taken full root, the hand-picked Bennett recruits being the only players on the roster...  It's going to be a balanced team with a weakness in defending great post scorers (but really, how many of those do we face?), but the ability to really take care of the ball, shoot from the perimeter, and run the packline defense with quickness and active hands and feet.  We'll get pummeled inside from time to time, but the pack D and the 3-point shot are the great equalizers.

I think this year's team is a Tournament team.  8-, 9-, or 10-seed, winning its first game and hanging tough in its second.

But now, I think next year's team is also a Tournament team.

And under Tony Bennett, the successes begin to string together and elevate our program to heights not seen since the early '90s.  Now more than ever, I have faith in our head basketball coach.  We played well with Mike Scott on the bench, and it was more than just encouraging... it was enlightening, eye-opening, and inspiring.  For 18 minutes, we saw the future, and it was bright.

Wahooze on the Trail: Offensive Line

Wahooze on the Trail continues with a look at the big men in the trenches, the Offensive line. UVA is coming off a good year recruiting wise, so the O-Line might not get the kind of attention it did in recruiting last season. That being said there are some good names that the Hoos are targeting on the line this season. It appears that most of the targeting will remain in state however as the coaching staff seems to prefer getting lower level in state kids to develop rather than chasing the big time out of state names. That being said since the list is so small there are a few other out of state targets on the list this year. Enough talk, let’s get into it.

Parker Osterloh                                6-6 270lbs.          Williamsburg, VA            Warhill

                Osterloh is the top lineman in Virginia in what is an exceptionally shallow class. A very tall tackle, Osterloh has excellent mobility for a kid his size. Most of his highlights are in run blocking where his mobility can be used to his advantage. The way the offense at UVA tends to be going though, he will be used more in pass protection. His height could work to a disadvantage in that regard as he will have a tougher time getting down to gain leverage. However the coaching staff seems to love his footwork and his pass protection abilities. I have nothing but confidence in the staff to both fill out his frame and improve his technique to make him a dominant pass blocker as well as run blocker. He has the mobility that you really can’t teach for a kid his size.  Osterloh currently has offers from VT and UVA as well as JMU. He is drawing some interest from out of state schools, but as he is not a dominant, national level talent I don’t expect him to get out of Virginia. I think UVA is in great shape here for an in state battle with the Hokies.

Probable Destination: UVA. I think there are several reasons UVA will win out but the most important is development. UVA is starting to become known for developing offensive linemen. Look at just the last 7 years. We have had 3 linemen drafted in the first round, (Ferguson, Albert, Monroe) and produced multiple other successful lineman, (Paztor, Barker) and now two bookends that will most likely end up in the NFL (Moses, Aboushi). It’s hard to turn down that kind of success.

Braxton Pfaff                                     6-5 290lbs.          Lynchburg, VA                   Liberty Christian

                That school sound familiar? Yes that is where Mike Rocco went when he was in school. Will that be a factor? Maybe. As of now it looks like this is going to turn into a battle once again between the in state schools.  That being said thanks to his proximity to Charlottesville and his relationship with the Rocco’s Pfaff has made a ton of visits to UVA for football games and seems to love the atmosphere. Will that work in the Hoos favor. I think absolutely. Pfaff will most likely be in the 3 star range but has a ton of potential to develop. This seems to be exactly the kind of lineman that the coaching staff wants to acquire and develop.

Probable Destination: UVA. I think the connection with the Rocco’s is too strong to pass up. Barring a good pitch from Richmond Pfaff should join the fold.

Mike McGlinchey                            6-9 280lbs.          Philadelphia, PA              William Penn Charter

                McGlinchey is one of the big out of state targets for this season. He has incredible size already for a junior and is drawing interest from some big time programs. McGlinchey holds offers from such powerhouses as Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin, not to mention both Pitt and Penn State. If UVA is to land this big fish they are going to need to have a lot of breaks. One of which could come tomorrow when he is here for Junior Day. Surprisingly McGlinchey looks very lean for 280 pounds which makes his potential that much higher. UVA will have to sell its line development well and hope for the best.

Probable Destination: Boston College. Surprisingly I think BC has a pretty reasonable shot here. McGlinchey has visited twice already and seems to enjoy it. He wants to get this done early so any lead BC has will be to their advantage.

John Montelus                                 6-5 295lbs.          Everett, MA                       Everett

                Montelus is the other big time out of state prospect the Hoos have offered. While there is mutual interest I think there is much more from the UVA side than from Montelus. Just how much traction they get could be a big factor, especially since some big school like USC are about to come knocking on his door. The leader in the clubhouse appears to be BC at this point but it will quickly turn into hometown vs. big time. I think that sadly might eliminate the Hoos from contention. That being said Montelus would be a great prospect to get. Already a solid size he is the kind of player that could in theory see some PT as a true freshman. Think Morgan Moses but smaller. Wherever he goes he has a chance to step in right away and be good. That will have to be the angle UVA sells him on, but how many other schools can do that?

Probable Destination:  West Virginia. I'm not entirely sure why but they seem to be taking the lead. They are relatively close to him but not a "local" option by any means. If Montelus sees them as an up and coming program, which isn't unfortunately that far off, he might want to get in for the ride.

Marcell Lazard                                  6-6 293lbs.          Bloomfield, NJ                  Bloomfield

                Lazard is most likely going to be a 3 star recruit out of New Jersey, but has already received some big offers, but interestingly not one from in state Rutgers.  Recently Lazard listed his top two as Miami and West Virginia, with UConn, Michigan, and Virginia as other possibilities. UVa obviously has some work to do in this department but is still right there. The one thing the Hoos do have in their favor is that Lazard wants to go to a good academic school and the pending investigation surrounding the Miami program. That being said I think Miami will be tough to beat in the end. Lazard has the ideal size for the position and would be a great prospect for anyone to get.

Probable Destination: Miami. Barring the university getting shut down I think the tradition, academics, and coaching is going to be too much to overcome.

Brandon Kublanow                         6-3 290lbs.          Marietta, GA                     Walton

                Kublanow is the only prospect the Hoos are looking at that plays guard. He is the number 243 player in the Class of 2013 and also has some big offers. In addition to UVA Kublanow has offers from Vandy, Florida, and of course Georgia. It looks like the Dawgs are going to be mighty tough to beat. However Kublanow has listed two main factors, academics and winning. This could help UVA’s chances if they put together a solid season, but as of now this is looking like a long shot.

Probable Destination: Georgia. It has to be. The dawgs are on the upswing again and have the state on lockdown. Good luck getting him out of there.

Ladies Basketball Update

We haven't talked much about the women's team on here, so I thought some readers might appreciate a look at how their season has played out so far.

Coming into her first season at UVA, new coach Joanne Boyle faced a daunting task of replacing a Hall of Fame coaching legend in Debbie Ryan, who was forced out by the administration* after 34 seasons with the Lady Hoos. I could write all day about the idiocy of this move, but that doesn't mean Boyle is any less of a good coach and certainly was welcomed by the school/team.

After an impressive early season upset of perennial powerhouse Tennessee, the team has done a good job staying in the top half of the extremely-tough ACC. Basically, the ladies have beaten the bad and mediocre teams while failing to pull off any upsets over the elite teams like Miami, Duke, and Maryland. Sitting at 7-7 in the conference, with two very winnable remaining games, the Hoos are in decent shape to make it off the bubble and into the NCAA tournament. Currently ESPN projects them as an 8 seed, which would be an improvement over last year's team and a continuation of the type of moderate success at which Ryan had the team in the 00s. Of course, everyone involved with the program would like to see a return to the late 80s-early 90s type of team, but Boyle should be commended for avoiding even a small regressive step in her first year.

They swept the Hokies, always a good thing (Photo: virginiasports.com)

Assuming they take care of business against Wake and FSU, look for the ladies to finish the season in the NCAAs, where they could easily win a game or two (though being an 8 seed would match them up against a #1 in the second round...). Boyle also has a nice recruiting class lined up for next year, with three highly ranked guards pledged to join the Lady Cavs' roster. Ultimately, the team will be judged more critically in the long-term, you don't fire one of the best coaches the sport and your school have ever seen to maintain "pretty good" status, but for now, things are looking on track for Boyle and the Lady Hoos. Their final home game is Friday evening at 6:30pm, go check them out.

*Note: Officially, Debbie "retired." However, it was a move forced on her by the athletic administration - even if it wasn't public. We trust our sources.

Win and In

I've been sick as a dog these last two days, and haven't had a good chance (or the energy) to give a proper overview of tonight's revenge game against the Hokies.

But let me take a quick second to boil it down to the simplest point possible:

-- A win tonight coupled with a win at Maryland on 3/4 or a win in the first round of the ACC Tournament puts us in the Tournament.

-- A loss tonight would set up a scenario in which we either need to beat UNC here on Saturday, or beat FSU here on 3/1 in order to secure a bid to the Big Dance.


This is Virginia Tech's third game in six days, and Victor Davila is likely out for the game and thus the Hokies are down to just two true post players.  We lost to Tech when we shot 1-for-14 from three.  I don't expect that to happen again, and I'm looking for our defense, Mike Scott, and our superior coaching to carry the day in tonight's game.

Get this one, and we are in very good shape.  In front of the 8-ball yet again.  Lose it, and... well... we need to dial up a Tarheel- or Seminole-sized upset.

Mike Scott's calendar goes straight from March 31st to April 2nd; nobody fools Mike Scott.

An excerpt from Eamonn Brennan's latest Bubble Watch on ESPN:

The Cavaliers can't afford to be careless. Last week's 12-point loss at Clemson is the kind of thing that causes people to poke around your once-surefire resume with a finer-toothed comb. Once that happens, you find but one good win (Michigan at home Nov. 29), a smattering of questionable losses (Va. Tech at home, TCU on a neutral floor, at Clemson) and a nonconference strength-of-schedule figure (No. 229) that will make the selection committee wince. Fortunately, in the form of home games vs. UNC and Florida State, Virginia has two really good chances to seal this thing up for good. A win in either game would lock it up, and make the result of Tuesday night's road trip to Blacksburg a nonfactor. But if the Cavs stumble down the stretch, nothing is guaranteed.

HOOS 71, Murrland 44

My notes from yesterday's exactly-what-we-needed blowout victory over the Terps:

Commander In Chief

• Maryland is likely to end up as an RPI Top-100 team, so the win was a pretty good one.  The fact that it was a bounce-back win that might catapult us forward down the stretch, and the fact that we buried them in the second half despite being short-handed and with our starting fullback point guard in foul trouble, even better.  It was a must-win, and we got it in style.
• Tons of credit to Mike Scott, who shook off his recent penchant for second half disappearing acts and instead spurred us into that 16-0 run to take control.
• We held an offensive talented Maryland team to 13 second half points.  Love that.
• I think Sammy Zeglinski worked himself off the schneid a little bit.  Having the ball in his hands with Evans on the bench in the second half helped him a lot, I believe.  We need to put Sammy at the point a bit more often -- I think it really helped him to forget the slump and just play.
• Malcolm Brogdon, delivering.  It's a welcome sight, and a very positive portend for the rest of the season and especially next season, when we'll need a #2 scoring option to work alongside Joe Harris.
• Jesperson hit a three!  That's gotta be helpful for the young man's confidence.  I hope he's got about five more locked and loaded for this stretch run.
• Joe Harris gave us 17 minutes, and could have given another 10 or 12 more.  He looked much more comfortable with that mummy hand than he did against Clem's Son.  It's been eight days since the injury, the swelling has to be down and the pain subsiding.  I think he'll be back to 75-80% for the Virginia Tech game and hopefully up to around 90% for the UNC game next weekend.  We need scoring punch from Joey Hoops, but with Evans and Brog stepping up, it's maybe a little less crucial.
• I was honestly surprised by the effort and confidence on display in this game.  After that loss to Klempsun, I thought we'd come out looking rattled and tentative against Maryland.  Even in the face of those bullshit hail mary threes they kept nailing, we held our composure.  I credit Tony Bennett.  The man is a good coach.

Welcome back?

Tuesday is the Virginia Tech rematch.  Nervous about that game.  Hopefully we can roll in there and handle our business in a revenge game against a team that oozes mediocrity.  But we know the turkeys will be "up" to beat us and spoil our season, like we did to them last year.

GO HOOS!

Baseball Drops the Opener

The Hoos dropped their season opener 5-3 to the Boston College Eagles today in a game that taught us a few things about the team already:

This kind of thing

Brandon Kline was a nonsurprising starter today but getting the call behind the plate was true freshman Nate Irving. This is the first time in a while that the Hoos have started a catcher that had not had meaningful experience behind the plate. While Irving is a talented stick at the plate, handling a college baseball rotation is something you really need to be eased into. Look at the transition from Franco Valdez to John Hicks. Hicks was a better catcher because he was allowed to have a year being the sunday catcher behind Franco. While that is not at all an indictment of Irving as a catcher it is something to note. Today Branden Kline gave up 4 runs, all but one unearned. An inning was allowed to continue because of a passed ball scored to Irving after a Kline strikeout. One batter later Spenser (what a douchy spelling) Payne blasted a 3 run homer. Kline was run after that. While I have no doubts in Irving's ability to handle the pitching staff, his mishandling behind the plate really hurt us today.

Welcome Back

A surprise starter for me at least was Stephen Bruno at 3rd hitting 3rd and Mike Papi in Right hitting 4th. Papi hitting fourth quite frankly stunned me, but it seemed to work out quite nicely today as he scored twice. It seems that Bruno is healthy and ready to go this season which is a great sign as he provides quite a bit of pop from the middle of the order. Other lineup surprises included Keith Werman getting the number 2 spot in the order (which I don't expect to last) and Reed Gragnani getting the nod in center, ahead of Mitchell Shifflett. It will be interesting to see how the lineup shakes out for the rest of the season but if I had to guess I would expect to see a shuffling for tomorrow's game. When it's all said and done ideally it will look like this:

1. Chris Taylor
2. Mike Papi
3. Stephen Bruno
4. Jared King
5. Reed Gragnani
6. Derek Fisher
7. Nate Irving
8. Colin Harrington
9. Keith Werman

This I feel will be a very formidable bunch. One last interesting thing to note was that at the end of the game Nick Howard pinch hit for Keith with 2 outs in the 9th. Obviously Keith is not known for his power but that is a pretty damning assessment of your hitting abilities if a true freshman bumps you out of the lineup in a big spot. While Keith is good at doing the little things it appears the coaching staff is still a little tenative with his overall offensive abilities.

The first pitcher out of the bullpen today was - you guessed it! - Kyle Crockett!! Confused? Me too. Especially because the kid looked damn good. 5 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs, and 3 Ks. That to me says he is one of your better pitchers. That being said that has me pretty damn excited for what we must be rolling out on the mound in the rotation. Perhaps this is the season Scott Silverstein lives up to his bill. Should be interesting. But I would love to know what is going on with Crockett not being in the rotation, considering I thought he would be a lock.

The last thing that stood out to me was the absence of Mitchell Shifflett. Though he struggled in the Blue Orange World Series I thought he would get a shot to start out of the gate, though strong games from Gragnani, Papi, and Harrington say otherwise. I'm assuming he will see some time this weekend but maybe not. He has a ton of potential but if he can't get on base none of it gets realized.



Let's hope things get better tomorrow. Today wasn't bad, more frustrating than anything else. Hoos play tomorrow against Coastal Carolina.

Mid-February Bubble Guide

Consider this the next installation in the series that began with Welcome to the Bubble and continued with the February Rooting Guide...

Right now, we are exactly where we were afraid we'd end up -- squarely on the bubble.

With tired legs, shaken confidence, rebounding struggles, a tendency to cough up costly turnovers, shooting woes, scoring malaise, and the top-notch defense looking suddenly second-notch, our worry is totally and completely appropriate.

The Resumé
The good news is that our profile remains strong.  A decent RPI ranking, a very good 7-3 record against the RPI top 100, solid scores in Pomeroy and Sagarin ratings, and the injury excuse in case we start getting banged on for our recent losses.  Mike Scott gives us star power, Tony Bennett gives us coaching cred.  Our win over Michigan gives us a signature win to pimp, and two home games against ACC elite gives us two more chances for marquee victories.  More good news: the bubble, from a big picture perspective, is softening.  There aren't a whole lot of slam-dunk at-large contenders, and there aren't so many vogue mid-majors, which is good.

The bad news is our weak out-of-conference schedule is going to be a major sticking point for the committee, and the fact that we're stuck at 6 ACC wins, and a 6-10, 7-9, or even 8-8 conference record isn't going to earn an at-large bid.  I could see us getting in with an 8-8 finish and a win on Thursday in the ACC Tournament followed up by a loss on Friday to Duke, UNC, or FSU.  But I think that scenario is the absolutely worst we can finish and still have hope for a tournament bid.  Please know that it's going to be important that we at least get to a game against one of the ACC's "big three" in the ACC Tournament, as that extra game against an RPI top-25 squad will help buoy our own RPI and strength of schedule metrics.

Tomorrow's game at home against Maryland is about as must-win as a must-win gets when it's not literally an elimination game.  We're already a little bit behind the 8-ball, but a loss tomorrow makes that 8-ball the size of a small jupiter moon.

Maryland
@ Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Florida State
@ Maryland

Winning three of these games (especially if one of the wins is against UNC or FSU) puts us in the Big Dance, I believe.  Therefore, I am changing the "magic number" to 3 in our resumé window to the right.

Consider the Possibilities
Ask yourself this honest question: Which of the following scenarios would you rather see play out?

• We scrape into the Tournament as an 8- or 9-seed, with Syracuse or Kentucky looming as the 1-seed we'd face in the 2nd round.
• We scrape into the Tournament as a 10- or 11-seed, face a solid Notre Dame / Vanderbilt type of team in the 1st round, with the chance to earn a potential 2nd round date with a team like Michigan State, Marquette, or Baylor should we spring the 1st round upset.
• We scrape into the Tournament as one of the last at-large teams, and play a play-in game in Dayton on Tuesday or Wednesday night.  Play a team like Illinois or Washington in the play-in, then advance as a 12-seed to face a 5-seed like Gonzaga or Murray State in the 1st round, with a team like Indiana or UNLV looming in the 2nd round.
• We miss the Tournament, but make the NIT, where we host two or three games on our way to the semifinals in Madison Square Garden, with Joe Harris' hand and Assane Sene's foot healing nicely along the way.

Obviously, we want to rally down the stretch, knock off UNC and/or FSU in our home games against those two, and surge into the NCAA Tournament as a 6- or 7-seed.  But right now, I don't see that as being very likely.  One of the above four scenarios are much more realistic, I'd say.  (But the lifelong Virginia fan inside of me half expects an epic collapse down the stretch and an explosive triple-overtime flame-out in the first round of the NIT, probably against a team I hate, like VCU.  I've been conditioned - like a beaten dog - to expect the worst as a Virginia fan.)

Bracket Math

68 teams make the NCAA Tournament.  33 of those teams make it in with auto bids by way of winning their conference or conference tournament.  That leaves 35 at-large spots.  Obviously, we need to hope for very few conference championship upsets, especially from mid-major leagues that have a team or teams that are locks for an at-large bid.  (An example of this is the Ohio Valley Conference, where Murray State is a lock but the rest of the conference needs to win the championship in order to go to the Big Dance.  If Murray State loses in that conference tournament, they'll still get an at-large, while some shit-eating mid-major crap team like Tennessee Tech would steal one of the auto bids, thus effectively reducing the number of available at-large bids for the bubble teams... like us.)

Essentially, we want teams from the list of tournament locks [below] to win their conference tournaments.  Meanwhile, let's add up those tournament locks to see how many at-large bids are left for teams like UVA...

• ACC -- Duke, North Carolina, Florida State
• Big 12 -- Kansas, Missouri, Baylor
• Big East -- Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame
• B1G -- Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin
• SEC -- Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt
• Atlantic 10 -- Temple
• Mountain West -- UNLV, San Diego State
• Missouri Valley -- Wichita State
• C-USA -- Memphis, Southern Miss
• WCC -- St. Mary's, Gonzaga
• Ohio Valley -- Murray State
• Ivy -- Harvard
• Sun Belt -- Middle Tennessee State

That leaves 20 conferences that will only put one team - the conference champion - into the Tournament.  Add those 20 to the 30 teams I listed above, and that's 50.  That means 18 bids are available to bubble teams and/or any teams that upset the above-listed teams to win those conference championships.

Assuming at least one or two of those unfortunate [for us] conference tournament upsets, we're looking at trying to make it in as one of the 15 or 16 bubble teams that are extended a bid.  We will be competing for those bids with:

• Miami
• NC State
• Iowa State
• Kansas State
• Texas
• Seton Hall
• UConn
• Cincinnati
• West Virginia
• Illinois
• Minnesota
• Purdue
• Northwestern
• California
• Washington
• Colorado
• Arizona
• Oregon
• Alabama
• Ole Miss
• Arkansas
• St. Louis
• Xavier
• Dayton
• UMass
• St. Joe's
• New Mexico
• Creighton
• BYU

Folks, this is not rocket science.  Pull against those teams listed above, as there are 15 or 16 available bids for us and those 29 teams.  We need to finish in the top 50% of those teams.  We need to see our sweet cream rise to the top in that milkshake.

Meanwhile, pull for the teams we've played and especially the teams we've beaten -- it never hurts to have that RPI bolstered at all times.

And pull against VCU.  Just because.