April 19, 2017

Baseball!

Sorry for the lack of baseball posts... until now.  Boom.

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/va/sports/m-basebl/auto_pdf/2016-17/stats/season_stats.pdf

Let's take a look at this...

-- We have three weekend starters with sub-4.00 ERAs in Casey, Murderer Murdock, and Haseley. I feel really strongly that we've found our top three guys, guys who will carry us for the next two months. None of the three are really a bonafide 'ace,' per se... but they each possess soaring upside.

Trust me, we're lucky to have the Murderer in
orange and blue for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
Casey, meanwhile, is enjoying a triumphant ascension to his
rightful spot on Friday night.

(Also, this is my favorite UVA baseball uni.)

-- Bettinger is having a VERY good season. He's a real weapon in long relief. I really like him paired with Murdock, complementing Noah's raw overwhelming stuff with Betty's experience and savvy.

-- Doyle is an 'okay' closer, by UVA standards. He's good enough.

-- Bennett Sousa can eat some innings in relief. He's had some good outings.

-- To me, Chesdin Harrington is one of the unsung bright spots on this year's team. Really solid pitcher, especially against lesser competition (like we may face in the NCAA Tournament setting.)

-- Lynch and Sperling struggled as the Friday/Saturday starters, but have settled in nicely (so far) as mid-week guys. We'll need their arms in the tournament setting; and their experience as starters coupled with rebuilt confidence could/should serve us well.

The 6-foot-6 Sperling - at his best - can be intimidating and overpowering.
A real weapon as a #4/#5 starter.

-- It's hard to remember a time when our staff went a legit nine-deep with proven performers. Jack Roberts makes 10, though I'm not sure we'd ever trust him in an important game.

-- Offensively, the case can be made that this is Brian O'Connor's best lineup at UVA.

-- Haseley and Ginger Avenger Pavin Smith, fuhgettaboutit. Studs.

-- Caleb Knight has been a revelation at catcher. Hope he's able to keep this up thru the month of June.

-- Cam Simmons, Robbie Coman, Ernie Clement, all swinging capable bats. Ernie, specifically, is continuing to emerge from his early season sorta-semi-slump.

-- Jake McCarthy is an athletic marvel. I love what he brings to the table to complement the other guys.

(Also, this is my second-favorite UVA baseball uni.)

-- When guys like Weber, Eikhoff, and Novak are your "worst" hitters, you're in pretty god damn good shape.

-- .974 team fielding percentage. Slightly below BOC's best defensive teams, but very very solid. (For comparison --- 2012 - .972 / 2013 - .969 / 2014 - .981 / 2015 - .971 / 2016 - .970)

-- We're currently 30-9, 10-8 in the ACC, with weekend series against Notre Dame, at FSU, Miami, and at GT looming. It won't be easy to finish with a winning record in the ACC, but ND, Miami, and GT are having down years, and FSU is also a step off of their normally torrid pace. I predict something in the neighborhood of 7-5 during that span, yielding a 17-13 conference record when the dust settles.

-- We've been dominant in mid-week games, and with talents like Sperling and Lynch drawing those starts, I see no reason to expect anything less than success in upcoming games against JMU, Radford, Liberty, and Richmond. So I guess I'm predicting a 41-14 regular season record. That's maybe just outside national seed territory, but it's absolutely in range to allow us to host our first round regional.

-- The ACC tourney in Louisville is going to be beastly. Louisville is a strong team, playing with a big home field advantage. Clemson and Carolina are both juggernauts. Wake can beat anyone they play. We'll have our work cut out for us if we want to bring home that chip.



-- Current national seeds are likely: Oregon State (30-2), Louisville (31-4), Clemson (30-6), UNC (29-7), Texas Tech (31-8), TCU (28-7), Arizona (26-9), and... there's an opening for that #8 slot. Fullerton, LSU, Kentucky, Auburn, Florida, Michigan, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Virginia... that's your scrum. (I'm probably wrong about the SEC teams -- at least two of them will land national seeds, based on SoS.)

-- My newly-adjusted expectations for this season: Good showing in the ACCT, host a regional, win said regional, road team in the super regional, 50-50 shot at advancing to Omaha. I'd like our chances against any of the non-SEC and non-ACC teams in that setting.


GO HOOS!

April 5, 2017

Talent Level in the Final Four

Let's take a look...


-->
2017 North Carolina
PlayerYearRank
Nate Britt2013121
Isaiah Hicks201316
Kennedy Meeks201358
Justin Jackson20149
Theo Pinson201415
Joel Berry201430
Luke Maye2015156
Tony Bradley201627
Seventh Woods201649
53.44

Notes/thoughts:

  • One player in the top-10 of his class.
  • Six total top-50 kids.
  • Only two of the nine contributors from outside the top-100.
  • Three key seniors.
  • I would say the main strength of this UNC team, aside from their size and ability up front, is the fact that the junior backcourt duo of Jackson and Berry held a very steady rudder in tournament play.
  • A 53.44 average ranking probably positions Carolina as one of the top three or four most-talented teams in the nation (behind probably Duke and Kentucky, maybe Kansas).
  • The key to this championship was retaining the talent for two or three seasons so it could coalesce.  One-and-dones (OADs) are great, but they don't tend to win championships, 2015 Duke and 2012 Kentucky notwithstanding.  (Okay, maybe teams built on the backs of OADs win 20% of the championships.  I'll allow that.)

-->
2017 Gonzaga
PlayerYearRankTransfer?
Przemek Karnowski2012451
Nigel Williams-Goss201331Washington
Johnathan Williams201345Missouri
Jordan Mathews2013131California
Josh Perkins201467
Silas Melson2014218
Zach Collins201633
Killian Tillie2016122
137.25

Notes/thoughts:
  • Zero top-10 players.
  • Three top-50s.
  • Four out of eight contributors from outside the top-100.
  • Four key seniors.  Safe to say this was a veteran-led team, despite major contributions from [likely] OAD Zach Collins.
  • The Zags got lucky with a few things in their roster construction: Karnowski's redshirt season and subsequent development into an NBA-level big man, three incoming transfers making hay, and finding a unicorn in Collins.
  • Nigel Williams-Goss was the engine that drove this machine, but it was the combo of Karnowski and Collins that set Gonzaga apart from its peers.  That's a massive aligning of the stars in the low post.
  • Williams-Goss, by the way, wasn't an elite player.  His role on this Gonzaga team made him seem elite, but I don't think he ever really lived up that that distinction.  Frank Mason III (Kansas), Lonzo Ball (UCLA), Josh Hart (Villanova), Luke Kennard (Duke), Trevon Bluiett (Xavier), Jawun Evans (Oklahoma State), De'Aaron Fox (Kentucky), Devonte' Graham (Kansas), Malik Monk (Kentucky), Donovan Mitchell (Louisville), Sindarius Thornwell (South Carolina), Allonzo Trier (Arizona), Monte Morris (Iowa State), E.C. Matthews (Rhode Island)... these guards were all more dynamic / better than Williams-Goss.  I'm pretty sure the NBA agrees with me.  Slide one of those 14 other guys into NWG's spot with the Zags, and I'm pretty sure they would have been cutting down the nets. 
  • At 137.25, I'm guessing this Zags roster ranks somewhere in the #20-#25 range, nationally.  I think we saw that brought to bear in Monday night's championship game, as Gonzaga lost more than its share of 50-50 balls and wilted down the stretch against Carolina's superior athleticism.

-->
2017 Oregon
PlayerYearRankTransfer?
Dylan Ennis2011451Rice / Villanova
Dillon Brooks201497
Jordan Bell2014101
Casey Benson2014187
Chris Boucher201511
Tyler Dorsey201528
Kavell Bigby-Williams20163
Payton Pritchard201654
Keith Smith2016104
115.11

Notes/thoughts:

  • One top-10 player.
  • Three top-50s.
  • Four of nine from outside the top-100.
  • One key senior -- journeyman-turned-hero Dylan Ennis.
  • A lot of player development with this team; Dillon Brooks went from just inside the top-100 to Pac-12 Conference Player of the Year and Jordan Bell went from #101 to an athletic low post beast and surefire NBA draftee.  Credit to Dana Altman and his staff.
  • Important to note that the Ducks played the 2017 Tournament without its second-most talented player, Chris Boucher.
  • Also important to note that its most talented player, Bigby-Williams, was merely a role player, often logging less than 10 mpg.
  • I think the key to their tournament run was Tyler Dorsey, who proved that talent often does elevate a team.
  • This team benefitted from its upperclassmen.  Ennis was a 26-year old 5th year senior.  Brooks and Bell were juniors.
  • I think Oregon would have won the national championship minus Boucher's injury.  The best team I saw this season was Kansas, and we all know the monumental mental hurdle they face in tournament play.  The second-best team I saw this season was Oregon with Boucher.  (Carolina, by the way, probably wasn't even in the top five until they stepped up in the final Four.  My top five for 2016-17: #1 Kansas, #2 Oregon with Boucher, #3 Good Duke, #4 Kentucky, #5 Villanova, #6 UNC.)


2017 South Carolina
PlayerYearRank
Sindarius Thornwell201333
Duane Notice2013309
Justin McKie2013340
P.J. Dozier201525
Chris Silva2015141
Sedee Keita2016113
Maik Kotsar2016347
Rakym Felder2016366
Hassani Gravett2016451
236.11

Notes/thoughts:

  • Zero top-10 players.
  • Two top-50s.
  • Seven of nine from outside the top-100.
  • Three key seniors.
  • It's hard to draw much info from looking at South Carolina.  They were this season's true Cinderella.  They were long and tough and played great defense, and got major scoring punch from Thornwell.
  • It's not hard to construct a roster that looks like this.  Most also-ran P5 teams look like this, in terms of recruiting rankings.  I bet Clemson looks a lot like this.  I bet Texas Tech looks a lot like this.  I bet Nebraska looks a lot like this.  I bet Arizona State looks a lot like this.  So, it's not hard to construct a roster that looks like this.  What's hard is finding and developing a once-in-a-lifetime superstar like Sindarius Thornwell while at the same time receiving superb coaching from a guy like Frank Martin.  Make no mistake --- this was Thornwell and Martin's Final Four run, and it was a miracle Final Four run.


With that setting the stage, let's take a quick look at 2017-18 Virginia, prior to any incoming transfers.


2017-18 Virginia
RecruitYearRank
Devon Hall2013123
Isaiah Wilkins2014145
Jack Salt2014353
Mamadi Diakite201533
Kyle Guy201638
Ty Jerome201644
Jay Huff201660
DeAndre Hunter201692
Marco Anthony2017235
124.78

Notes/thoughts:

  • Zero top-10 players.  Same as Gonzaga and South Carolina, but less than UNC and Oregon, who each had one.
  • Three top-50s.  Same as Gonzaga and Oregon, more than South Carolina (2), less than UNC (6).
  • Four of nine from outside the top-100.  We'll have more top-100 talent than Gonzaga or South Carolina, the same as Oregon, and less than UNC.
  • Two key seniors -- 5th year Devon Hall and 4th year Isaiah Wilkins, along with 4th year junior Jack Salt.  The problem is that our most experienced guys are our least talented guys.  You won't find many Final Four teams that receive the thrust of their talent from their sophomores, but that's exactly what we're looking at in 2016-17.
  • I want to focus on the Guy (38) / Jerome (44) backcourt.  In terms of combined talent, it trumps the Williams-Goss (31) / Perkins (67) backcourt at Gonzaga, the Ennis (unranked) / Dorsey (28) backcourt at Oregon, and the Thornwell (33) / Notice (309) backcourt at South Carolina.  Berry (30) / Jackson (9) at UNC was elite, of course.  [Interesting to note that each of this year's Final Four teams had at least one guard ranked inside the top-35 of his recruiting class.  Kyle Guy just missed that mark.]
  • I'm not suggesting that we're a Final Four team in 2016-17.  I'm merely pointing out that our talent level is getting to the point where the Final Four is a possibility... every... single... season...




March 28, 2017

2017-18: Tony Bennett's Most Talented Team Yet

You heard me.

My hypothesis: IF you allow that recruit rankings is a valid measure of a player's base talent level, AND minutes played is an accurate measure of the dosage of that talent upon the roster, THEN the 2017-18 Virginia basketball team will be the most talented team Tony Bennett has fielded.  And it's not close.

And - even though math is not my strength - I've got some math to back up my claim.

BOOOOOOOOOM.

Take a look at my pretty tables...


-->
Bennett's Recruits at Virginia
RecruitSchoolYearNatl Rank
Tristan SpurlockVirginia200973
Jontel EvansVirginia2009283
KT HarrellVirginia201047
James JohnsonVirginia201071
Joe HarrisVirginia2010132
Will ReganVirginia2010155
Akil MitchellVirginia2010248
Billy BaronVirginia2010308
Anthony GillSouth Carolina201195
Malcolm BrogdonVirginia201199
Paul JespersonVirginia2011114
Darion AtkinsVirginia2011unranked
Justin AndersonVirginia201250
Evan NolteVirginia201279
Mike TobeyVirginia201281
Taylor BarnetteVirginia2012243
Teven JonesVirginia2012245
Austin NicholsMemphis201322
Devon HallVirginia2013123
London PerrantesVirginia2013124
Darius ThompsonTennessee2013191
B.J. StithVirginia201498
Isaiah WilkinsVirginia2014145
Marial ShayokVirginia2014163
Jack SaltVirginia2014353
Mamadi DiakiteVirginia201533
Jarred ReuterVirginia2015158
Kyle GuyVirginia201638
Ty JeromeVirginia201644
Jay HuffVirginia201660
DeAndre HunterVirginia201692
Marco AnthonyVirginia2017235

Simple enough.  These are all of the guys Tony Bennett has recruited to UVA, to date.  The "Year" column was the year they were a high school recruit, thus it was the year they were ranked.  "Natl Rank" was their overall recruit ranking the year they were recruited.  I color coded the table so the intake years would be separated.  And, yes, the transfers are included.


Now, from most-talented to least-talented...

-->
Bennett's Virginia Recruits, Ranked
RecruitSchoolYearNatl Rank
#1Austin NicholsMemphis201322
#2Mamadi DiakiteVirginia201533
#3Kyle GuyVirginia201638
#4Ty JeromeVirginia201644
#5KT HarrellVirginia201047
#6Justin AndersonVirginia201250
#7Jay HuffVirginia201660
#8James JohnsonVirginia201071
#9Tristan SpurlockVirginia200973
#10Evan NolteVirginia201279
#11Mike TobeyVirginia201281
#12DeAndre HunterVirginia201692
#13Anthony GillSouth Carolina201195
#14B.J. StithVirginia201498
#15Malcolm BrogdonVirginia201199
#16Paul JespersonVirginia2011114
#17Devon HallVirginia2013123
#18London PerrantesVirginia2013124
#19Joe HarrisVirginia2010132
#20Isaiah WilkinsVirginia2014145
#21Will ReganVirginia2010155
#22Jarred ReuterVirginia2015158
#23Marial ShayokVirginia2014163
#24Darius ThompsonTennessee2013191
#25Marco AnthonyVirginia2017235
#26Taylor BarnetteVirginia2012243
#27Teven JonesVirginia2012245
#28Akil MitchellVirginia2010248
#29Jontel EvansVirginia2009283
#30Billy BaronVirginia2010308
#31Jack SaltVirginia2014353
#32Darion AtkinsVirginia2011unranked

[Projected] members of the 2017-18 team are in blue and orange, nimrod.


Okay, it's almost time for some comparative analysis.

The liberties I'm taking:
  • National Rank the year the player was recruited is a measure of the player's natural talent, prior to seasoning, development, and system integration within Virginia Basketball.  It's just a raw measure, not meant to be totally reflective of that player's value --- instead, it's just a measure of his natural tools.
  • Higher ranked players playing more minutes means we were putting more natural talent on the floor; therefore, Natl Rank x Minutes Played = Impact Value of that talent.  A higher-ranked recruit playing more minutes yields a higher value than a lower-ranked player playing the same minutes or a similarly-ranked player playing fewer minutes.
  • Player development, intangibles, "fit," and inherent value to the team is reflected by minutes played.  Coach doesn't / won't / wouldn't play players who hurt the team unless he had no other, better options available.
  • Raw, stupid, dumb, natural talent isn't changed.  Your recruiting ranking is your recruiting ranking.  Maybe you get bigger and stronger and more skilled, but you never really run faster or jump higher; your basketball acumen as measured as a high school senior is mostly the destiny you live out as a college player.  (I know there will be disagreement with this point, but I urge you to ask yourself: Why, then, do we ever care about recruiting rankings?  The answer is that raw, dumb, stupid, natural talent doesn't change.)

With that being said, let me restate my hypothesis here: IF you allow that recruit rankings is a valid measure of a player's base talent level, AND minutes played is an accurate measure of the dosage of that talent upon the roster, THEN the 2017-18 Virginia basketball team will be the most talented team Tony Bennett has fielded. And it's not close.


Let's take a look...

-->
2011-12
RecruitSchoolYearNatl Rank11-12min%Value
KT HarrellVirginia201047472080.0518.30
James JohnsonVirginia20107171370.013.03
Malcolm BrogdonVirginia201199996260.1646.98
Paul JespersonVirginia20111141142200.0515.69
Joe HarrisVirginia20101321329690.2464.78
Akil MitchellVirginia20102482487050.1826.81
Jontel EvansVirginia20092832839840.2428.85
Darion AtkinsVirginia2011unranked4002750.070.07
174.2540241.00204.51



-->
2012-13
RecruitSchoolYearNatl Rank12-13min%Value
Justin AndersonVirginia201250508410.1242.95
Evan NolteVirginia201279796940.1032.51
Mike TobeyVirginia201281814160.0619.37
Paul JespersonVirginia20111141149000.1337.58
Joe HarrisVirginia201013213211390.1744.58
Taylor BarnetteVirginia20122432432480.045.70
Teven JonesVirginia20122452454050.069.19
Akil MitchellVirginia201024824810690.1623.80
Jontel EvansVirginia20092832837540.1112.95
Darion AtkinsVirginia2011unranked4004070.060.06
187.5068731.00228.69



-->
2013-14
RecruitSchoolYearNatl Rank13-14min%Value
Justin AndersonVirginia201250507960.1138.32
Evan NolteVirginia201279792970.0413.12
Mike TobeyVirginia201281816680.0929.32
Anthony GillSouth Carolina201195957330.1030.76
Malcolm BrogdonVirginia2011999911630.1648.17
London PerrantesVirginia201312412411050.1541.98
Joe HarrisVirginia201013213210660.1539.33
Teven JonesVirginia20122452451250.022.67
Akil MitchellVirginia20102482489520.1319.98
Darion AtkinsVirginia2011unranked4003860.050.05
155.3072911.00263.71



-->
2014-15
RecruitSchoolYearNatl Rank14-15min%Value
Justin AndersonVirginia201250507240.1137.48
Evan NolteVirginia201279795900.0928.02
Mike TobeyVirginia201281815820.0927.46
Anthony GillSouth Carolina201195958590.1338.76
B.J. StithVirginia20149898630.012.82
Malcolm BrogdonVirginia2011999911050.1649.21
Devon HallVirginia20131231232440.0410.00
London PerrantesVirginia201312412410650.1643.50
Isaiah WilkinsVirginia20141451452640.049.97
Marial ShayokVirginia20141631634960.0717.41
Darion AtkinsVirginia2011unranked4007890.120.12
132.4567811.00264.75



-->
2015-16
RecruitSchoolYearNatl Rank15-16min%Value
Evan NolteVirginia201279792990.0413.05
Mike TobeyVirginia201281815810.0825.21
Anthony GillSouth Carolina2011959510370.1443.02
Malcolm BrogdonVirginia2011999912630.1751.71
Devon HallVirginia20131231238090.1130.49
London PerrantesVirginia201312412411620.1643.64
Isaiah WilkinsVirginia20141451457920.1127.49
Jarred ReuterVirginia20151581581210.023.99
Marial ShayokVirginia20141631635260.0716.97
Darius ThompsonTennessee20131911916480.0918.45
Jack SaltVirginia20143533531380.020.90
146.4573761.00274.91



-->
2016-17
RecruitSchoolYearNatl Rank16-17min%Value
Austin NicholsMemphis20132222160.000.89
Mamadi DiakiteVirginia201533334490.0724.20
Kyle GuyVirginia201638386340.0933.70
Ty JeromeVirginia201644444730.0724.73
Devon HallVirginia20131231239310.1437.90
London PerrantesVirginia201312412410930.1644.33
Isaiah WilkinsVirginia20141451458740.1332.76
Jarred ReuterVirginia20151581583440.0512.24
Marial ShayokVirginia20141631637020.1024.47
Darius ThompsonTennessee20131911916860.1021.10
Jack SaltVirginia20143533536270.094.41
126.7368291.00260.72



-->
2017-18
RecruitSchoolYearNatl Rank17-18MPG%Value
Mamadi DiakiteVirginia2015333318.000.0933.12
Kyle GuyVirginia2016383832.000.1658.08
Ty JeromeVirginia2016444432.000.1657.12
Jay HuffVirginia2016606014.000.0723.87
DeAndre HunterVirginia2016929218.000.0927.81
Devon HallVirginia201312312332.000.1644.48
Isaiah WilkinsVirginia201414514530.000.1538.40
Marco AnthonyVirginia20172352356.000.034.98
Jack SaltVirginia201435335318.000.094.32
124.78200.001.00292.18


Yeahbuddy.

I think hope that was pretty self-explanatory.

Darion Atkins being unranked kind of fucks some of the numbers up, but I still think it's a decent look at the talent (measured by recruit ranking) by roster dosage (minutes played) for each season.

Another illustrative table.

-->
SeasonRecordNCAATKendall Value
2011-1222-10 (9-7 ACC)Round of 64204.51
2012-1323-12 (11-7 ACC)NIT228.69
2013-1430-7 (16-2 ACC)Sweet 16263.71
2014-1530-4 (16-2 ACC)Round of 32264.75
2015-1629-8 (13-5 ACC)Elite 8274.91
2016-1723-11 (11-7 ACC)Round of 32260.72
2017-18??????292.18



And a... what do you call these things?  A chart?  A graph?



Tony Bennett has been a success so far at Virginia by doing more with less.  Next season, potential depth issues aside, he will be attempting to do more with... more.

Pretty big reasons for optimism, despite the losses of Reuter, Shayok, and Thompson.

GO HOOS!




-->