Notre Dame Pick

HUGE game tomorrow, but unfortunately no time for a proper post today. However, I need to get this pick out.....

Notre Dame is favored by 12.5, with an over/under of 48.5, therefore, Vegas is expecting a 30-18 type of win for the Irish.

I like our defense's chances of making it ugly and keeping it close, but ultimately our offense just doesn't have enough punch right now* to spring the upset on their home field.

My pick: Notre Dame 24, Virginia 13

(My season to date: 4-0, 3-1 ATS, 4-0 O/U)

* Yeah, our offense isn't clicking right now. A few reasons why, in no particular order:

1. Bryce Perkins clearly is not at 100%. He's still a dangerous runner, but the electric "suddenness" just isn't there.
2. The offensive line is banged up. And young. And individual linemen are being forced to rotate around between different roles too much. Add it up, and it's - STILL - a below-average OL. Ugh. I hate it. I just hate it. I hate watching offenses with bad line play. It sounds crazy to say this, but it's STILL Mike London's fault. We have zero senior OL, and only two juniors. That's a harsh indictment of our OL recruiting from five years ago, when London was still the coach.
3. The receivers aren't getting enough separation. I put this on them, and they as a unit had a bad game against ODU. We need all of Reed, Dubois, Jana, Chatman, Kemp, and Kelly to show up in South Bend.
4. Our backs appear to be ho-hum. But I suspect that's a symptom of #2, above, and #5, below.
5. Playcalling hasn't been bad, but also hasn't been anything above the "meh" level. I won't lambast Robert Anae like [too] many Hoofans are wont to do, but this offense is clearly begging for a tempo-based, pistol formation quick passing game. Keep Perkins in the pocket so he can get healthy, protect the OL by getting the ball out quickly and not asking them to do a ton of run blocking, and get the receivers in a better rhythm by feeding them a steady diet of short, easy completions.

Gotta get some of these things figured out, or we return to Charlottesville to play Duke at 4-2 and unranked in three weeks, despite a clear and obvious top-15 defense.