This is what I would call a "pivot" game. It's simple, really:
Beat Duke on Saturday = We solidify our footing and begin to rebound from a really bad three week span.
Lose to Duke on Saturday = Our season begins to spiral out of control.
There's really no in-between here. I hesitate to use this term, but this game against Duke is a MUST WIN.
Vegas installed UVA as a 5-point home favorite, over/under 44. So Vegas began the week expecting something like a 24-20 UVA win. But in the three days since, the line has been bet hard, and now stands at Virginia -3. So a 24-21 Virginia win, then.
I'm giving them the points and I'm hammering the Virginia bet in this game. At 3, 5, 7, 10, fuck it, 14. I think we come out with serious anger and intensity, and look to make a statement on our home field against a team with equal or lesser talent.
My pick: Virginia 38, Duke 14
Betting the Hoos and the OVER.
(My season to date: 5-1, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U)
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