A sprawling, stream-of-consciousness bulleted list for all of your UVA-centered March Madness needs...
- After yesterday's clutch-cargo overtime win over Maryland, we are a lock for the NCAA Tournament, unless - UNLESS - Boston College beats NC State on Thursday and then we lose to the Eagles on Friday. But even then, I think we'd slip in as an 11- or 12-seed, maybe via the play-in on Tuesday/Wednesday night of next week. Not a route we'd like to take.
- Right now, Joe Lunardi lists us as a 9-seed. Nobody likes the idea of the 8/9 game and then a chance to churn into the Kentucky/Syracuse meat grinder. That being said, there will be four 1-seeds, and maybe we'd be placed in the bracket with Kansas or possibly Missouri or Ohio State. Not saying we'd win that kind of 2nd round game, but it's certainly not impossible. With our packline D, offensive pacing, streaky perimeter shooters, and - of course - Mike Scott, I think we could spring the upset.
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How did this king douche land my dream job? |
- Why I'd prefer a 10-seed: Could we win a 1st round game against a 7-seed team like Memphis, New Mexico, Creighton, or San Diego State? Uh... hell yes. Could we then the 2nd round upset over a 2-seed like Michigan State (now without Branden Dawson), Missouri, or Marquette? Totally possible.
- Or even an 11-seed: 1st round upset over Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Murray State, or Gonzaga? Yes. 2nd round upset over Baylor or Georgetown? Don't have to squint too hard to see that.
- Therefore, it would not be the end of the world to lose to NC State on Friday and see our seed line drop. Entering the NCAAs as a lower-seeded, upset-minded grinder who has been playing tournament-style slow-it-down basketball all season feels really sexy, doesn't it?
- Speaking of, here's an excellent piece from SI's Seth Davis -- The inside scoop on the nation's top teams. He basically asked for coaches to give their anonymous scouting reports on the teams headed toward the Big Dance, with a focus on the flaws in each team, and he took all the quotes and smashed them into an amalgam that summarized each team. Here's the review he forged for Virginia basketball, which I feel nails our team exactly:
- This team is just so limited offensively. Everything is predicated on tempo. The Cavaliers' best opportunity to score is an easy basket by Jontel Evans. He's so fast and strong, it's like a tailback going downhill. Their motion offense is good, but for 20 seconds they're not really attacking, they're just moving you around. And they are terrible against extended pressure because they don't attack it to score. I think they're running on fumes a bit. The fact that they don't have Assane Sene right now hurts. It doesn't overly affect their offense, but it does defensively. He makes the big-to-big doubles hard because he can throw out of them. You have to take away Mike Scott's perimeter shot. I'd rather him try to go inside because you can double team him there. Sammy Zeglinski is a great shooter, but he can also be a no-show occasionally. They're undersized in the backcourt, so teams like to post up their guards. The good news is they play tournament basketball all year, those grinder possession games.
- Hell yeah, baby. I honestly will just feel lucky and grateful to make it into the Tournament this season, given the two Christmas attrites, Sene's injury, Zeglinski's horrific slump, Joey Hoops' broken hand, Brog's foot injury, and the prison rapes we've received at the rough hands of the ACC refs. I think the expression is "playing with house money." In any case, it's fun to have zero expectations, but knowing that the team is fully capable of an extended run thanks to our grinding, tournament style play. It's honestly a feeling I have never experienced as a Virginia basketball fan. During my cognizant years, we've either been a high seed bracing against embarrassing upset, or a flawed team with poor coaching that I knew would be extremely lucky just to win one game. This year feels like a total role reversal. Not just happy to be there, but happy to be there and aware of our potential for being an extremely tough out for the vogue teams with the gaudy seeding.
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Nobody wants to see this monster waiting for them in the tourney. |
- Crystal balling it... This season is going to wrap up with a loss to NC State on Friday, a 10-seed in the NCAA Tournament, a fun nail-biting upset over a 7-seed, then a close hard-fought loss to a 2-seed. Virginia basketball will have earned the respect it deserves, and Tony Bennett will have cemented his ascension to amongst the best coaches in the ACC, and the nation will take notice.
- Which is potentially unfortunate. Why? Rumor has it UCLA - yes, that UCLA, the college basketball blueblood - is eyeballing Bennett as its next coach, if/when Ben Howland gets shitcanned for all of this monkey business going on in LA. But don't be too scared. Remember that Tony turned down the Indiana job the year before he decided to come to UVA. I think this school, this program, this situation, and this town is where he wants to be. But still, a little nerve-wracking to think the poachers might already be on the prowl.
- But that doesn't mean Tony Bennett is beyond reproach. I think there are three things Tony Bennett must improve upon as his career progresses here at Virginia:
- 1) Developing and playing depth. Bennett wants to have nine players in the rotation -- five "smalls" and four "bigs." But he only actually wants to play seven of those nine -- four smalls and three bigs. With the demands he puts on the players on the defensive end, I think we actually need to go nine or even ten deep. I think we'd see better play down the stretch in close games, including better clutch free throw shooting, if the guys had fresher legs. Going deep isn't an option right now, but when it is an option I hope he starts to take advantage of it.
- 2) Timeouts. As in, calling them. Especially late in games, when our guys are gassed and need a break. Taking two or three timeouts unused to the end of the game doesn't make much sense, right?
- 3) Getting T'ed up. I want my basketball coach to argue to the point of a T when John Henson flops like he did and the 4th foul is called on our superstar. Throw the coat, get mad, get the T, Tony. It fires up the team and the fans, and makes the refs think twice before screwing us over in the future.
- BONUS) Just in general, I like to see an expansion of the running game and the mentality of attacking the press to score easy points. I think we're so careful about being careful, that it cripples the offensive flow and the fast break. Teams won't press us if we break it and dunk on them enough times.
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Attaboy, Tony! Sling that bitch! |
- What a fun season this has been. Ups, downs, excitement, disappointment, drama. It's just really awesome to feel like we're a relevant program again, that we are gathering national respect, and that an identity for Virginia Basketball is being born right in front of us. In February and March, I don't feel alive unless I'm chewing my fingernails and kicking ottomans, so God bless you Tony Bennett and Mike Scott.
Love the potential San Diego state matchup. One last shot as sticking in to the pussyfooted James Johnson.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the word on Sene? Any chance he could be back by the NCAAs?
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, both Sene and Brogdon are out for the rest of the season. We're down to seven scholarship players after starting the season with 11. Tony Bennett has worked a minor miracle in taking this team to the Big Dance.
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