Slicing the 200 Minute Pie, 2011-12

I did it a year ago, so let's just consider it an annual rite of Spring.

Like every year around this time, I'm stuck on basketball.

Virginia Baseball certainly has my full attention, but when my mind wanders... like during the morning shower, when I'm driving home from work, cooking dinner, daydreaming (and nightdreaming), et cetera... when my mind wanders it's currently wandering to basketball.

The 2011-12 season is an important one for Tony Bennett.  With Mike Scott back and another good recruiting class stacked on top of the stellar 2010 group (Joe Harris, KT Harrell, et al), I think it's time for us to allow our expectations to rise to the point of NCAA Tournament contention.

But how will the playing time shake out?  Here's my guess at how the 200 total minutes per game will be distributed next year. (2010-11 minutes per game average in parentheses.)

Mike Scott (33.7 mpg 2010-11) -- 32 min./game
Joe Harris (29.4) -- 28
Sammy Zeglinski (25.6) -- 27
Assane Sene (22.5) -- 22
KT Harrell (22.2) -- 20
Malcolm Brogdon (Fr.) -- 20
James Johnson (RS Fr.) -- 18
Jontel Evans (27.3) -- 13
Paul Jesperson (Fr.) -- 12
Akil Mitchell (15.1) -- 8
Will Regan (6.6) -- 0
Darion Atkins (Fr.) -- redshirt


Thoughts generated by this exercise:

• Fir the first time I can remember, there is a clear 10-man rotation, with starters and true backups.  At the point, it's Zeglinski/Evans, at the 2 it's Harrell/Brogdon, at the 3 it's Harris/Jesperson, at power forward it's Scott/Mitchell, and at center it's Sene/Johnson.  I'm sure it won't work out to be exactly that, but it's clear that depth will be a strength of the team.
• Sammy Zeglinski can -- and should -- be the starting point guard as a 5th year senior.  My guess is that he'll likely approach the 30 minutes he averaged down the stretch this season.  As noted above, that increase in minutes for Sammy comes at the direct expense to Jontel Evans.  Much like the quarterback position in football, I think our so-so point guard play has the chance to undermine what should shape up to be a very good season.  Sammy really needs to step up in his last season... especially at the free throw stripe late in games.
• Watching the Sene/Johnson battle should be interesting.  Sene is the "win now" option, while the future of the program can be positively impacted by significant on-court experience gained by James Johnson.  I think the player who could ultimately suffer from this situation is Akil Mitchell, who might cede minutes to Johnson at the 4.
• I'm hoping KT Harrell's lackluster play in conference games was simply due to a bit of a rookie slump... but I'm perfectly happy in having Harrell insurance in the form of Malcolm Brogdon.
• Brogdon might also be able to steal some minutes at point guard.  Might not be a bad option if Zeglinski doesn't pull it together.  (I'm not sold on Jontel Evans as anything more than a situational role player at this point.)  A Brogdon/Harrell/Harris backcourt could be particularly explosive.
• No more Joe Harris moonlighting at the 4.  This past season's thin spot -- the frontcourt -- will be next season's deep spot.  A healthy Mike Scott will see 30+ minutes on the floor, Sene has proved himself worthy of extended time, the staff has to find time for James Johnson, Akil Mitchell shouldn't be kept in the cold... and don't forget Will Regan, who should be improved.  And what about Darion Atkins?  I think a redshirt should be in order for the talented young big.
• I'm thinking about Paul Jesperson like I was thinking about Joe Harris at this time last year.  "I think Joe Harris will play an important role on next year's team: sniper."  Harris was a sniper, but he was also so much more.  I hope I'm just as wrong about Jesperson, but for now I'm only expecting him to give Harris an occasional rest during games.
• I'm excited about 2011-12, but a little nervous about 2012-13.  Mike Scott, Sammy Zeglinski, and Assane Sene graduate.  Will James Johnson, Jontel Evans (or a 2011 transfer or 2012 recruit), and freshman Mike Tobey be ready to step into the starting lineup?  I guess Akil Mitchell could start at the 4 with Johnson at the 5...  The staff is recruiting point guards and a power forwards for the remaining scholarships in the 2012 class.  I can see the puzzle coming together a little bit now.
• This team still needs players who can: a) take the ball to the basket, and/or b) get their own shot.  Evans has part 'a' of that equation, but to this point has been a horrible finisher.  Harrell has the potential to be able to do both, but he needs to develop that part of his game.  By all accounts, Brogdon can do these things.  But we still need more.  Watching the 2011 NCAA Tournament, I saw the teams that were able to consistently penetrate and score having the most success.  UConn with Kemba Walker.  Kentucky with Brandon Knight.  Butler with Shelvin Mack.  Et cetera.  We need one of those guys if we want to win games in the postseason.  We need one of those guys if we want shooters like Joe Harris and Paul Jesperson and athletic igs like James Johnson and Akil Mitchell to realize their full potential.

No matter what, next year should be fun. I can't wait to see Malcolm Brogdon and James Johnson in action, and I can't wait to see what Mike Scott can do as a 5th year senior.

GO HOOS!