I'm stuck on basketball.
Perhaps it's due to the most exciting NCAA Tournament in years, or the interesting post-mortems on the 2009-10 Virginia Basketball season, but whatever the reason I'm stuck on basketball.
Despite what has been a "big news" type of spring football practice period, I'm still stuck on basketball.
I think the main reasons are four:
1) The way the team played to end the year, without Landesberg. In the Maryland, BC, and Duke games I saw a tough-minded, hard-nosed team. A Tony Bennett team.
2) Butler. They are the next great model for what a smart, tough, fundamentals-based team can accomplish. I see them succeed and I see the same opportunity for Virginia to succeed under coach Bennett.
3) A 96-team NCAA Tournament. Most oppose the expansion. I do not. I guess I'm not sophisticated enough to understand how more of a good thing isn't just that -- more of a good thing. You can't tell me that this year's Ole Miss, Rhode Island, Illinois, Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, and Dayton teams weren't better than some of the scrubs that made the tourney. I'm greedy, I want more basketball, and I'm happy about tournament expansion. (Pssssst... a nearly 50% increase in the tourney field increases Virginia's chances of making the tournament in any given year by 50%. Isn't that a good thing, Hoo fans?)
4) The six incoming recruits. That's a HUGE incoming class, by any standard. How will they mesh with the seven returning players to form next year's team?
On the topic of #4... Here's my guess at how the 200 minutes per game will be distributed next year. (2009-10 minutes per game average in parentheses.)
Mike Scott (27.4) -- 30 minutes per game in 2010-11
Sam Zeglinski (29.0) -- 25
Mustapha Farrakhan (21.0) -- 20
Jeff Jones (18.3) -- 20
K.T. Harrell (Fr.) -- 18
James Johnson (Fr.) -- 15
Jontel Evans (16.5) -- 15
Assane Sene (12.6) -- 13
Billy Baron (Fr.) -- 12
Joe Harris (Fr.) -- 12
Will Regan (Fr.) -- 10
Will Sherrill (15.4) -- 10
Akil Mitchell (Fr.) -- redshirt
Thoughts generated by this exercise:
-- It probably won't be this way at the beginning of the season, but the five players I expect to see starting the majority of the games are Evans / Zeglinski / Harrell / Scott / Sene.
-- I think Will Sherrill will cede minutes to Will Regan. The two are very similar players, except Regan is more athletic and has more upside.
-- James Johnson needs to be able to assert himself in the low post early and often.
-- Farrakhan and Jones coming off of the bench together could be a wonderful way to push the tempo and manufacture scoring bursts.
-- Jontel Evans vs. Billy Baron will be a very interesting battle. One of those two guys will run the point... but I fully expect to see Sammy slide into that role in crunch time until/unless Evans develops a somewhat reliable shooting stroke.
-- There will be a lot of pressure on K.T. Harrell to assume a big chunk of Sylven Landesberg's vacated scoring. It will be interesting to see how the youngster responds.
-- I think Joe Harris will play an important role on next year's team: sniper.
-- I still have high hopes for Assane Sene. He's never going to be a scoring threat, but if he can "get it" as a pack line defender, our overall team defense could be really tough. Having a shot blocker on the floor can really allow the pack line to flourish.
-- I don't actually expect to see a 12-man rotation next season. Coach Bennett will find an 8- or 9-man rotation that works, and then will stick with that. Of the 12 players I gave minutes to above, the three most likely to be excluded from the rotation are Will Regan, Will Sherrill, and Assane Sene.
-- A three-guard look is almost a certainty. But with the makeup of this roster, we could be looking at some heavy doses of a Marquette-esque four guard look. Can Mike Scott handle the pivot in such a system? I have my doubts.
No matter what, next year should be fun. I love watching freshman receive their baptism by fire in the ACC, and we'll be seeing that big time next season.
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