#$@% It Dude, Let's Go Bowling

You're out of your element.

Look, I'm not trying to jinx anything.  In fact, I already said it this week in the Wahooze Pix post:

It's a trap game.  It's NC State all over again.  The guys will be feeling pressure to get the win and get bowl eligible.  We haven't won a game in November since shutting down the Orange Bowl in 2007.  I'm beyond nervous about this game.

It's true.  It's all true.  I am nervous about this game.  But you can't deny one simple fact --- Maryland: 118th nationally against the rush, Virginia: 37th nationally in rushing offense.  This game sets up as a simple, line up and knock 'em back type of contest, and I think we have a very good chance to go up to College Park and win this game tomorrow.  No frills, no fuss, no muss, just running the ball, churning the clock, scoring points, keeping the defense fresh and rested, and coming away with the win.


A win that will be our first in the month of November since 2007.


A win that will put us in our first bowl game since 2007.


Speaking of which, we've been away so long, I thought it might be good to take a quick look at the ACC's bowl tie-ins, the current standings, and do a quick projection of where UVA fits into the picture.


CURRENT ACC STANDINGS / PROJECTED BOWL PECKING ORDER
1) Clemson, 8-1 (5-1 ACC) -- projected record: 11-2 (8-1)
2) Virginia Tech, 8-1 (4-1) -- projected record: 11-2 (7-2)
3) Florida State, 6-3 (4-2) -- projected record: 9-3 (6-2)
4) Georgia Tech, 7-2 (4-2) -- projected record: 8-4 (5-3)
5) Wake Forest, 5-3 (4-2) -- projected record: 7-5 (5-3)
6) North Carolina, 6-3 (2-3) -- projected record: 8-4 (4-4)
7) Miami, 4-4 (2-3) -- projected record: 7-5 (4-4)
8) Virginia, 5-3 (2-2) -- projected record: 7-5 (4-4)
9) NC State, 4-4 (1-3) -- projected record: 6-6 (3-5)
-------------------- mendoza line --------------------
Duke, 3-5 (1-3) -- projected record: 3-9 (1-7)
Boston College, 2-7 (1-5) -- projected record: 2-10 (1-7)
Maryland, 2-6 (1-4) -- projected record: 2-10 (1-7)


Note: Bowl selection can't leapfrog the overall conference standings (ACC win/loss), so the bowls with tie-ins are pulling against Wake, to be certain -- the Deacs travel horribly for bowl games.  That's why they are so far down my list, above.  Also, with games against UNC, @BC, Clemson, and Maryland, NC State is up against it to get to six wins.  I think they'll take the BC and Maryland games and get there at 6-6, which is why I put them above the mendoza line.




ACC BOWL AFFILIATIONS AND WAHOOZE BOWL PROJECTIONS


ACC Champ: Orange Bowl in Miami on Jan. 4:
Clemson vs. Cincinnati


ACC Runner-Up: Chik-fil-A ("Peach") Bowl in Atlanta on Dec. 31:
Virginia Tech vs. Georgia


ACC 3rd Pick: Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando on Dec. 29:
Florida State vs. West Virginia


ACC 4th Pick: Sun Bowl in El Paso on Dec. 31:
Georgia Tech vs. Washington


ACC 5th Pick: Belk ("Tire") Bowl in Charlotte on Dec. 27:
Wake Forest vs. Rutgers


ACC 6th Pick: Music City Bowl in Nashville on Dec. 30:
North Carolina vs. Mississippi State


ACC 7th Pick: Independence Bowl in Shreveport on Dec. 26:
Miami vs. Wyoming


ACC 8th Pick: Military Bowl in DC on Dec. 28:
Virginia vs. SMU*
* This slot goes to Navy if the Midshipmen are bowl-eligible.  They currently stand at 2-6 with Troy, @SMU, @San Jose State, and Army left to play, so it is entirely possible that they run to table and rally to 6-6.  That said, Navy has really struggled this season, so I'm sure there's at least one more loss on their schedule, so I give SMU the nod as an at-large.


ACC 9th Pick*: Kraft Fight Hunger ("Nut") Bowl in San Francisco on Dec. 31:
NC State vs. Utah
* Army gets this spot if bowl-eligible.  They stand at 3-5 with @Air Force, Rutgers, @Temple, and Navy left to play.  I see two losses on that slate, so the ACC gets a 9th bowl bid.




What does it all mean?  If we win tomorrow, we're bowl-eligible and going to a bowl game.  If we add a win against Duke, I think we're moving up from San Fran, DC, or Shreveport to maybe Nashville.  If we somehow go 3-1 down the stretch and finish 8-4, then Charlotte or maybe El Paso is on the table.

Personally?  I want the Military Bowl.  We'd draw a big local crowd, the bowl game would be centered right in our second most important recruiting territory, and it would be a winnable game against a beatable opponent.  Navy might make it in, but probably not.  That leaves bowl-eligible scraps from other conferences.  I cited SMU.  You can also consider teams like Iowa State, South Florida, Purdue, Marshall, UCF, Toledo, Temple, Air Force, and FIU to be in the hunt for this bowl berth.  In other words, this could draw a very interesting opponent for us.

Going to the Nut Bowl - sorry, the Macaroni and Cheese Bowl -would suck, as we'd not travel well, and we'd draw the Pac-12's 6th team (Utah, UCLA, or maybe Cal) that would have a much bigger fanbase in attendance.

The Independence Bowl is great, and the Mountain West's 3rd team (Wyoming or maybe San Diego State or Air Force) is quite beatable.  

The Music City Bowl is my white whale, but I'm afraid we get pounded by the SEC's 7th team.  Mississippi State or Florida?  That sound good to you?  Playing against Vanderbilt in Nashville would also suck, though I'd love to see us play against the Commodores at some point... just not in a bowl game on their home turf.

I think the Belk Bowl is out of our reach.  Clemson, FSU, and the two Techs have the top four spots on lock, I think.  That leaves us to tangle with the likes of the Tarheels, Demon Deacons, and Hurricanes for that bid.  I think we'd come out on the losing end of that selection.




The point is, this is FUN.  This is awesome to think about.


I'm sure I jinxed us tomorrow, but luckily I don't believe in that crap.  If we're good enough, we'll win.  And if we win, we're going to a bowl game.


Welcome back, Hoos.  It's great to have November be fun again.