So the Pac-12 is staying at 12, the Big XII is saved as Oklahoma and Texas work to reconcile their differences, the Big East is working to fill the Syracuse and Pitt-sized holes the ACC chomped out of it, and the SEC is content with an odd number of teams -- unlucky 13? The talking heads are telling us full-scale REALIGNMAGEDDON is averted... again. Do you believe them? Even for a second?
I sure as hell don't.
Here's how I read between the lines...
- The Pac-12 is staying at 12 ONLY because it sensed that Texas would ultimately reject them over the revenue sharing of the Longhorn Network (LHN). That, and it was a hard sell to the current Pac-12 schools to stomach Texas Tech and Oklahoma State coming in as the ugly little brothers to Texas and Oklahoma.
- The Big XII is staying together only due to a lack of better options for the member institutions. Adding BYU is not the bandaid that will save the conference and provide long-term stability. The Big XII is like the mouse just dropped in the snake tank. Still alive, but only because the python isn't hungry... at the moment. But you're surviving only at the whim of the Pac-12, B1G, and SEC. When those conferences get hungry -- and they will -- the Big XII will be eaten. The reason the Big XII is so weak is because it's now riddled with distrust. Mizzou wanted to jump to the B1G last year, there is no even revenue sharing, and none of the schools (except for maybe Texas Tech) trust Texas, which happens to be the conference's biggest brand and general lynchpin. I'm telling you, it's only a matter of time before this conference is devoured. It's a Jenga tower with too many missing blocks. And as a sidenote, I truly feel for the Kansas, K-State, Baylor, and Iowa State fans. They have no protection and no apparent recourse. When the conference crumbles, these four schools will be buried in the rubble.
- ECU, Navy, Air Force, Villanova (moving up to the FBS level), and maybe Temple. These are the white knights that will save the Big East. Huh? If/when the ACC comes calling a third time, UConn and/or Rutgers will be ready to jump. What kind of football conference do you have with West Virginia, USF, Cincinnati, Louisville (who might prefer to go independent), TCU (who might decide to abort their move to the Big East altogether), ECU, Air Force, Navy, Villanova, and Temple? I'll tell you: It's a football conference that will lose its automatic qualifier status with the BCS. And thus, it is a conference equal in stature with the MAC, the Sun Belt, Conference USA, the WAC, and the Mountain West. There's no saving the Big East. It's like the girl in Jaws, still swimming along, missing a leg, bleeding to death, but still frantically swimming because panic has set in and her body has gone into shock, and there's nothing left to do but swim. Adding these middling football schools is shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. And good luck selling the basketball-only schools (Georgetown, St. John's, Seton Hall, etc.) on the hoops power of East Carolina and the Naval Academy. Their best option might be to marry themselves with the leftovers from the Big XII. How about a nation-spanning superconference comprised of this mish-mash of Big East remnants and the Big XII unwanted quartet of KU, KSU, ISU, and Baylor? Odd... but yet oddly fascinating, too.
- Speaking of odd, 13 is an odd number. How do you structure divisions, set up schedules, and conduct a conference with an uneven number of teams? I guess the Big Ten showed us how to do it with 11 teams for all those years, but I have a strong feeling that the SEC is not content to stay with 13 teams. There will be a 14th member of college football's semi-pro league, and that member will be added sooner than later. The smart money is probably on Mizzou. We know it won't be West Virginia, who was already humiliated with a public rejection. We also know it won't be Virginia Tech, Florida State, or any other ACC school after our conference circled the wagons by increasing the buyout to astronomical levels and adding Syracuse and Pitt. The hush-hush #1 target appears to be Oklahoma, to my untrained though experienced and well-read eyes.
- And what about the ACC? Are we set at 14? Is the conference done expanding? The official word is... maybe. The unofficial feeling is... of course not. It's all about 16, but at this point it's a waiting game for Notre Dame and to a lesser extent the Big XII and Texas.
I won't be shocked if things settle down a little bit right now. Maybe for a year or so. BYU will go to the Big XII as that conference "saves" itself again, just like last year. Some combination of ECU, Navy, AFA, 'Nova, and Temple will go to the Big East. TCU will either stick with the Big East or get cold feet... or jump over to the Big XII. And that's it.
Until next year.
So enjoy whatever stability exists right now. Follow along as Texas A&M, Syracuse, and Pitt packs their bags. Watch closely as the awkward courtship between the SEC and Missouri plays out. Peek through the glass as the Big XII and Big East rummage through the scraps. And size up the "free agent" schools, and ponder the next move the ACC will make -- now strangely operating from a position of strength instead of weakness and fear.
If you care what I think -- and obviously you do being that you've read this far -- here's my list of targets for the ACC's expansion to a complete set of 16 schools, listed in my perceived order of preference:
1) Notre Dame
2) Penn State (Believe it's possible -- the money is sweet in the B1G, but it's so sweet due in no small part to Penn State. If the Nits join forces with Notre Dame in the ACC, the money could be sweeter. And PSU has always considered itself an Eastern school with an Eastern audience and Eastern rivalries. The Midwest is a bad fit and a dying economy.)
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| Boom. |
3) Texas
4) UConn
5) Rutgers
6) Louisville
7) Villanova
8) Navy
The present is a gift, and right now the ACC has to decide how to divvy up 14 teams into two divisions for football. My sense is that we'll keep the Atlantic and Coastal divisions intact, and just add Syracuse and Pitt into those divisions and then re-arrange the yearly crossover "rivalries." My best guess on the new-look layout:
Atlantic
Boston College
Clemson
Florida State
Maryland
NC State
Pittsburgh
Wake Forest
Coastal
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami
North Carolina
Syracuse
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Crossover Rivalries
FSU-Miami
Wake-Duke
NCSU-UNC
UMD-UVA
Clemson-GT
BC-Syracuse
Pitt-VT
Expand the ACC schedule from eight games to nine, and keep the two rotating matchups intact. *POOF* Done.
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| I add this to the end of this post just because I found it and think it's awesome. |
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