Competence Without Confidence

(This is the UNC game post mortem, I'll have the Wahooze update on Realignmageddon sometime soon...)

A few stream-of-consciousness thoughts after a good 36 hours to digest the game:

After last year's 44-10 drubbing in Scott Stadium, I wasn't sure we'd be able to hang with the superiorly talented Tarholes.  We hung... sort of.  I saw a UVA team with the ability to compete with that Carolina team, I saw a team with the raw tools to scratch out a win in that game.  What I didn't see was a total team belief, from top to bottom, that Virginia would win the game.  Competence without confidence.  But more games like these first three, and that confidence will come.  Our team is pretty good, and is going to win some more games this year.

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I agree with the Roanoke Times' Aaron McFarling -- Mike Rocco has been undersold to us.  I'm not sure about the Diet Mountain Lion analogy (read the article), but I think Rock looks pretty good.  He's made some mistakes, sure.  But he has also moved the team up and down the field, he's made some pressure throws right on the money, and he's won me over with a cagey sort of "coach's son" guile and moxie.  I see Dan Ellis with Matt Schaub upside.

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There is a lot of message board vitriol about the David Watford series that cultivated in the terribly overthrown pass to a wide open receiver on 4th down in Carolina territory.  No doubt, that was a turning point in the game.  But don't lambast Mike London for leaving Watford in the game to attempt that pass.  Nothing ruins trust between a young player and his coaches faster than being sold on a bill of goods on how you'll be developed and how you'll be deployed into the game as a player, and then having that expectation not met.  Especially when it comes to playing time.  Watford was promised that series, it was HIS series.  To make the QB switch for that 4th down play would have done more harm than good, if you're a person who believes the relationship between a head coach and his [potential] starting quarterback is an important one.  Further, it wasn't just about London and Watford, it was about London and all of the players he's recruiting by offering playing time.  London trusted Watford, and he made good on his word.  That's more important than the one play in the game.

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Notes from the box score:

• I'm very proud of our 178 rushing yards and 5 yards per carry in this game.  Carolina held Rutgers to TWO (count 'em -- 1, 2) rushing yards a week ago, and was #3 in the nation against the run.
• Don't kill Rocco for those two INTs.  One was on a tipped pass, and both were in desperation time.  Kid played a very controlled, careful game, and avoided making the backbreaking mistakes during the meat of the contest.
• Our 468 yards of total offense is cause for much optimism.  That UNC defense is loaded with talent, and we moved the ball on them very well.
• 13.8 yards per kickoff return.  That MUST improve.
• KP had 14 carries for 98 yards, Perry Jones 8 for 39, and Clifton Richardson 7 for 27.  I think it's clear who our workhorse back is going to be this season.  But all three guys should see plenty of carries moving forward.
• Kris Burd finally had a breakout game playing with Rocco.  I think his 7 reception, 110 yard day is foreshadowing a very productive next nine (ten?) games.
• I was disappointed in Matt Snyder.  His stat line (5 for 72) looks solid, but he dropped some passes that hit him in the hands.  Important passes that hit him in the hands.
• That screen to Max Milien was a thing of beauty.  Mike Rocco sold it to perfection.  And Milien did his part in making the catch cleanly and rumbling down the sideline.  Great play, and a great call from Lazor.

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I think our defense still has a ways to go.  Carolina killed us with misdirection plays, screens, et al.  And then they were able to run the ball down our throats in the second half.  We have to improve on D if we want to be able to compete in the ACC.

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It was another penalty-riddled afternoon.  Gotta clean that up.

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This wasn't a moral victory.  It's Carolina, we beat them all the time.  It's not like this was David v. Goliath or anything.  But there is a bit of a gulf in talent between these two teams right now, essentially Al Groh's late recruits v. Butch Davis' heyday recruits, and I think we played fairly well given the hand we were dealt for this game (read: Carolina Refs).  This loss didn't dent my optimism for six wins and a bowl game, that's for sure.  If anything, it made me raise my expectations a half-notch.  Southern Miss, Idaho, Georgia Tech, NC State, Maryland, Duke --- these are all winnable games for us this season.  Will we win four of those six and get into a bowl game?  That's the 64 million dollar question.