A media source NOT picking Michigan State to go to the Final Four!
Pete Thamel, SI.com (in their Tournament Preview piece):
It's hard to keep doubting Virginia. When the Cavaliers won the ACC, people pointed to the unbalanced schedule and their struggles early in the season. But after elbowing its way through the ACC tournament this weekend, UVa. looks every bit the part of a No. 1 seed.
The myth of the Cavaliers is that they are a rugged defensive team that struggles on offense. The reality is that they are the country's No. 28 offensive team on KenPom.com when adjusted for tempo. Redshirt sophomore wing Malcolm Brogdon (12.3 pgg) and senior sniper Joe Harris (11.6 ppg) lead a balanced attack. The perpetual motion of Virginia's offense, filled with a variety of screens, also wears out teams. And its offensive sets often end with clean looks toward the end of the shot clock, when teams get caught napping.
The low-scoring style may offer temptation to pick against the Cavaliers, as might their early loss to Green Bay and an 87-52 shellacking at Tennessee. However, Virginia's offense found itself during the ACC regular season and postseason, and only Florida and Wichita State have been more impressive since New Year's.
A healthy Michigan State has always loomed this season as a Final Four no-brainer, but the Cavaliers can beat the Spartans at their own sharp-elbowed game. Virginia will make it to Dallas.
March 17, 2014
Thoughts on Virginia's Draw
In 6:30 AM, stream-of-consciousness style. It's a list, and it's numbered, but the order is inconsequential.
1) I'm proud to get a 1-seed. Really proud. And excited. It's an honor! And a statement that we've "arrived" as a program.
2) Saw a graphic on ESPN that other than Duke and UNC, we have earned the most 1-seeds in ACC history (as members of the ACC). We have... four, I think? I think this is the fourth. Maryland had one. Wake had one. And that's it. So that's pretty cool.
3) Holy shit, the NCAA Tournament page on Wiki is pretty damn awesome.
4) HERE's a nice bracket you can print at home (read: work) and use for tracking the tournament (read: gambling). Don't feel guilty picking Michigan State to beat UVA in the Sweet Sixteen. It's never a good idea to bet on the Hoos.
5) Okay, let's talk about Michigan State. None of the talking heads seem to think we have a chance against them. In fact, I'd say the pulse of discourse has the Spartans positioned as maybe the 3rd or 4th most popular team to win it all. Florida is #1, red-hot Louisville is up there somewhere, and Arizona.
6) Vegas has Florida as the clear favorite, laying 4-1 odds. Michigan State is #2, at 9-2. Here's the list:
1 Florida 4-1
2 Michigan State 9-2
3 Arizona 6-1
4 Kansas 8-1
~~~ 5-way tie at 5th ~~~
Wichita State 15-1
Virginia 15-1
Duke 15-1
Syracuse 15-1
Louisville 15-1
10 Wisconsin 20-1
11 Michigan 25-1
11 Villanova 25-1
11 Creighton 25-1
14 Iowa State 35-1
14 UCLA 35-1
16 Kentucky 40-1 (pretty good for an 8-seed)
17 North Carolina 50-1
We'll go ahead and stop there.
7) So yeah, Michigan State looms as a very tough potential opponent in the Sweet Sixteen.
8) To Get to the Sweet Sixteen, we have to win two games this coming weekend. The first, against Coastal Carolina, looks like a favorable matchup for the Hoos. The Chanticleers average more turnovers (14) than assists (11) per game, they shoot a pedestrian 33% from deep, and their bigs run about 6-6 / 6-7 (we'll have a huge size advantage). They beat nobody of note, and got destroyed by Clemson, 69-40. I'd equate them to a slightly-better Radford or Liberty, teams we beat by 20+ points BEFORE the "Tennessee Turnaround."
9) Once we get past Coastal Carolina, I'm sure Memphis will await. They face George Washington in the 1st round, and I'm certain they'll crush the Coloniels.
10) Memphis is one of the teams I was really hoping we'd be able to avoid in the Big Dance. Like I said last week...
Those guards are numerous, and all good as shit, and all thrive on the dribble-drive. We thought Seth Allen and Dez Wells were rough? Joe Jackson, Michael Dixon, Geron Johnson, and Chris Crawford are otherworldly as slasher-style scorers. This might be Virginia's nightmare matchup in the entire Tournament field...
11) So yeah, I think we got a tough draw. "Sweet Sixteen or bust" requires a win over the Tigers, so we better nut up for them. The performances in the ACC Tournament were encouraging... to say the least. ACC regular season and tournament champions should have no trouble with the 4th place team from the American Athletic conference. However, I equate Memphis in quality to Pitt, and as we know, those were two tough wins for us to earn. Plus, Memphis poses very specific matchup problems for us.
12) Other teams' draws that I'm jealous of: Florida, Kansas, and Duke.
13) Other teams' draws that I do not envy: Arizona (Oklahoma St. in the 2nd round), Wichita State (Kentucky in the 2nd round, L'Ville in the S16), Villanova (UConn, then Iowa State, then us or Michigan State).
14) Looking at the big picture, I'd say we got a middle-of-the-road draw. Michigan State is a big boulder, but we got arguably the softest 8/9 matchup any 1-seed will face in the 2nd round.
15) You might be tempted to think "we're the 1-seed, we should be able to flex nuts all the way to the Final Four," but make absolutely no mistake --- if/when we face Michigan State in the Sweet Sixteen, we will be the underdog.
16) If we somehow get past the Spartans, I fully expect to see Iowa State in the Elite Eight. It's another terrible matchup for us. So if we do go on the miracle run to the Final Four, it truly will be a miracle.
17) I'm so freaking excited right now. What an awesome season, and an awesome bracket to finish it off!
18) We need Joe to go en fuego in this Tournament. We need Brog to keep being Brog. We need Akil to keep being Akil. We need Anthony Gill to continue his storm surge. We need London Perrantes to keep hunting his own shot. We need Mike Tobey to find his offense and his sense of aggression. We need Justin Anderson to make a bunch of Justin plays. We've got the kind of team that can win its regional and advance to the Final Four... now we just need to get it done.
19) GO HOOS!
1) I'm proud to get a 1-seed. Really proud. And excited. It's an honor! And a statement that we've "arrived" as a program.
2) Saw a graphic on ESPN that other than Duke and UNC, we have earned the most 1-seeds in ACC history (as members of the ACC). We have... four, I think? I think this is the fourth. Maryland had one. Wake had one. And that's it. So that's pretty cool.
3) Holy shit, the NCAA Tournament page on Wiki is pretty damn awesome.
4) HERE's a nice bracket you can print at home (read: work) and use for tracking the tournament (read: gambling). Don't feel guilty picking Michigan State to beat UVA in the Sweet Sixteen. It's never a good idea to bet on the Hoos.
5) Okay, let's talk about Michigan State. None of the talking heads seem to think we have a chance against them. In fact, I'd say the pulse of discourse has the Spartans positioned as maybe the 3rd or 4th most popular team to win it all. Florida is #1, red-hot Louisville is up there somewhere, and Arizona.
6) Vegas has Florida as the clear favorite, laying 4-1 odds. Michigan State is #2, at 9-2. Here's the list:
1 Florida 4-1
2 Michigan State 9-2
3 Arizona 6-1
4 Kansas 8-1
~~~ 5-way tie at 5th ~~~
Wichita State 15-1
Virginia 15-1
Duke 15-1
Syracuse 15-1
Louisville 15-1
10 Wisconsin 20-1
11 Michigan 25-1
11 Villanova 25-1
11 Creighton 25-1
14 Iowa State 35-1
14 UCLA 35-1
16 Kentucky 40-1 (pretty good for an 8-seed)
17 North Carolina 50-1
We'll go ahead and stop there.
7) So yeah, Michigan State looms as a very tough potential opponent in the Sweet Sixteen.
8) To Get to the Sweet Sixteen, we have to win two games this coming weekend. The first, against Coastal Carolina, looks like a favorable matchup for the Hoos. The Chanticleers average more turnovers (14) than assists (11) per game, they shoot a pedestrian 33% from deep, and their bigs run about 6-6 / 6-7 (we'll have a huge size advantage). They beat nobody of note, and got destroyed by Clemson, 69-40. I'd equate them to a slightly-better Radford or Liberty, teams we beat by 20+ points BEFORE the "Tennessee Turnaround."
9) Once we get past Coastal Carolina, I'm sure Memphis will await. They face George Washington in the 1st round, and I'm certain they'll crush the Coloniels.
10) Memphis is one of the teams I was really hoping we'd be able to avoid in the Big Dance. Like I said last week...
Those guards are numerous, and all good as shit, and all thrive on the dribble-drive. We thought Seth Allen and Dez Wells were rough? Joe Jackson, Michael Dixon, Geron Johnson, and Chris Crawford are otherworldly as slasher-style scorers. This might be Virginia's nightmare matchup in the entire Tournament field...
11) So yeah, I think we got a tough draw. "Sweet Sixteen or bust" requires a win over the Tigers, so we better nut up for them. The performances in the ACC Tournament were encouraging... to say the least. ACC regular season and tournament champions should have no trouble with the 4th place team from the American Athletic conference. However, I equate Memphis in quality to Pitt, and as we know, those were two tough wins for us to earn. Plus, Memphis poses very specific matchup problems for us.
12) Other teams' draws that I'm jealous of: Florida, Kansas, and Duke.
13) Other teams' draws that I do not envy: Arizona (Oklahoma St. in the 2nd round), Wichita State (Kentucky in the 2nd round, L'Ville in the S16), Villanova (UConn, then Iowa State, then us or Michigan State).
14) Looking at the big picture, I'd say we got a middle-of-the-road draw. Michigan State is a big boulder, but we got arguably the softest 8/9 matchup any 1-seed will face in the 2nd round.
15) You might be tempted to think "we're the 1-seed, we should be able to flex nuts all the way to the Final Four," but make absolutely no mistake --- if/when we face Michigan State in the Sweet Sixteen, we will be the underdog.
16) If we somehow get past the Spartans, I fully expect to see Iowa State in the Elite Eight. It's another terrible matchup for us. So if we do go on the miracle run to the Final Four, it truly will be a miracle.
17) I'm so freaking excited right now. What an awesome season, and an awesome bracket to finish it off!
18) We need Joe to go en fuego in this Tournament. We need Brog to keep being Brog. We need Akil to keep being Akil. We need Anthony Gill to continue his storm surge. We need London Perrantes to keep hunting his own shot. We need Mike Tobey to find his offense and his sense of aggression. We need Justin Anderson to make a bunch of Justin plays. We've got the kind of team that can win its regional and advance to the Final Four... now we just need to get it done.
19) GO HOOS!
March 16, 2014
Wahooze Bracket Challenge
By now, Wahooze nation, you should know your ACC CHAMPION VIRGINIA CAVALIERS are a NUMBER 1 SEED in the NCAA Tournament.
If you'd like to take on Mike, Kendall, and I in our annual bracket pool (and win eternal fame and glory MUCH LIKE JOE HARRIS HAS DONE). Hit this link:
http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2014/en/group?groupID=108132
PASSWORD IS "ROTUNDA"
More thoughts on our seedings, potential foes, and maybe some notes from my trip to the championship game to come soon...but for now, this:
If you'd like to take on Mike, Kendall, and I in our annual bracket pool (and win eternal fame and glory MUCH LIKE JOE HARRIS HAS DONE). Hit this link:
http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2014/en/group?groupID=108132
PASSWORD IS "ROTUNDA"
More thoughts on our seedings, potential foes, and maybe some notes from my trip to the championship game to come soon...but for now, this:
 |
| AKIL AND TSULLY ROCKING THE CHAMPIONSHIP TROPHY |
What to expect during the Selection Show.
(It's on at 6:00 on CBS, by the way.)
If Michigan State holds on to this 15-point lead and beats Michigan, I think there's a real, realistic chance that we'll get the last 1-seed. ACC regular season champs and ACC Tournament champs, it's a big deal. Not sure I remember a team winning both and not getting a 1.
But it's okay if we don't. A 2-seed would work just fine. In fact, there are some damn dangerous 8/9 seeds out there -- namely, Oklahoma State and Memphis -- that I'd prefer to avoid.
I think the floor is a 3-seed. I can't imagine that we'd drop that far, but it's possible. Rule 2b and all. And a 3-seed would be fine, too. We get a 3, we'll have a chip on the shoulder, and I like that.
We'll certainly, DEFINITELY be seeded in Raleigh. Which means we'll be playing on Friday and Sunday this coming weekend.
In any case, I think it's important to note that no matter what seed we get, and no matter what happens in the NCAA Tournament, this season has been a wild success.
That being established, like I've been saying for a calendar year: Sweet Sixteen or bust.
Not sure what the definition of "bust" is, but this team can, and should, have legit Final Four aspirations. Making it to at least the second weekend of the Big Dance should absolutely be the minimum expectation.
I'll be back tonight for some quick breakdown, then later this week for more in-depth stuff. Or maybe just something funny previewing the NCAAT... or both.
If Michigan State holds on to this 15-point lead and beats Michigan, I think there's a real, realistic chance that we'll get the last 1-seed. ACC regular season champs and ACC Tournament champs, it's a big deal. Not sure I remember a team winning both and not getting a 1.
But it's okay if we don't. A 2-seed would work just fine. In fact, there are some damn dangerous 8/9 seeds out there -- namely, Oklahoma State and Memphis -- that I'd prefer to avoid.
I think the floor is a 3-seed. I can't imagine that we'd drop that far, but it's possible. Rule 2b and all. And a 3-seed would be fine, too. We get a 3, we'll have a chip on the shoulder, and I like that.
We'll certainly, DEFINITELY be seeded in Raleigh. Which means we'll be playing on Friday and Sunday this coming weekend.
In any case, I think it's important to note that no matter what seed we get, and no matter what happens in the NCAA Tournament, this season has been a wild success.
That being established, like I've been saying for a calendar year: Sweet Sixteen or bust.
Not sure what the definition of "bust" is, but this team can, and should, have legit Final Four aspirations. Making it to at least the second weekend of the Big Dance should absolutely be the minimum expectation.
 |
| Got any other nets to cut down, Coach? How about a regional final? How about in Dallas? |
I'll be back tonight for some quick breakdown, then later this week for more in-depth stuff. Or maybe just something funny previewing the NCAAT... or both.
March 13, 2014
The ACC is Getting Louisville...
...and the Big Ten is getting Rutgers.
I wonder who's getting the better end of this bargain?
That's a cool SIXTY-FUCKING-ONE point beatdown, y'all. Now I know why they call 'em Scarlet Knights*.
* I'm referencing anal bleeding.
Meanwhile, for those of you greedily seed-tracking at home, here's Lunardi's current top 16, listed in the order in which I think the S-curve actually twists:
1-seeds
Florida
Wichita State
Arizona
Villanova
2-seeds
Kansas
Duke
Michigan
Wisconsin
3-seeds
Louisville
Virginia
Creighton
Syracuse
4-seeds
Cincinnati
North Carolina
San Diego State
Iowa State
I bring this up, because Nova lost to Seton Hall today. I don't think it drops them far, but I do think they're probably off the 1-seed line now. Kansas without Joel Embiid seems locked in at a 2, so I think Duke is moving up... unless, of course, they lose in the ACC Tournament. If UVA can run the table and take the championship in Greensboro... then I think we might actually earn that 1-seed.
Not that I want it.
I'd prefer a 3-seed, a Sweet Sixteen matchup with a flawed 2 (Kansas or Michigan), and no pressure of "living up to seed expectation" beyond the second round. I think that gives us the best chance to crush a 14, battle past a 6 (or 11), upset a 2, and roll into the E8 with a head of steam.
My dream bracket for UVA, based on the current seeding in Bracketology:
My nightmare bracket for UVA:
I wonder who's getting the better end of this bargain?
That's a cool SIXTY-FUCKING-ONE point beatdown, y'all. Now I know why they call 'em Scarlet Knights*.
* I'm referencing anal bleeding.
 |
| yeahbuddy |
Meanwhile, for those of you greedily seed-tracking at home, here's Lunardi's current top 16, listed in the order in which I think the S-curve actually twists:
1-seeds
Florida
Wichita State
Arizona
Villanova
2-seeds
Kansas
Duke
Michigan
Wisconsin
3-seeds
Louisville
Virginia
Creighton
Syracuse
4-seeds
Cincinnati
North Carolina
San Diego State
Iowa State
I bring this up, because Nova lost to Seton Hall today. I don't think it drops them far, but I do think they're probably off the 1-seed line now. Kansas without Joel Embiid seems locked in at a 2, so I think Duke is moving up... unless, of course, they lose in the ACC Tournament. If UVA can run the table and take the championship in Greensboro... then I think we might actually earn that 1-seed.
Not that I want it.
I'd prefer a 3-seed, a Sweet Sixteen matchup with a flawed 2 (Kansas or Michigan), and no pressure of "living up to seed expectation" beyond the second round. I think that gives us the best chance to crush a 14, battle past a 6 (or 11), upset a 2, and roll into the E8 with a head of steam.
My dream bracket for UVA, based on the current seeding in Bracketology:
- Virginia gets a 3-seed
- Positioned in Raleigh for the 1st/2nd round pod
- 1st round game against 14-seed UC-Irvine
- 2nd round game against the winner between 6-seed Texas and 11-seed Xavier
- 2-seed Kansas sitting across from us at the Sweet Sixteen, but maybe upset by 7-seed Gonzaga (or 10-seed George Washington) along the way
- 1-seed Wichita State
My nightmare bracket for UVA:
- 3-seed out West, San Diego or Spokane
- 1st round game against 14-seed Delaware
- 2nd round game against the winner between 6-seed UConn and 11-seed Nebraska
- 2-seed Wisconsin sitting across from us at the Sweet Sixteen, but maybe upset by 7-seed Kentucky (or 10-seed Colorado) along the way
- 1-seed Florida
Wow, that wandered off topic, didn't it?
Screw you Rutgers! Screw you, Maryland! Screw you, Big Ten!
Goodbye Forever, Maryland
Hoos play FSU tomorrow in the ACC Tournament Quarters, thanks to this game-winning buzzer-beating dunk by FSU's awkward big russian-ish guy:
Not only did FSU do the league a favor by putting Maryland in its rightful place: gone forever, but the Noles helped UVA's chances, in my opinion at least, of advancing to Saturday. UVA matches up much better with the Seminoles, as they've blown them out in both meetings this year. Will UVA be rusty again from so much time between games? Will FSU be tired from the fatigue of this physical and close game today? We'll see.
 |
| Please note #25's body language throughout the gif |
Not only did FSU do the league a favor by putting Maryland in its rightful place: gone forever, but the Noles helped UVA's chances, in my opinion at least, of advancing to Saturday. UVA matches up much better with the Seminoles, as they've blown them out in both meetings this year. Will UVA be rusty again from so much time between games? Will FSU be tired from the fatigue of this physical and close game today? We'll see.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)