Virginia Baseball 2013, Part III -- Rosterbations and Expectations

Mike and I are trying out a co-writing technique for this post.  What you see here is my words, but with him sitting behind me offering his thoughts as we go along.  So it's a true team effort.

Anyway, pass the lotion, it's time for some hardcore rosterbation!



In the Field:
C - Nate Irving / Scott Williams / Robbie Coman
1B - Jared King
2B - Reed Gragnani
SS - Branden Cogswell
3B - Nick Howard / George Ragsdale
LF - Derek Fisher
CF - Brandon Downes / Mitchell Shifflett
RF - Colin Harrington

Notes:

• King, Fisher, and Harrington are locked into their spots at 1st base, left field, and right field, respectively.
• Nate Irving will catch Friday nights and Saturdays, but don't be surprised to see one of the hotshot freshman catchers (Scott Williams or Robbie Coman) start on Sundays, to help save Irving's legs, especially when the Saturday games are later in the day -- day game after night game is a tough turnaround for a catcher.  Also, this is the way you develop understudy catchers, by giving them semi-regular playing time.  (Think backup quarterback playing mop-up duty.)
• There is some debate about where Reed Gragnani will end up, but most tea leaves suggest that he's Keith Werman's replacement at 2nd base.  Expect a slight drop-off defensively at that position, though Grags' 6-foot frame is better suited to handle those line drives.
• Branden Cogswell was specifically recruited to take over the shortstop position in 2013, so here we go.  Let's see what he's got as an everyday starter.
• Nick Howard has 3rd base written all over him.  Not sure if he'll still be used as a relief pitcher, but if he is, look for true freshman George Ragsdale to see some occasional action at 3rd base.  Or maybe we'll see Downes at 2nd with Grags at 3rd and Shifflett in CF.
• Downes took over center field duties late in the 2012 season, but Mitchell Shifflett was still a regular 9th inning defensive replacement and/or pinch runner.  His speed and defense are still great assets... but the kid cannot hit.  If he picks up a Werm-style ability to battle onto base, then it could be a real game-changer.  But for now, expect Downes' more competent bat to win the starting job in center.

Batting Order:
1 - Downes
2 - Gragnani
3 - Fisher
4 - King
5 - Howard
6 - Harrington
7 - Mike Papi (DH) / Kenny Towns (DH) / George Ragsdale (DH)
8 - Irving
9 - Cogswell

Notes:

• Big debate about the leadoff spot.  Ultimately, we went with Downes here, because he has displayed a better bat than Cogswell to this point.  Also, Downes has been more successful on the basepaths.  So Downes leads off, with Cogswell batting 9th, aka, the "2nd leadoff" spot.  But those two could be interchangeable.
• Grags bats in the 2-hole because he's a switch hitter and a high on-base guy.  You want someone who can hit left-handed batting second, to take advantage of the hole created when the leadoff man is on 1st.
• The meat of the order looks great here.  3 thru 6 really has a lot of offensive potential.  This lineup offers punch like we had in 2011, with Proscia, Hicks, Hultzen, and King in the middle of the order.
• Designated hitter is a total wildcard.  Irving should DH on Sundays if he's not catching.  This is also Mike Papi's best chance to salvage his UVA career after living in the O'Connor doghouse as a freshman due to a lack of hustle.  Towns is a very competent hitter, but lacks the defensive juice to beat out anyone in the field.  Finally, Ragsdale DHing is just a hunch.  I think Oak will have a hard time keeping the kid's live bat out of the order on occasion.  Anyway, lots of good options here, not just for DHing, but also for pinch hitting.

Rotation:
Fri - Nathan Kirby (LHP)
Sat - Artie Lewicki (RHP)
Sun - Kyle Crockett (LHP)
Midweek - Brett Lisle (LHP)

Notes:

• Artie Lewicki will start the season as the Friday night starter, but it's our best guess that Kirby takes that spot like Danny Hultzen did in 2009.  Can't stress this enough: Kirby projects as a staff ace, sooner rather than later.
• Lewicki is our only veteran starter, so look for him to settle in as the Saturday starter, just like he settled in as the Sunday starter in 2011.  At his best, he's a Will Roberts-style innings-eater.
• O'Connor and Coach Kuhn have resisted the urge to start Kyle Crockett, but that temptation might just be too great in 2013.  If Crockett can handle extended innings (like he did in Omaha in 2010), then he's a plus-plus-plus Sunday starter, maybe the best #3 starter in the ACC.
• Brett Lisle has developed a bit of folk hero acclaim in practice this season.  The hulking (6-foot-9) lefty has slowly begun to locate his pitches, which makes him a great candidate to either start, earn a starring role in the bullpen, or even close games in 2013.  I just like the idea of putting a 6-9 guy on the mound against the types of teams we'll face midweek -- William & Mary, Liberty, JMU, Marist, VMI, Towson, George Washington, VCU, Richmond, Radford, etc., etc., etc.  Talk about intimidation.  Anyway, for a guy who's been in the program for a year already but has yet to see action, listing him as the midweek starter may be a reach.  But the word is that Lisle has really picked it up as the season has gone along.  I see a career similar to FSU's Hunter Scantling (a 6-8, 270 behemoth), where he starts out dabbling as a midweek starter before emerging as an impact weekend pitcher later in his career.
• We don't list Whit Mayberry here because he's trying to return from Tommy John surgety, usually a 1.5-year process.  If he were healthy, he'd be a lock to start at some point during the weekends.

Bullpen:
LHP - Ryan Ashooh / Aaron Stull / Nathaniel Abel / B. Waddell / D. Rosenberger
RHP - Austin Young / Barrett O'Neill / Tyler Carrico / Trey Oest / Cameron Tekker
Long Relief - Joel Effertz (RHP) / Scott Silverstein (LHP)
Closer - Josh Sborz

Notes:

• The bullpen is - by far - the most difficult area to project.  That said, I think we know we'll see a lot of young talent battling for roles in 2013.  Many of these players are guys we've never seen before, or have only seen in very limited action -- Ashooh only pitched 1.2 innings in 2012, and Abel pitched 5.1 innings.  Stull didn't pitch at all.  Waddell, Rosenberger, Carrico, Oest, and Tekker are incoming freshmen.  Austin Young pitched the most of this group, with 33.1 innings (including a nice 2-inning run against Army in the Charlottesville Regional), and inspires the most confidence.  Barrett O'Neill pitched 20.2 innings, but was mostly shaky, with a 5.23 ERA.  Bottom line, we have a whole lot of question marks and not many exclamation points in the 'pen.
• We are projecting Joel Effertz to long relief, the premise being that you throw your 5th-best starter in that role in an attempt to eat innings in a mostly hopeless situation.
• If Scott Silverstein is back, a big IF, then we're projecting him to compete with Effertz for the long relief role.  Two reasons for that: 1) The nature of his creaky arm demands he pitch after he warms up, and prevents him from participating in the cycle of warming up and cooling down numerous times like a true relief pitcher would need to do.  2) He won't be a starter in 2013.  He just doesn't have it in his arm, unfortunately.  So what we're left with here is a role player without many options for roles to fill.
• Naming Josh Sborz as the closer is a bold prediction on our part.  Crockett, Young, or Lisle could just as easily take that crucial role.  We just see Sborz as having too much ability -- really good stuff but only two developed "out" pitches.  Think of Branden Kline's sophomore season.  Think of a harder-throwing Shane Halley.  Sborz has the goods, he just doesn't have the polished repertoire of pitches necessary to be a starter and go multiple innings.  But honestly, that picture of him with the eye black is what inspired us to name him the closer for 2013.  92 mph, curve, change -- that's closer stuff, and Sborz brings it to the table as a true freshman.

Fall 2012 Position Battles:
SS - Cogswell vs. Towns
CF - Downes vs. Shifflett
DH - Papi vs. Towns vs. Ragsdale
Friday Starter - Lewicki vs. Kirby
Sunday Starter - Crockett vs. Lisle vs. Sborz vs. Silverstein vs. Effertz vs. O'Neill
Closer - Young vs. Sborz



Expectations:
Our expectations for the offense in 2013 are fairly lofty.  We have a lot of guys who can run, slap hit to gaps, bang out a lot of doubles, and spark a lot of multi-run rallies.  There's not a lot of home run type power beyond Fisher and King, but everyone in the order should realistically be able to maintain averages above .300 and drive in a bunch of runs with power to the walls.  Think doubles and runs, not necessarily home runs and grand slams.  That said, this also is not a team that will require smallball and Werman-style bullshit to manufacture runs with bunts and putting pressure on opposing fielders.  We'll still be aggressive on the basepaths, especially in hit and run situations, which is part of the DNA of Brian O'Connor Baseball.  Scoring runs shouldn't be a problem, and it should happen in spurts in 2013.

In the field, UVA under O'Connor has always sparkled.  2013 should be no different, though we will likely see some flubs from the reconfigured infield.  Going from Werm to Grags at 2nd base is a net loss of defense.  Nick Howard and Branden Cogswell will need to get their dicks wet and quickly adjust to the influx of playing time and the associated pressure.  Nate Irving playing in his second season as a starter is a boon not to be underestimated.  He'll be a better backstop, and he'll be better able to manage the pitching staff.  In all, expect more of the same good-to-quite-good defense for the Hoos in 2013.

Mike equates the 2013 pitching staff to the 2012 football secondary.  There's a ton of talent, but it's mostly young, and you have no idea how it will perform.  Also, there could be problems with depth.  Who knows how the bullpen will shake out?  Who knows if we can count on these freshmen that have been hand-picked to rebuild this staff?  In the end, we just have to trust Coach Oak and Coach K's ability to massage the best performance possible from this staff.  If the 2012 staff was able to pitch us to 39 wins, the 2013 staff should be able to earn 40+ wins, as top to bottom, it is a deeper, more talented unit.

Overall, we are expecting lots and lots of success in 2013.  Maybe more games that we win 6-3 or 7-5, instead of those 2-1 nailbiters.  We'll have to win some slugfests and shootouts, especially early, as the pitching staff and rebuilt infield settles in.

GO HOOS!