NBA Mock Draft

Aloha!

I'm back from my mini-sabbatical, looking around at the wasteland of another UVA sports offseason (Virginia Football training camp starts in August!), and not wanting to touch the radioactive Sullivan / BOV mess with a 10-foot pole.

So what's on my mind right now?

Weirdly, it's Thursday's NBA Draft.

WHAAATTTT???

Yeah, that's right, the NBA.

Four reasons I'm interested in what everyone else seems to think is a bombed-out zombie apocalypse of a professional sports league:

1) I found myself not just watching, but enjoying the playoffs this year.  I'm not really a Heat-hater, so it was kinda cool to see the best basketball player I've ever seen - LeBron James, who just took over the top spot from Michael Jordan in my opinion - win his first title.  But not only that, it was youth being served in OKC, it was the battle the Pacers gave Miami, it was the 8-seed upset pulled off by Philly, it was the old man Celtics making a nice run (love KG and Jesus Shuttlesworth), it was the collapse of my most hated NBA team (Lakers), and it was the dawn of good basketball in a lot of places that haven't seen it in a while -- Indiana, New York, Philly, Clippers.  I know the playoffs are usually good, but for some reason this year's were just really fun to watch.  Maybe it was all of the young talent maturing on the biggest stage.  I like that kind of stuff.

2) Mike Scott is about to get drafted.  He's one of my favorite UVA players of the last two decades, and he'll be the first since Roger Mason (whom I never really forgave for stupidly leaving Virginia early) to suit up in the NBA after starring for the Hoos.  Can't wait to follow Mike's career.  Even more exciting, I think he is just the start of a steady flowing pipeline of UVA players into the Association.  Joe Harris will be drafted, and my money is also on Justin Anderson, Evan Nolte, and Anthony Gill playing in the NBA at some point, as well.  As our basketball program ascends, the professional talent we produce will also be on the uptick.

3) I have it on pretty good authority that there's a better-than-zero chance that the Norfolk / Hampton Roads area will be getting an NBA franchise at some point in the next decade; this will be the state of Virginia's first top-level professional sports franchise since the Virginia Squires left Norfolk in '76.  So I'm hellbent on developing into an NBA fan in preparation for a state team.

4) I have not one, not two, but three dogs in the fight, all with lottery picks in this year's draft:

1. The team I followed as a kid through their rise and eventual collapse in the 2000's, the Sacramento Kings.  Still the best team ball I've ever seen, that Webber / Divac / Bibby / Jackson / Christie / Stojakovic core.
2. The hometown(ish) Washington Wizards.
3. The team that my wife and I decided to follow together as a fun couple's activity, the Milwaukee Bucks.  FEAR THE DEER.

So with that, and with you knowing that I know my business when it comes to college basketball, I present to you my 2012 NBA Mock Draft.  I hope you enjoy it!



#1 New Orleans Hornets -- Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky
Totally obvious, lock it in and throw away the key.  But I've got some things to say here: 1) Can Tom Benson please, PLEASE throw some cash at Salt Lake City and buy back the name "Jazz?"  New Orleans Hornets sounds stupid, but Utah Jazz makes me want to pull out my last few surviving hairs.  2) Speaking of hairs... you already know what I'm going to say here... Anthony Davis, I know it's your calling card or whatever, but that unibrow is just totally ridiculous and distracting.  Please shave a divider.  Please.  3) I think Davis is going to be a modest bust in the NBA.  I don't think his game translates particularly well to the professional level, and I don't think he'll have enough of a supporting cast in Charl... er... New Orleans.  I'm predicting an Emeka Okafor type of career.  Not bad, but nothing special.  There it is, I think Anthony Dais will be a bust.  [Really, I wanted to make this post just so I could get that on record.]
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BUST

#2 Charlotte Bobcats -- Bradley Beal, SG, Florida
I actually think the Bobcats trade this pick, most likely to the Cavaliers, who can package the #4 and #24 picks to move up and build a nice backcourt with Beal and Kyrie Irving.  In any case, through the recent pre-draft process, Beal has emerged as the second-best prospect in this draft.  Pencil him in at #2 overall and move on.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BEAST

#3 Washington Wizards -- Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas
With the trade to acquire Okafor and Trevor Ariza, the Wiz added two more building blocks to the Nene / Vesely / Seraphin / Trevor Booker / Chris Singleton frontcourt, and suddenly DC seems to have some functional players up front, and some guys who should be offer some very good defensive efforts.  What the Wiz really needs to add to this mix is a shooting guard to play alongside John Wall... but with Beal off the board the pick is another weapon for the frontcourt in DC native Thomas Robinson.  T-Rob is the kind of mature two-way player who can stabilize this roster with leadership and the appropriate intangibles.  Things are getting crowded in this frontcourt, but that's how you win in the NBA - with bigs and wings.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BEAST

#4 Cleveland Cavaliers -- Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina
I'm not a huge Harrison Barnes fan, and I think he'll only have a so-so professional career.  Perfect pick for the Cavs, another draft bust that they fell in love with pre-draft for no good reason.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BUST

#5 Sacramento Kings -- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky
He's got a low ceiling, but I like MKG as a player.  John Salmons and Francisco Garcia have played musical chairs at the small forward position for the last few seasons, so the pick makes sense.  I just think MKG is more of a glue guy and a defender than he is a legit star, so #5 feels too high.  But the Kings definitely need an influx of toughness, grit, and intangibles, and a guy who can make a positive impact on games without the ball in his hands would be nice to add to the mix.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BEAST

#6 Portland Trailblazers -- Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State
Lillard has been a fast riser, and I think that rise peaks at #6 overall.  The Blazers need a point guard and a big man from this draft, and Lillard is a more exciting talent than Andre Drummond or Meyers Leonard at this spot.  Besides, one of those two guys or Tyler Zeller will slide to their second pick at #11.  Lillard will not.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BEAST

#7 Golden State Warriors -- Terrence Ross, SG, Washington
Here's the shocking reach in the lottery picks.  The Warriors desperately need an athletic wing to add to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, and Jerry West makes draft picks based on his own personal convictions.  I actually like Ross a lot at this pick; I think his skill set and athleticism will make him a better pro player than what we saw from him in college.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BEAST

#8 Toronto Raptors -- Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse
Ugh, the Raptors.  God, what a crap team.  Waiters is one of my favorite players in this draft, but Toronto has to pick someone, and they need a player who can attack the basket.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BACKUP

#9 Detroit Pistons -- John Henson, PF, North Carolina
For the Pistons, the task at hand is to build a team around Greg Monroe.  I think Henson is a total punk, but he is an athletic post presence who would form a nice compliment to Monroe.  The question is if Detroit wants to go with size and scoring or with defense and athleticism.  Andre Drummond or Meyers Leonard is the choice for the bigger "twin towers" look, but Henson's ability level is a bit more rare.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BACKUP

#10 New Orleans Hornets -- Austin Rivers, SG, Duke
Who to pair with Anthony Davis?  Makes sense to go with a guard who can score, and Rivers fits the bill.  I personally think the guy is cocky to the point of fault, but pro scouts see that swagger as confidence and view it as a plus.  I'm already on record in saying I think Davis will be a bust, and I feel the same way about Austin Rivers.  If the draft plays out like this and I am correct about the busting, then this will be disastrous for the Hornets franchise.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BUST

#11 Portland Trailblazers -- Andre Drummond, C, UConn
Drummond slides, and still needing a big, the Blazers pounce.  I'm not sure how good Drummond is, or how much better he might get, but he's supposedly a legit pro prospect with his size (7-0, 280) and athleticism.  He's the kind of raw big man that has been getting NBA general mangers fired since the beginning of time.  Olowokandi, anyone?
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BUST

#12 Milwaukee Bucks -- Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois
The Bucks get their replacement for Andrew Bogut.  I actually like the way this team is building -- Brandon Jennings is a legit star, and the pieces are coming together around him.  Landing Ekpe Udoh in that Bogut trade was a master stroke for Milwaukee.  I love the Nightmare, and I think he can develop into an Ibaka-type defensive presence.  Leonard offers a nice compliment to what's already in place in that frontcourt.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BACKUP

#13 Phoenix Suns -- Jeremy Lamb, SG, UConn
The Suns need an explosive, dynamic scoring guard.  Lamb was certainly explosive and dynamic in college, but I'm not sure he's not just "another guy" at the NBA level.  #13 is probably too low to land a real difference-making scoring guard in this particular draft, unless you want a sweet shooter like Vanderbilt's John Jenkins.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BUST

#14 Houston Rockets -- Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina
The Rockets are desperate for bigs, and Zeller - while completely unsexy - is a sound option.  A ho-hum pick that should help the team.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BACKUP

#15 Philadelphia 76ers -- Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State
The Sixers don't have any big men under contract beyond next year, and they could really use reinforcements in the frontcourt.  They were at their best in the playoffs when Spence Hawes was knocking down mid-range shots, and that's Moultrie's specialty.  He's like a bigger, better-rebounding Mike Scott.  This pick might be a slight reach, but it's a great fit for Philly.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BEAST

#16 Houston Rockets -- Perry Jones, PF, Baylor
Zeller was the safe pick -- low ceiling, high floor.  Coupling him with the roll-the-dice pick of Perry Jones could be a savvy move for the Rockets as they try to rebuild their frontcourt.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BUST

#17 Dallas Mavericks -- Royce White, SF, Iowa State
Call this a hunch.  Jason Kidd 2.0 in Kendall Marshall would be a good conventional wisdom pick, as would somewhat-safe big man Terrence Jones.  I just think White's unique package -- a big-bodied 6-8, 265-pound "point forward," jives well with this weird mix the Mavs have brewed up.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BEAST

#18 Minnesota Timberwolves -- Will Barton, SG, Memphis
The T-Wolves need scorers at the shooting guard position, and Barton (a popular draft sleeper) is pretty explosive, with a really diverse skill set.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BACKUP

#19 Orlando Magic -- Terrence Jones, PF, Kentucky
The thing that strikes me about this exercise is that so many teams in the NBA are just a total mess right now.  The Magic chief among those teams, even though they made the playoffs this season.  Essentially, they just need to build assets in preparation for life with a Dwight Howard-sized hole blasted through their roster.  So it's best player available for the Magic, which is the draft-sliding Terrence Jones (Kendall Marshall is just too redundant to what they already have in Jameer Nelson.)
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BACKUP

#20 Denver Nuggets -- Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina
Obviously, Ty Lawson is the starter for the Nugs, but Marshall would be a nice guy to bring off the bench and possibly develop into a tradeable asset.  I personally think his total and complete inability to shoot will doom Marshall's pro career, but he won't slide past pick #20 in this draft.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BUST

#21 Boston Celtics -- Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure
Time for a youth movement.  The Celtics need this pick to be good and stick on the roster, and bonus points if the pick helps fill the massive void they have in the frontcourt, with KG and Brandon Bass both free agents.  I've personally never seen Nicholson play other than in the NCAA Tournament, where he was freaking awesome in a 3-point loss to Florida State.  He's a fast-riser in the pre-draft process.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BEAST

#22 Boston Celtics -- Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State
He has a bad back, but it's risk vs. reward at this point, and the C's have a steal if Sullinger is healthy.  But we've seen this before when Sullinger was named Marcus Fizer.  There's just not a place in the league for below-the-rim bigs.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BUST

#23 Atlanta Hawks -- Tony Wroten Jr., PG, Washington
He's a bit wild and erratic, but as a big point guard, I think he has an NBA future.  He might be a career reserve, but Wroten will stick.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BACKUP

#24 Cleveland Cavaliers -- Fab Melo, C, Syracuse
With Barnes already in tow, the Cavs add the risky pick of Fab Melo to the witch's cauldron.  If he stays focused and develops, he could be one of the top 5 or 6 players from this draft, and Cleveland certainly needs to gamble on talent at this point.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BUST

#25 Memphis Grizzlies -- Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky
Backup point guard behind Mike Conley.  No more, no less.  Sometimes it's just that simple.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BACKUP

#26 Indiana Pacers -- Mo Harkless, SF, St. John's
Incredible slide for Harkless, incredible value pick at a position of need for the Pacers.  This exciting young team gets even better.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BEAST

#27 Miami Heat -- John Jenkins, SG, Vanderbilt
Easy enough: Surround LeBron with shooters, win championships.  Most draftniks have Jenkins going in the second round, but he is one of the best pure shooters I have ever seen.  I think he sneaks into the end of the first round, and makes an impact as the Heat surge toward title #2 next season.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BEAST

#28 Oklahoma City Thunder -- Jeff Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt
Back-to-back Vandy picks.  Taylor gives OKC another defensive stopper and a backup for Kevin Durant who can come off the bench and score.  Nice role-playing reserve with some decent upside.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BACKUP

#29 Chicago Bulls -- Draymond Green, PF, Michigan State
The Bulls - built around the tiny and fragile Derrick Rose - will never win a title (ask Allen Iverson's Sixers).  They are stuck adding bit parts and role players, hoping to find lightning in a bottle while they slowly come to grips with the reality that they need to blow it up and start over.  Draymond Green is a very versatile player who can add some scoring oompf to this team.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BACKUP

#30 Golden State Warriors -- Festus Ezeli, C, Vanderbilt
Big frame, not a lot of upside, but could have a nice career as a backup 5.
Beast, Bust, or Backup: BACKUP


But what about Mike Scott???
He goes #35 overall to the Warriors and has a better NBA career than ten of the 30 guys picked in the first round -- Ezeli, Teague, Melo, Wroten, Sullinger, Marshall, Perry Jones, Lamb, Drummond, and Rivers.

BEAST