Pages

June 8, 2012

Virginia Baseball 2013, Part I -- Goodbye and Good Luck!

I've been contemplating this piece for a week already, and even though the MLB just completed the process of churning through the late rounds of its draft, I think we have enough knowledge to proceed.

I don't want to do a detailed autopsy on the 2012 season.  It was what it was -- a campaign of modestly exceeded expectations, ultimately derailed by a late-season lack of quality pitching and postseason slumps for two of our top hitters: Jared King and Derek Fisher.  It was also a season of characteristic Virginia-style elite defense, and a season of a lot - a LOT! - of young players getting playing time.  At its core, it was a rebuilding season.  Some might try to argue that it was a "reloading" season, but we're not quite at that level yet.  It was a rebuilding season.

That's not to say that there weren't great moments of success.  Savor the following, for example:

  • The series sweep of Clemson at a clutch, turn-the-corner point of the season in late March.
  • The series sweep of Miami in Coral Gables in late April.
  • Seven ACC series wins vs. just three ACC series losses, and an 18-12 overall ACC record.  This in a conference that ended up leading the nation in NCAA Tournament 1-seeds and host sites, with five of the 16 total.  (Most prognosticators agreed that the ACC was the best baseball conference this season, with FSU, UNC, NC State, UVA, Miami, GT, and Clemson all qualifying for the postseason.)
  • The masterful 7-0 victory over Florida State in the ACC Tournament.
  • Stephen Bruno's breakout season of .370 hitting with 6 homers and a nice .559 slugging percentage.
  • Colin Harrington's impressive 6-for-10 performance at the ACC Tournament (earning him the nickname "Mr. Greensboro.")
  • Artie Lewicki's emergence as a legit weekend starter, sporting a tidy 3.82 ERA and a solid 50 to 22 K to walk ratio.
  • The 27-11 rally from an 11-8-1 start to 38-17-1 and being chosen as a 1-seed and regional host in the NCAA Tournament.

It was a good season.  Not a great season, but a good one.  (For Virginia Baseball, any season that ends prior to the Super Regionals or College World Series cannot be considered "great."  That's how far this program has ascended.)

A year ago, this is what I said about Virginia Baseball, and it still rings true today:
Like many of my fellow fans, this program has hooked me, violently and right through the cheek. It's a team that plays hard, performs with grit, conducts itself with class, produces professional-level talent, competes with the elite programs in the sport, and simply wins games with an exciting brand of aggressive baseball. It's about pitching and defense and producing runs; it's about giving the fans a team it can really embrace. I love everything about Virginia Baseball right now.
Amen and Hallelujah.  In O'Connor We Trust.

In my humble opinion, Oak is the best coach at UVA,
in any sport... dare I say, ever?

Again, this series of posts is not going to be a lengthy post-mortem on the 2012 season.  Instead, this is a look ahead to 2013, a season in which Virginia should challenge for 40+ wins, a fourth-straight 1-seed and regional hosting privilege, and a trip to at least the NCAA Tournament's second weekend.

Let's do it.


Part I -- Goodbye and Good Luck!

Before we can look ahead, we have to first take a quick moment to tip the cap to the graduating seniors and the draft-eligible juniors.  The Wahooze twist is to consider what it is - exactly - we're losing with these guys.


GRADS

Keith Werman -- Big Werm is the consummate pest, the living embodiment of why on base percentage (Werm: .390) is a so much more worthwhile stat to track than simple batting average (Werm: .274) when you want to try to consider a player's true worth.  Werm brought more to this program than his great bunting, battling onto base, and A+ defense; he brought a scrappy mindset and a grit that will not be replaced.  With that being said, I do look forward to seeing a 2nd baseman who is taller than an oompa-loompa, and a guy who can do some real damage with the stick beyond timely smallball participation.  No slight on Werm, who has been a real joy to watch during his UVA career, but a player like him can only give you so much, and him occupying a starting position comes at the opportunity cost of being able to play a more traditionally effective, productive player.  Case in point, Werm made some fantastic defensive plays at 2nd, but how many line drives got over his head?  Would the extra six inches provided by a 6-footer at that spot help out on those?  My only real wish is that Werm has taught Mitchell Shifflett how to properly lay down a bunt.

Bunts away!  Love ya, Big Werm.

Justin Thompson -- A decent enough relief pitcher in his time at UVA, and his 12 saves in 2012 was certainly a solid number.  But his efforts to close out games could routinely be classified as "adventurous," and that's not a good thing for a player you want to see slam the door on opponents.  I'm not sure who the new closer will be, but I will tell you that I have a hard time seeing much of a drop-off from JT... who was at best simply an average closer by UVA standards.  He provided good leadership in the clubhouse and helped give the team its personality, but squad intangibles evolve quickly and I don't think JT will be leaving a void that is impossible to fill.

Shane Halley -- As a senior, Sugar Shane emerged as one of our two best bullpen arms, mowing down 46 batters in just over 50 innings pitched en route to a sporty 2.15 ERA.  In a statistical anomaly, he led the team in wins, with his 9-2 record.  Of the three graduating seniors, he was the only one drafted, going in the 20th round (613th overall) to the Kansas City Royals.  Werm leaves a hole at 2nd and JT leaves a hole at the closer position, but in my approximation, Halley is the biggest loss of these three guys.  He had a really good season, derailed by that damn oblique injury at the end of the campaign.


DRAFTED, DEFINITELY LEAVING

Branden Kline -- The kid was a real talent, but it was a weird career he just completed here at Virginia.  From the bullpen to closing to starting on Fridays, I never got the feeling that Kline settled into any sort of rhythm for the Hoos.  Which is too bad, because he's really a great talent.  The Orioles made him the 65th overall pick in the draft, and I'm certain the money will be there for him to sign.  He's already hinted pretty strongly that he's leaving, saying:
"I've loved every minute I've been in this institution," Kline said on a conference call Tuesday. "It's great academically, a prestigious school, of course the baseball program is one of the top in the country, and I've met some of my best friends that I'm going to know for the rest of my life here, both on the team and off the team. And the coaching staff is always going to be there for the players that stay or leave."
HERE'S the link to that story, from Jeff White.

Good luck with the Os, Branden!

So what are we losing in Kline?  For one, we're losing arguably our best starting pitcher, and the guy who held down the ace role in the rotation as the Friday night starter for most of the season.  15 starts, 93.2 innings pitched, 94 Ks, 3.56 ERA, 7-3 record.  Not Hultzen numbers, but solid.  Kline's departure leaves a huge gaping hole in the weekend rotation, and whether or not he met expectations during his UVA career, he was undoubtedly a "plus" player for the program.  He didn't always look like an ace this season, but he was generally more answer than question.

Chris Taylor -- I want to be blunt about this: I think CT should stay at UVA.  He didn't have a great season, at the plate (.284 average) or with his glove (19 errors.)  But drafted in the 5th round (161st overall, to the Mariners), he's as good as gone.  I'm not sure where he fits in professional baseball.  He's not good enough defensively for the middle infield, nor is he a good enough hitter for either corner infield spot.  He's a utility player in the pros, and that seems to be his ceiling.  I predict a prolonged period of toiling in the minors, as much as it pains me to say it.  Whereas if he returned to Virginia, he'd have another year starting at shortstop, and an opportunity to build up his defense and hitting for average.  But the money will be there for a 5th rounder, and I think he's gone.  With Taylor leaving, the Hoos are left trying to replace their starting SS.  Worse, we're left trying to replace a truly clutch hitter.


DRAFTED, PROBABLY LEAVING

Stephen Bruno -- He was definitely our best hitter this season, stroking a nice .370 average and blasting a surprising 6 home runs and .559 slugging percentage.  He was decent at 3rd base, but it was his bat that really shined this season.  Bruno had a rough, injury-plagued beginning to his UVA career, but he flexed nuts in 2012.  Drafted in the 7th round (224th overall, to the Cubs), I doubt he returns to UVA, but O'Connor left that door open.  We'll see what happens, but considering the fact that no player chosen within the first 10 rounds of the MLB draft has ever returned to school during O'Connor's tenure, I think it's safe to assume Bruno is gone.  [But maybe not -- he's only a redshirt sophomore, and would be draft-eligible again in 2013 and also 2014, a unique position, and still maintaining contract leverage with his big league club if he does decide to return to school.  Still, I think we have to assume he's gone.]  In Bruno's absence, UVA must replace its starting 3rd baseman, and its best overall hitter... and in my opinion, its best player from the 2012 season.  No small task.



WHO THE HELL KNOWS?

Scott Silverstein -- Poor guy.  As a 2008 recruit, Silverstein was rated higher than Danny Hultzen, but spent most of his first two years at Virginia trying to battle back from two surgeries to repair a torn labrum.  As a redshirt sophomore in 2011, he only pitched 14 innings.  In 2012, he earned a spot in the weekend rotation, starting 15 games.  He was pretty solid at the beginning of the season, but as time churned along, Silverstein became less and less and less effective, like his arm strength slowly deteriorated.  His ill-fated start against Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament (2 innings pitched, 4 hits, 4 earned runs) was his last appearance of the season.  He didn't see action at any point during the Charlottesville regional, definitely a bad sign... especially when you consider that Sugar Shane got the start against Oklahoma, chest injury and all.  Now a UVA graduate, Silverstein still has a season of eligibility remaining, but does he want to come back and try to grind through the battle for playing time?  Does the coaching staff even want him back?  He's a lefty, but the state of his shoulder prevents him from being much of a bullpen option -- either he warms up and pitches, or he warms up, cools down, and is lost for the next two or three days.  There's no bounce-back in his arm, and there's not much juice in there, either.  I feel bad for Bagel, but whether he returns or not, I don't think he'll figure very prominently in the plans for 2013.



That concludes Part I.  Coming soon: Part II -- Hello, Nice to Meet You

No comments:

Post a Comment