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June 11, 2012

Virginia Baseball 2013, Part II -- Hello, Nice to Meet You



In Part I, we took a look at the players leaving the baseball program and what we were losing with each one of those departures.  Now, in Part II, we'll take a look at the incoming freshmen, always a fun exercise with Coach O'Connor's atomic flexnuts recruiting.

As far as I know, none of these guys were drafted, so ALL of them should be on a trajectory to join the team later this summer.  All blue quotes are from Perfect Game, other quotes have sources noted.


Nathan Kirby, LHP -- 6-1, 180 / L-L / James River HS, Midlothian VA:
"Lean athletic build, room to get stronger, good projection. Fast paced delivery with some effort, long loose extended arm action, extended 3/4's release, very fast arm coming through, falls off on release affecting command. 88-91 mph fastball, sat at 91 mph early, big running life on fastball, gets on hitters quickly. Outstanding hard spin and bite on curveball, big hard break at times, slider velocity but knucklecurve grip, can be nasty when everything is right. Rare change up. Movement on fastball and size of curveball are hard to command. Very difficult to hit when in the zone. High level arm."

Mike Sez: "Running" in this sense refers to the lateral movement of Kirby's Fastball. His 3/4 delivery is responsible for this. The cutting action through the ball generates enough spin to run the ball away from righties. Tough to master, but can be deadly. To put it in perspective, every inch a fastball moves adds 1-2 miles per hour from the hitters view. Based strictly on this Perfect Game write-up from after his junior season, Kirby has stud written all over him. James River is always good, so mining them for talent is a good plan for UVA.

Washington-Lee HS Coach Doug Grove Sez: UVA has reloaded their pitching staff. I saw Nathan Kirby pitch last week. He is unreal. Lefty throws 92-93 mph, with a slider, change.

From Baseball Prospect Nation: "As has been widely reported over the last week, James River High School lefty Nathan Kirby’s name will not be in the mix for the draft this year. After months of telling teams he had no intention of signing, Kirby went an extra step and refused to participate in MLB’s medical and drug screening programs that are required of all potential top draft picks.

Kirby had been refusing in-home visits from scouts and other MLB team officials and there were rumors swirling of bonus demands in excess of mid-first round money.

Though many scouts consider Kirby one of the better left-handed pitchers in this year’s high school class, he doesn’t match up with the overall potential of guys like Max Fried and Matt Smoral. “He’s not a premium athlete and it’s not as free and easy as it was last year,” said an AL scout. “You have to know you’re getting a high school reliever right out of the gate.”

Kirby may ultimately get his multi-million dollar bonus if he can head off to the University of Virginia and improve his draft stock. With a fastball that sits at 88-91 mph and a potential plus-plus hammer curveball, he has the building blocks to be an outstanding college pitcher and could be in consideration of the upper half of the first round in three years."

College baseball scouting guru John Lezzi Sez: "LHP, 91-93 MPH, 80 MPH curve, devastating slider, also throws a change-up that is developing. Great movement on his fast ball. Throws from a 3/4 arm slot. Overpowers hitters. Sometimes struggles with his accuracy but that actually helps him. Pitched fantastically in Jupiter, Florida this past fall and blew up on the scouting radar. Had the potential to be a top 1-3 round draft pick. Was a preseason 3rd team all-American on Baseball America and is rated the #63 player on PerfectGame. He is the power arm you guys are looking for, he will battle for a weekend rotation spot right away.

Kendall Sez: Everyone I talk to about this believes that Nathan Kirby is our next Danny Hultzen.  Point blank.  I think it's important to note that this kid was going to be an early draft pick coming out of high school, as in, drafted about the same time as Branden Kline, but without the three years of college seasoning.  I think Kirby will follow Hultzen's career path at UVA: light it up in his first career start on a Saturday, then replace the veteran incumbent (Artie Lewicki to Hultzen's Andrew Carraway) as the Friday night starter for the rest of the season.  Nathan Kirby has the potential to be our staff ace, as a true freshman.  We should all be thanking our lucky stars he decided to forego the MLB draft and come to UVA.


Josh Sborz
Josh Sborz, RHP -- 6-2, 200 / R-R / McLean HS, McLean VA:
"Sborz has a big strong build, ball comes out of hand well, fastball has good life, attacks hitters, good 11-5 curveball, has good bite, projects well, high follow on the mound. Also showed good power potential at the plate, hits to all fields, good hitting tools."

From Orioles Nation: "Josh Sborz - brother to former Tigers righthander Jay - is a big strong pitcher with a fast arm. Fastball sits 90-92 with more velocity to come. The pitch has good present life, and he commands it well, attacking the strikezone. Good spin on 11-5 curveball, in the mid 70’s with depth and bite. Nice arm speed on change as well. Works quickly, and has a good idea of how to pitch. High level prospect on the mound."

Mike Sez (via Kendall): I've never trusted arms from Northern Virginia --- something about them coming down to UVA, they never seem to completely pan out. Shane Halley (Lake Braddock) could have been better. Slow-developing career. Ashooh (Centreville) hasn't done anything as a Hoo. Whit Mayberry appears to be the exception to this, but jury's out. The brand of baseball in Northern Virginia is just not as good as what you see in Richmond/757, so you get kids with inflated stats who were more coddled coming up (wealthy families, etc.) The state champion is NEVER from NOVA, the players just aren't as tough/gritty/good. With that being said, Sborz sounds like he might be pretty good. Let's hope he bucks the trend of mediocrity from those NOVA pitchers.

Washington-Lee HS Coach Doug Grove Sez: Sborz is the All-Met Player of the Year. We faced him last year. Throws 92-94 with a devastating breaking pitch.

College baseball scouting guru John Lezzi Sez: "Josh Sborz is a hard throwing RHP in the 90-92 MPH range, CB 74-76, CH 76-78. Smooth motion and a high leg kick, keeps his body tight. He throws 90 which immediately makes him draft-able but I think he can get even more velocity if he uses his legs more. He is another power arm that can come in and compete for a weekend spot right away. Played for the Canes Baseball organization. He is the #123 player in the country.

Kendall Sez: Along with Kirby and Lewicki, we'll need a third weekend starter.  That could be Whit Mayberry, returning from Tommy John surgery.  It could be Kyle Crockett.  Or it could be Josh Sborz.  Don't rule the freshman out, though Mike's observations about pitchers from Northern Virginia does give me some pause.


Scott Williams
Scott Williams, C -- 6-2, 195 / R-R / Conestoga, Berwyn PA:
"Tall angular build, some present strength with room for more. Very easy and loose actions behind the plate, plus raw arm strength, clean easy release, very accurate arm, 1.93 best pop but looks much faster, receives cleanly, can improve blocking skills. Right handed hitter, tall stance, loose and extended swing, moves through contact well, good balance, has some lift to his swing, can drive the gaps. Nice all around talent who projects well."

Mike Sez: "Pop" is the time from when the catcher catches the ball to when the man at second gets it. Pudge is the fastest i've seen and he's around a 1.7 pop time. MLB average is around 1.9 seconds. Scott Williams has a cannon. It will be interesting to see how that changes as he adds weight. If his footwork and glove transfer improve, it will cover that.  His [near MLB average] pop time is 1.93, and that's almost all from his arm.  Once he smoothes out his technique, he will be gunning down runners at 2nd on the regular.

From Rays Colored Glasses: "Williams is a high-upside player, but a player with significant risk. Williams has some nice tools. He has an uppercut swing that he uses to drive balls to the gaps and he has shown some nice raw power. However, his swing is pretty long, yielding strikeouts and pop-ups when he gets under the ball. Between the strikeouts, pop-ups and a lack of line drives, Williams won’t hit for a high average. He’s going to hit for a lot of power to be considered a good hitter. Thus far as a high school player, the power has come on and off. He better glue that switch to the on slot if he wants to be a high draft pick.

Defensively, Williams is very easy in his movements behind the plate, and he has an outstanding arm, able to hit 90 MPH off the mound. His throws are also very accurate. If that was the end of the scouting report, you could book Williams for a top 5 rounds pick. But unfortunately for him, it’s not. Williams needs a lot of work in his transfer from glove to hand on stolen base attempts. His great arm masks his problems in that area. Also, Williams needs to work on blocking balls in the dirt. As a bigger catcher, you have to worry a little bit about his trouble getting down. Williams has some defensive ability, but there are some real reasons for concern.

Evaluation: Williams has talent, but there are some significant questions with him. I think he’s looking like a 10th to 12th round pick, although his senior season in high school could radically change that. A more consistent season could jump Williams into the 5th to 7th round range; more instability could drop him as low as the 20th to 25th round range."


George Ragsdale
George Ragsdale, MIF -- 6-0, 175 / R-R / North Port HS, North Port FL:
"Strong well proportioned athletic build, bigger than listed. Right handed hitter, wide base with limited shift, very strong swing, calm balanced approach, simple and direct swing mechanics, very good bat speed, ball comes off the barrel hard, pull contact with some lift, ball carries well in the air. Big hitting tools with room to keep improving. 7.51 runner, clean infield actions, very soft hands, quick release, throws carry, likely third base in the future."

Mike Sez: Baseball does their running times in a 60 yard dash instead of football's standard 40 yard dash. 60 yards is how far it is to second base from home... if you ran perfect straight lines... and lost no momentum on turns. That being said, the fastest time ever at a Perfect Game camp actually belongs to Virginia's Mitchell Shifflett at 6.11 seconds. Ragsdale's 7.51 is not fast. It's not slow, but it's not game-changing speed. Bottom of the order kind of guy? Keith Werman type?

Kendall Sez: A lot of people are really high on Ragsdale, and I could see him getting some PT as a freshman at 3rd base, when/if Nick Howard is pitching.  Sounds like Ragsdale swings a good bat.


Cameron Tekker, RHP -- 6-3, 185 / R-R / Cuthbertson, Waxhaw NC:
"Nice pitcher's frame good strength potential. Busy multi-piece delivery, hands away from his body, some effort on release. Consistent 90-91 mph fastball, flat running action. Throws both a curveball and change up, curveball shows good depth with hard spin and bite, softer slider spin with occasional depth, tends to slow a bit on change but gets good life on the pitch. Around the plate with all pitches and was effective when mixing it up."


Robbie Coman, C -- 6-0, 205 / R-R / Park Vista, Lake Worth FL:
"C/1B/3B. Strong physical prospect, good hitting tools to work with, present strength, good bat speed, quick hands, aggressive, goes with the pitch well, ball really jumps off the bat, big arm strength behind the plate, quick transfer and release, online throws, soft hands, good receiver, very strong student. Named to Top Prospect Team."


David Rosenberger, LHP -- 6-0, 195 / L-L / Allentown Catholic, Bethlehem PA:
"Rosenberger has an athletic build, good delivery, smooth, arm works well, fastball has life, good pitchability, nice change up, maintains arm speed, good breaking ball, seen him up to 89 mph earlier in the summer."


Trey Oest, RHP -- 6-3, 205 / R-R / Durant HS, Dover FL:
"Solid athletic build, good present strength. Multi-part delivery, deep corkscrew action in back, over the top release point, falls off on release, has deception. Upper 80's fastball, topped at 89 mph, mostly straight. Good bite and spin on 12/6 curveball. Good command from the windup, inconsistent release point from the stretch. Has shown a workable change up in the past."


Joe McCarthy, OF -- 6-3 215 / L-L / Scranton HS, Scranton PA:
"McCarthy has a strong, mature, athletic build. Open stance at the plate, easy quick swing, can hit through ball more, aggressive swing, power potential is obvious and exciting. Solid arm strength in the outfield, good carry on ball, solid actions, outstanding speed for size."


Brandon Waddell, LHP -- 6-2, 155 / L-L / Clear Lake, Houston TX:
"LHP/1B. Long lean build, developing strength. On line delivery, good balance, loose actions, good extension out front, arm works well, finishes cleanly. Fastball to 85 mph, mostly straight, mid 70's slider shows good bite and depth. Throws inside well, has an idea how to pitch. Athletic actions defensively at first base. Smooth left handed swing, lacks strength for bat speed but nice swing, good balance and solid barrel. Very good chance to keep improving with added strength, follow closely. Outstanding student."


Tyler Carrico, RHP -- 5-11, 175 / R-R / James River, Midlothian VA:
"RHP/IF. Athletic build, body projects well. High 3/4 arm slot, clean and easy 2-piece arm action, arm works well, armside run on fastball, tight 12-6 curveball with good late life, will throw even harder with more polish in mechanics. Consistent solid contact at the plate, squares the ball up, gets extension out front, good barrel control. Strong arm in the field, accurate, clean actions, very solid. Outstanding student."

College baseball scouting guru John Lezzi Sez: "Carrico is a RHP that sits in the 86-88 range, good off speeds, fantastic student and a member of the Virginia Cardinals AAU program. Will be one of the many big pitchers on James River this year. A definite college guy that doesn't have much prospects of getting drafted, but he always has wanted to attend UVA. Was offered after a game on Davenport Field in front of O'Connor and committed on the spot. Probably a reliever in college."






That's it for our look at the 2012 recruiting class.

Stay tuned to this space for Part III -- Rosterbations and Expectations.  Coming soon...




6 comments:

  1. Great writeup. Great read. In point of fact, though, the Virginia AAA champion has come from Northern Virginia in two of the past three years, and in 2011 South County was 28-0 before being upset by Great Bridge in the state championship game. Not sure who "Mike" is, but he is way off about HS baseball in Northern Virginia!

    Lets not forget that Hultzen came from about 5 minutes outside of McLean. Its basically the same area. Doesnt seem like Danny was too coddled! Full disclosure, I am from Northern VA (obviously), but the idea that baseball players from up here are "soft" is ludicrous!

    Sborz went to the same high school as former UVA great Seth Greisinger. I got to see Josh pitch at McLean a few times and I expect HUGE things from him at UVA!

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    1. Great comments, Anonymous! Thanks a ton for reading!

      I love it when Mike's wrong about this kind of thing, so bonus points for pointing that out.

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  2. According to the VHSL website since 2000 only Oakton in 2000, Madison in 2002, West Springfield in 2010, and Lake Braddock this year have won. I played at Washington-Lee for 4 years (07-11) and that's the reputation the NOVA kids have, especially in the All-State meetings. It's just like football. The kids who can play more of the year are better than we are.

    Not saying the NOVA teams are bad, just that the southern teams are better and play a higher quality schedule which better prepares them for college.

    Also with respect to Danny the WCAC is a whole different ball game, and may actually be the reason the public school teams are weaker. That league is really good.

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  3. Seriously you are one year removed from playing at W-L and youre going to slam HS baseball in your own area? And be dead wrong about it? Just seems like kind of a punk thing to do.


    -The National district is the worst baseball district in the state, and quite possibly the mid-Atlantic. It is true that many aspiring baseball players who would attend one of the Arlington
    schools or JEB Stuart may opt for a WCAC school. The Liberty, Patriot, and Concorde are another story altogether. I think if you shared your opinion about high school baseball in NoVA with Oak, Mac or K's youd get laughed out of the room.

    -If you think Hultzen played in the WCAC, you probably dont need to be representing yourself as an expert of Virginia baseball or high school baseball in your "home" area. St Albans is in the IAC, not the WCAC. Doesnt matter because neither hold a candle to the Northern Region (excluding the National of course).

    -Your response summarizes 4 state titles for the Northern region in the past 13 years. There are four regions in Virginia. Is four since 2000 supposed to be bad?

    OK I am done sticking up for my backyard. No hostility intended here, just some honest observations coming from a Northern Virginian who is proud of the top quality baseball played up here (outside of Arlington County and Alexandria).

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    1. I think Mike goofed and listed his college years. He was in HS from 04-07, that's when he played at W-L.

      Also, I'd say WCAC > Northern Region, mostly subjective on that call though.

      Lastly, none of us on Wahooze try to represent ourselves as "experts." We're definitely more "punk" (your word) than expert, ha ha ha! That said, I do trust Mike's take on HS baseball in NOVA, which is why that take appears on my blog. He and his brother both played at W-L, and their time covers 04-11, 8 years of HS baseball. I stand behind Mike and what he writes. There was no ill will intended by his comments, merely a "wait and see" message attached to Josh Sborz (who some Virginia fans want to anoint as an immediate weekend starter -- myself included!)

      Thanks again for reading and commenting!

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  4. Kendall is right those are my college years.

    I appreciate your support for NoVa baseball. Believe me I don't think it's bad up there. Minus my old district, which I agree is terrible, and has gotten astronomically worse even since I left.

    My opinion is formed based on experiences I have had. My brother and I going through college recruiting cycles ran directly into this problem, and many others I know also have. It's not that people don't think they are good. It's just that the style of baseball is just different. You can attribute that to whatever you want but I don't think it's outlandish to think that. The success rate of even our best players is shaky at best. I played against Brandon Snyder so I know how good they can be, but when you look at how his brother's fared at Ole Miss you see what I am talking about. I don't think Coach Oak would laugh at me, in fact I would be interested to know what he thinks, since from what I know what I think is a fairly widely held opinion. I could be completely wrong about this though.

    I also think the WCAC is a much better conference than any of the Northern Region districts. Paul VI, at least when I was in school, was incredible. And Gonzaga, Good Counsel, St. Johns are good as well. Yes I made a mistake with the IAC vs. WCAC, my apologies.

    Kendall is right. I don't think Sborz is going to be bad. I just think, through my experiences and talking to people in baseball circles up where I grew up, that there is a reputation that comes with NoVa players. I depserately want them to succeed, a lot of which is so my roomate from Norfolk will shut up about how I didn't play real baseball.

    Regardless I appreciate you reading! I don't claim to be an expert on this by any stretch of the imagination, I'm just relaying what life has shown me.

    Out of curiousity did you play for one of the schools up there?

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