Duke Game. Thursday Night. 9pm. ESPN

This may shock a lot of people, but: I don't like Duke. At first glance, this is a pretty obvious reflection. No one likes Duke. Let me elaborate: I don't like Duke. I also don't hate Duke. I'm pretty much apathetic to the Blue Devils. I always root for any underdog that's playing them, but my unyielding hatred for basketball teams is already reserved for UNC, Maryland, (unfortunately, because they're good enough to hate) the Hokies, and Bruce Pearl. Heck, I'd probably root for Duke against most of the Big East (go UCONN). Now, I don't hold anything against Hoo fans that detest Duke - but my oldschool Hoo allegiance will not suffer any of this garbage "Welp I'll root for UNC because they're an ACC team and at least they aren't Duke" that I witnessed in my undergrad dormmates. When Duke wins championships, my reaction is more "boring" than the intolerable disgust that accompanies MD or UNC.

This all being said, I root against Duke when we play them as hard as anyone and the Wahoos have a HUGE game Thursday night in Durham. Here's how I see it all going down:

Why We're Going to Beat Duke:

Tony Believes. (Photo: virginiasports.com)

-Defense. UVA is 2nd in the COUNTRY in opponent's scoring average and 3rd in Defensive Efficiency. This is bordering on too-good-to-be-true remarkable. Keep Duke out of the lane, make their bigs receive the ball a couple steps farther from the basket. Only give up contested shots.

-We can make them play our pace. By relying on our aforementioned defense, the Hoos should be able to dictate the flow of the game, making Duke work for their shots, while methodically working the ball around on offense. Keep the game in the 50/60s and we could pull it out.

-Mike. Scott. Mike is having a spectacular season so far - nay, even a ACC POY type of season - but he's going to need a superhuman level of game tomorrow for the Hoos to leave Durham with an upset. Thankfully, he's Mike Mothereffin Scott.

-Outside shooting. Sammy Z has been kiiiiiiilllling lately from beyond the arc. He's up to 41.9% from 3 this season, while Joe Harris and Malcolm Brogdon are better than 35%. Duke is currently #193 in the country in 3pt% Defense (UVA is 9th fyi). If we can get Mike Scott going down low, these three shooters should find plenty of chances to score from outside.

-Duke is beatable. Yes, they still have all the talent in the world. Yes, they have one of the best coaches in the history of basketball. Yes, they barely ever lose at home. But, this isn't that great of a Duke team. The Blue Devils put away inferior opponents with ease, but every game they've had against decent competition has been close (or a loss). They don't defend that well and they lack the go-to senior guard to rely on when the going gets tough. I'd rather have Austin Rivers or Seth Curry try to find a shot under our pressure than Nolan Smith, John Scheyer, or even Greg Paulus.

Why We're Not Going to Beat Duke:

Tony is skeptical of my pessimism (Photo: virginiasports.com)

-The game's being played in Cameron Indoor.
-Joe Harris couldn't score at home against Miami.
-3 Plumlees might just be enough to equal one Mike Scott (this one is stretch though).
-Ryan Kelly is a big guy that shoots it well from 3, I think he'll get plenty of open looks.
-We still don't handle the press well. Coach K is bound to know this.
-We're not as consistent as we need to be. To beat Duke, we can't have a 6-8min scoring drought.
-Duke has much much more depth and talent on the bench than we do.

What I Think Will Happen

Last year, a much worse UVA team took it to a much better Duke team in Durham...for about a half. Though the Hoos have had their off days this season, I think Tony & Co will have them well prepared and motivated to give an A+ effort tonight. I really could see all the keys to the game going either way. While the potential for a corner-turned statement game announcing our return to basketball glory exists, when has UVA ever done that in a sport ESPN cares about? If it were at home, the Hoos might even be favored - but I don't think we'll shine in primetime quite yet. 78-62 Devils.