Stocking Stuffers

Bah humbug.

I'm not really a Christmas person.  Not like a Scrooge or a Grinch mind you, I'm just sort of neutral toward the Yule.  But for some reason, this year I'm totally excited about the holiday season.  Maybe it's the fact that for the first time in what seems like forever UVA has reason to celebrate a good football season in a New Years-ish bowl game, while at the same time there is real optimism surrounding the basketball team and its NCAA Tournament chances.  ('07 was similar, but didn't both the Chris Long-led football season and the Singletary-led basketball season both feel like fleeting moments of success, like smoke blowing past your face or sand slipping out of your fists?  This year's success in both sports feels more... permanent.)


Anyway, to celebrate the holidays, I'm going to try to post a series of blog entries with corny Christmas-themed titles.  We're starting with "Stocking Stuffers" because I have a bunch of ideas for posts, but none of these really grew and matured into stand-alone missives.  This is essentially me emptying my ideas notebook...

Chick-fil-A / Peach Bowl!
Just a few points I want to make on this:

1) This is the best / most prestigious bowl game Virginia has played in since the 1998 Peach Bowl.  Better than the two Tire Bowls, better than the 2007 Gator Bowl... at least in my opinion.

2) 8-4 is a damn good season.  It doesn't feel so great to me after the 38-0 thumping at the hands of VT, but consider the fact that our 8-4 is a better record than Texas, Ohio State, Florida, or Auburn could muster.

3) Speaking of Auburn, I think it's a pretty good matchup for us in Atlanta, and a great opportunity to really validate the season by beating an SEC team.  War Eagle is weak where we are strong, and I think we have a pretty good chance to beat those guys.  Vegas agrees, installing us as just a 1-point underdog against a vastly more-talented team forged from the hyper-athletic furnace of SEC play.

4) Just prior to this season starting, I dared to dream of going 6-6 and playing in the Military Bowl.  Perspective on the achievement of making it to the Peach Bowl, I guess.

Superman is back in 2012, but will the team take a half-step back?

Better Next Year?
2011 was a real breakthrough season, a turn-the-corner campaign.  8-4 with wins over Georgia Tech, Miami, and FSU... nobody doubts the progress that has been made in year two of the London regime.  I've been saying all along that 2012 will probably be a half-step back for the program, since so many important players are exhausting their eligibility in the Peach Bowl.  Will we really be taking that backstep?  Or is it possible that we'll actually improve even more?

Quarterback -- I'm a believer in Mike Rocco, and I'm really excited to see the progress he takes in his second year as a starter.  The presence of David Watford and Greyson Lambert means we have a full-flowing pipeline at the position.  I can't believe how quickly London and Lazor were able to repair this position.  No worries, only excitement about seeing Rocco evolve from a game manager into a playmaker in his junior season.  Better next year?  Yes, most definitely.

Running Back -- Perry Jones, Kevin Parks, Clifton Richardson, Khalek Shepherd, all are back.  Assuming normal progression for the three freshmen, this is a nasty quartet.  Nasty.  Better next year?  YES.

Fullback -- Converted tight end Zach Swanson and a couple of recruited walk-ons will take the reins here.  Gotta think it's regression from the pair of seniors we have now.  Better next year?  No.  Big drop-off.

Wide Receiver -- Kris Burd and Matt Snyder are gone.  Tim Smith steps into the #1, go-to role.  Darius Jennings and Dominique Terrell should improve and receive starter-level PT in 2012.   E.J. Scott is also lingering, awaiting an opportunity.  We have an army of big possession-type receivers (Miles Gooch, Kevin Royal, Bobby Smith, Thomas Wheet) cooking on the depth chart and coming in the 2012 class (Canaan Severin, Mario Nixon, Anthony Cooper, Kyle Dockins).  And if we miraculously land Stefon Diggs, look out.  Losing a true technician like Burd hurts, but I think this position might be improved via increased speed, athletic ability, size, and pure talent.  It has clearly been a position of emphasis in the recruiting effort, with tons of talent added to the program in just a couple of seasons.  Better next year?  Yes, no, maybe?  With Diggs, absolutely yes.  Without Diggs... I still think yes.  Big bodies with plus athleticism will be a welcome sight.

Tight End -- Phillips, Freedman, and Mathis are all back.  Jake McGee might be the best of the bunch, and I anticipate he'll get a crack at a major uptick in playing time in 2012.  Better next year?  Yes.  But will we use the tight ends more in the passing game?  Let's hope so.

Offensive Line -- The o-line is losing grizzly bear Austin Pasztor, who will be mauling fools in the NFL next season.  But the biggest loss might be center Anthony Mihota, who had a quietly excellent season in 2011.  Will Oday Aboushi and/or Morgan Moses go pro?  I'm thinking that is unlikely, but you never really know (see also: Zane Parr this time last year -- but Aboushi and Moses are both better pro prospects than Parr).  Cody Wallace will hopefully be ready to take over for Mihota at center, Luke Bowanko, Matt Mihalik, and Sean Cascarano are all back, and Kelby Johnson will probably be ready for more playing time.  The two-deep will include a lot of young guys we haven't seen before (Ross Burbank, Conner Davis, Jay Whitmire, Tim Cwalina), but the talent is in place for continued success along the offensive front.  This will be an exciting area to watch in the spring, as there will be a lot of great competition for starting jobs.  Better next year?  Probably not, but I'm hopeful for continued success.

Defensive Line -- Matt Conrath emerged as a major-impact player as a senior.  He will be missed.  Cam Johnson was always banged up, but was still our best pure pass rush threat, he will be difficult to replace.  Nick Jenkins is another multi-year starter who will leave a hole on the d-line.  But I'm not worried about this unit going into 2012.  Bill Schautz is ready to be a star rushing the passer, Jake Snyder offers a steady presence at end, Will Hill is a very good player who is ready to step right in, Brent Urban offers an intriguing size/strength combination, and Chris Brathwaite and Justin Renfrow are guys the coaches are really excited about.  Thompson Brown might be the biggest revelation of all --- I've heard Patrick Kerney and Chris Long comparisons made about him.  Plus, there is a TON of talent in the pipeline, with both the 2011 and 2012 classes loaded with d-line talent.  Diamonte Bailey, Rob Burns, Vincent Croce, Marco Jones, and David Dean will all be ready for some PT as redshirt freshmen.  And can the staff keep a transcendent pass rush talent like Eli Harold off of the field as a true freshman?  There is loads of talent along the defensive line as we move into 2012, and I actually think we'll see an improved pass rush next season.  Better next year?  Boldly, I will say yes.  The players stepping in are better fits on a 4-man front.  More explosive, better pass rushers.

Linebacker -- Steve Greer, LaRoy Reynolds, and Ausar Walcott.  BOOM, there's a solid starting trio, seasoned by extensive playing time over the last two seasons.  Aaron Taliaferro has really emerged as a senior, but his presence can be replaced.  The depth chart figures to be much deeper in 2012, with Tucker Windle, Henry Coley (who might start over Walcott on the strong side), and Daquan Romero joined by redshirt freshmen D.J Hill and Caleb Taylor.  Eli Harold might factor into the linebacker rotation.  And don't forget about Kwontie Moore -- no way he redshirts.  Better next year?  Yes.

Safety -- This is where I really start to get nervous.  For all of their faults, we will miss Corey Mosley's hits and Rodney McLeod's speed and sure tackling.  I have faith in Rijo Walker being able to adequately handle one starting spot at safety -- unless he moves back to corner, another question mark spot for 2012.  More questions: Can Ant Harris step up after flashing some ability as a true freshman?  Is LoVante Battle anything more than just a special teams guy?  Can Pablo Alvarez stay healthy?  What do we have in Kameron Mack, Darius Lee, Kyrrel Latimer, and Mason Thomas?  Will Anthony Cooper be slotted on defense and see some time as a true freshman?  Is Demeitre Brim a safety or a linebacker, and is he really as good as his "awakening sleeper" hype from this fall?  Lots of questions here.  The good news is that I just listed off a lot of names.  Expect a battle royale of epic proportions for these two starting spots during spring and summer practices.  Better next year?  No, and this could potentially be a disaster area if the right mix of players and playmakers don't bubble up to the surface.

Cornerback -- A Minnifield-sized hole is a big one to fill, and don't forget about jack-of-all-trades DB Dom Joseph graduating as well.  Tra Nicholson is small, but you can lock him in as a starter for 2012, 2013, and 2014.  Tra was pretty good this year, and should only get better and better.  Brandon Phelps has the pedigree to step in opposite Tra and make an impact.  But that's a young duo of starting corners, definitely cause for concern.  Drequan Hoskey seems poised to tackle an increased workload, and I think some true freshmen will factor into the rotation in the secondary -- Kelvin Rainey, C.J. Moore, and Wil Wahee all seem like long-term projects, but hopefully one (or more) of them will surprise.  Better next year?  No, and frankly I'm worried about the lack of experience and lack of depth at corner.

Kicker/Punter -- Adios Jimmy Howell, Robert Randolph, and Chris Hinkebein!  I'm ready for the Ian Frye / Alec Vozenilek era to begin.  Better next year?  It's not hard to top mediocrity.

Schedule -- Idaho, Southern Miss, William & Mary, Indiana, and Florida State are off the schedule next year.  Penn State, TCU, Richmond, Louisiana Tech, and Wake Forest are on.  We play on the road at Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.  Next year's schedule looks slightly tougher than this year's.

Overall -- I'm feeling good.  Lack of experience in the trenches along with too many question marks in the secondary give me some pause, but I think 6-8 wins is entirely possible.  Will we be better next year than we are this year?  I doubt it.  But there's no reason we can't be just about as good and sustain this level of success.

REALIGNMAGEDDON Review, Winners and Losers

ACC: Adding Pitt and Syracuse, not losing anyone.

SEC: Adding Missouri and Texas A&M, not losing anyone.

B1G: Holding pattern after adding Nebraska last year... perhaps waiting for Notre Dame?

Pac-12: Nixed plans to add a bunch of Texas/Oklahoma schools.  Happy (for now) at 12?

Big XII: Made bold moves to replace Mizzou and A&M with TCU and West Virginia.  Eyeballing Louisville and BYU.

Big East: Lost WVU, Pitt, and Syracuse, and was ditched at the altar by TCU.  Now scrambling to replace those schools - and potentially eventually Louisville and UConn - with Boise State (football only), San Diego State (football only), UCF, Houston, and SMU, and maybe Navy (football only) and Temple or ECU.

Mountain West and C-USA: Considering a merger to salvage some shred of relevancy.


WINNERS:

• The ACC -- Found stability in the face of potential poaching from the SEC or B1G, improved the basketball product, laid a nice bed of roses for Notre Dame.
• The SEC -- Expanded college football's most powerful brand into [huge] new markets, while adding two pretty good football programs to the mix.
• Big East -- That's right, I said winner.  They could have flown the white flag and allowed themselves to collapse.  But instead, they made the surprisingly brave moves to replace the departed schools and expand in an attempt to solidify.  Boise, SDSU, and the Texas schools aren't exactly "East," but it does create a weird, interesting, sprawling football conference that just might work.  At least the conference didn't just lay down and die, and I respect that.
• Notre Dame -- If it comes to pass that the Irish need to abandon their independent status, they will have some fantastic options for conference affiliation.
• TCU -- Finally included in the Big XII, where they should have been all along.

LOSERS:

• B1G -- I think Missouri was a great fit for the Big 10.  They missed the boat on that one, letting the Tigers slip away to the arch-rival SEC.
• Pac-12 -- Had a chance to add Oklahoma and failed to capitalize.  I think they will eventually kick themselves over that one, as there really aren't very many decent options for further expansion on the West Coast.
• Big XII -- It's almost a wash, but not quite.  Mizzou/A&M > TCU/WVU.  Why no interest in Houston?  Why no strong move to add Louisville?  Is BYU going to be invited to the party? I just feel like the Big XII is constantly on the defensive, never being proactive in trying to gobble up the right schools and find some long-term stability.  With Texas and Oklahoma at the heart of the conference, this league should be dictating its moves to others, not being victimized by poachers.
• Big East basketball -- Much more worse for wear.  Lost three good basketball schools and replaced them with a whole lot of nothin'.  Can't wait to see the USF vs. SMU basketball game.  Should be a real barnburner.
• Rutgers -- A year ago, they were a potential Big 10 target.  Then they were a potential ACC target.  Now?  Seemingly stuck in the volatile science experiment that is the New Big East.  Nobody wants the Scarlet Knights.
• Boise State -- Gotta think the Mountain West with Utah and TCU was a more attractive conference for Boise than this weird new East Coast-based amalgam they've just joined.
• Merged MWC/C-USA -- It would be a big conference, but without a powerhouse football program in the mix.  Southern Miss, ECU, Tulsa, and Air Force come the closest.  That's not moving the needle much from the perspective of national respect.  Get bigger like a bloated lead balloon.
• "The best of the rest."  The following good-football schools are currently left outside one of the six football power conferences: BYU, Southern Miss, ECU, Tulsa, Air Force, Florida International (they're coming up fast, mark my words), Nevada, and Fresno.  Why don't these eight clump together along with a few other "bright future" programs and forge a 7th power conference?  Take control of your own destinies, guys.

Welcome back, Pirate King!

The Coaching Carousel

It's a really interesting one this year!  Let's take a quick look at the BCS conference turnover...

Urban Meyer to Ohio State -- Seriously?  Did you fix your health and spend all the time you wanted with your family in the nine months you were away?  I hate OSU, and I hate Urban Meyer.  This is an unholy union of evil, and I don't like it.  I wish failure and pain upon all involved.

Mike Leach to Washington State -- I love it.  His off-field controversy won't be a big deal in college football's version of Siberia.  The passing offense he'll craft at Wazzu will be so awesome to watch against the crummy defenses of the Pac-12.  Can't wait.  I now have a new second favorite college football team.

Rich Rodriguez to Arizona -- Dude's a scumbag, and he failed miserably in the smoldering crucible of Michigan football.  I think he'll find West Virginia levels of success at 'Zona, away from some of those intense spotlights and free from so much pressure.  Could be fun to see unfold.  (I know I would be excited if I were a 'Zona fan.)

Charlie Weis to Kansas -- I could see it work.  Much easier to meet expectations at KU than at ND.

Hugh Freeze to Ole Miss -- I think this is a HUGE gamble for the Rebs.  Freeze had a great year at Arkansas State, but it's just one year.  He's coached at Ole Miss in the past, so it makes sense in the same kind of way it made sense for Virginia to hire Mike London.  But still, big risk on a relative no-name with a very limited track record.  The SEC will grind you down quick.

Larry Fedora to North Carolina -- I'm glad it wasn't Kevin Sumlin or Gus Malzahn, but Fedora is almost as scary.  He's a quality coach who runs a hyper-aggressive system.  From Wiki: "He promised to implement an aggressive, attacking philosophy on both sides of the ball, with the same wide-open spread offense he implemented at Southern Miss and a blitz-heavy defense. He summed up his philosophy with a quote from George S. Patton --"Instead of waiting to see what might develop, attack constantly, vigorously and viciously. Never let up, never stop, always attack."  See?  Scary.  Not sure if he can recruit this region, but he can sell an interesting bill of goods, tossing around those kinds of quotes.

Kevin Sumlin to Texas A&M -- Perfect guy to re-make the A&M brand as the school transitions into the SEC.  Young, cool, sexy.  I bet he'll succeed in this job.

Jim Mora Jr. to UCLA -- God I love this.  I love the Mora family, though Junior is a bit douchey.  The Pac-12 is stockpiling some awesome coaches.  Too bad June Jones-to-ASU fell through...

Tim Beckman to Illinois -- Underwhelming.  Why can't the Illini attract a decent coach?

??? to Penn State -- Despite the giant mess in Happy Valley, this is still an attractive job for the right coach.  A few years for the controversy to blow over, and the Penn State job is a marquee gig once again.  It seems to me like the Nits might need to go the cheap/safe route for now, to find a guy to usher the program through this disaster and then give way to a bigger name once the time comes.  However, the current lead candidate seems to be Dan Mullen, who is no stopgap option.  Interesting situation at Penn State right now.  Is it the right time to swing for the fences?  If I were in charge of this hire, I'd be looking at the most vanilla candidates possible, in an effort to totally minimize risk.

??? to Arizona State -- June Jones was a done deal... until he wasn't.  What happened?  And what's next?  The candidates list for the Sun Devils include ex-USF coach Jim Leavitt, Tennessee defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox, and Washington offensive line coach Dan Cozzetto.  Jesus.  What a disaster.  What is Mike Bellotti and Randy Shannon doing these days?




Okay, I know that was a lot.  Much more than mere "stocking stuffers."  Feliz Navidad, bitches.