Slicing the 200 Minute Pie, Part II

Back on April 4th (not a month after the conclusion of the 2009-10 season) I posted THIS:

Here's my guess at how the 200 minutes per game will be distributed next year. (2009-10 minutes per game average in parentheses.)


Mike Scott (27.4) -- 30 minutes per game in 2010-11
Sam Zeglinski (29.0) -- 25
Mustapha Farrakhan (21.0) -- 20
Jeff Jones (18.3) -- 20
K.T. Harrell (Fr.) -- 18
James Johnson (Fr.) -- 15
Jontel Evans (16.5) -- 15
Assane Sene (12.6) -- 13
Billy Baron (Fr.) -- 12
Joe Harris (Fr.) -- 12
Will Regan (Fr.) -- 10
Will Sherrill (15.4) -- 10
Akil Mitchell (Fr.) -- redshirt

Thoughts generated by this exercise:
-- It probably won't be this way at the beginning of the season, but the five players I expect to see starting the majority of the games are Evans / Zeglinski / Harrell / Scott / Sene.
-- I think Will Sherrill will cede minutes to Will Regan. The two are very similar players, except Regan is more athletic and has more upside.
-- James Johnson needs to be able to assert himself in the low post early and often.
-- Farrakhan and Jones coming off of the bench together could be a wonderful way to push the tempo and manufacture scoring bursts.
-- Jontel Evans vs. Billy Baron will be a very interesting battle. One of those two guys will run the point... but I fully expect to see Sammy slide into that role in crunch time until/unless Evans develops a somewhat reliable shooting stroke.
-- There will be a lot of pressure on K.T. Harrell to assume a big chunk of Sylven Landesberg's vacated scoring. It will be interesting to see how the youngster responds.
-- I think Joe Harris will play an important role on next year's team: sniper.
-- I still have high hopes for Assane Sene. He's never going to be a scoring threat, but if he can "get it" as a pack line defender, our overall team defense could be really tough. Having a shot blocker on the floor can really allow the pack-line to flourish.
-- I don't actually expect to see a 12-man rotation next season. Coach Bennett will find an 8- or 9-man rotation that works, and then will stick with that. Of the 12 players I gave minutes to above, the three most likely to be excluded from the rotation are Will Regan, Will Sherrill, and Assane Sene.
-- A three-guard look is almost a certainty. But with the makeup of this roster, we could be looking at some heavy doses of a Marquette-esque four guard look. Can Mike Scott handle the pivot in such a system? I have my doubts.
-- No matter what, next year should be fun. I love watching freshman receive their baptism by fire in the ACC, and we'll be seeing that big time next season.

 
 
Of course, Jeff Jones left the program and Sammy Zeglinski went down with an injury that will hold him out for the first four or five weeks of the regular season, but otherwise I stand by most of what I said six months ago.  I have to re-slice that pie, though.  Here goes...
 
(2009-10 minutes per game average in parentheses) [April's guess in brackets] My new guess in BOLD


Mike Scott (27.4) [30] -- 31
Sammy Zeglinski (29.0) [25] -- 0
Mustapha Farrakhan (21.0) [20] -- 27
Jeff Jones (18.3) [20] -- 0, obviously
K.T. Harrell (Fr.) [18] -- 30
James Johnson (Fr.) [15] -- 22
Jontel Evans (16.5) [15] -- 22
Assane Sene (12.6) [13] -- 15
Billy Baron (Fr.) [12] -- 16
Joe Harris (Fr.) [12] -- 10
Will Regan (Fr.) [10] -- 6
Will Sherrill (15.4) [10] -- 6
Akil Mitchell (Fr.) [redshirt] -- 15

Thoughts generated by this exercise:

• My expectations for Mustapha Farrakhan, James Johnson, Jontel Evans, Assane Sene, Billy Baron, and especially K.T. Harrell and Akil Mitchell have risen dramatically over the course of the last six months.
• I think I've nailed the frontcourt rotation here.  Scott and Johnson will combine for 50+ minutes of the 200 minute pie, while Mitchell, Sene, Sherrill, and Regan will fight over the 30 minutes worth of scraps.
• One of Billy Baron or Joe Harris MUST step up in the backcourt, or the team will struggle to survive Zeglinski's absence at the beginning of the season.
• Who will cede minutes when Sammy returns?  I think Mu gives up 4, Harrell 2, Evans 2, Baron 4, Harris 2, and Mitchell 3.  That gives Zeglinski 17 minutes... enough to tiptoe back into action but not enough to disrupt whatever rhythm has developed in the backcourt.
• I took a cowardly approach by predicting Will Sherrill and Will Regan receiving matching 6 minute burns.  I actually think it will look more like Sherrill at 10 minutes and Regan at 2, but will slowly swing the other direction as the season drags along.  Regan has more ability than Sherrill, and as he "gets it," he'll start to steadily eat into Sherrill's minutes.
• In so many ways, Akil Mitchell is the x-factor for this team.  The 15 minutes I project could be waaaaaay too many.  But I've got a gut feeling about this kid.  In fact, toward the end of the season I think the 'primary' lineup will look more like Zeglinski/Harrell/Mitchell/Scott/Johnson. If Mitchell forces his way into the regular rotation early in the season, it will be a good thing for the team because he brings unmatched athleticism into the game.
• If Jontel Evans really has developed a semi-reliable jumper, these 22 minutes I project are way too low.  But how often do you see a player go from having no shot whatsoever to being able to hit on a consistent basis?  I guess I have a subconscious doubt about Evans' ultimate viability at point guard.
• It's too bad Jeff Jones felt the need to transfer for his senior season.  We could really use him this year.
• Joe Harris has a golden opportunity to carve out a specific role on this team.  I don't think he'll play much this year, but when he's in the game my eyes will be glued on him.  If he really can be the designated sniper, it bodes extremely well for his UVA career.

This Saturday's exhibition against Roanoke College will answer many of these questions.  I'll be there, and will provide a full report on Wahooze.  I can't wait!  Basketball season is here!

GO HOOS!