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November 4, 2010

Trifecta Box: Power Forwards

If I'm betting a trifecta box on UVA's power forward position this basketball season, here's how I'd structure the bet...


Is Mike Scott ready to be "the man" for the Hoos as a senior?


WIN: Mike Scott, senior
12.0 points and 7.2 rebounds in 27.4 minutes on the floor.  Those were Mike Scott's averages during the 2009-10 season, one in which he rode a veritable roller coaster of ups and downs.  Most of his struggles came on the defensive end, where he tended to have trouble knowing and understanding his role in the pack-line.  He also had some hiccups on the offensive end, where he tended to settle for too many jump shots and was an inconsistent finisher around the rim (the bricked breakaway dunk against Virginia Tech immediately comes to mind).  So why are so many people heaping so much hope on this guy to emerge as Virginia's star player this season?  I think the reason is pretty simple --- In his flashes of good play, he has been truly GREAT, and the talk surrounding him is that he's stepped up his game several notches, improved defensively, and has stepped up his role as a vocal leader on the team.  We're going to need his rebounding and low post scoring this season, and we're going to need those things to be reliable, game in and game out.  With a roster mostly in flux, Mike Scott is the one player with a chance to serve a stabilizing role.  When he's on, he's an above-average rebounder, an above-average scorer, and a presence on the defensive end.  I'm expecting big things from Scott this season.  15.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 32.0 minutes per game.  Book it.

PLACE: Will Sherrill, senior
He's a walk-on, and he is what he is --- a high-effort guy who will set hard screens and play hard on defense.  Sherrill isn't the kind of guy who can put his back to the basket and operate on the blocks, he's more of a face-up 4 man who can fade out to the perimeter and knock down the occasional jump shot.  I'm not going to spend a lot of time on him, because you all saw him play last year, and what you see is what you get.  He's a solid player who tends to get eaten alive by bigger, stronger, and more athletic forwards.  But he's a hustle guy who can provide five fouls, a handful of nice screens, and a big body in the lane, along with an occasional 3-bomb.

SHOW: Will Regan, freshman
He's described as a "glue guy," which is often a nice way of saying "an undertalented big man who will work hard."  But I think Regan is more than that.  For one, he is said to be a rebounding specialist.  That's definitely something we need on this team, especially with Jerome Meyinsse graduated.  Second, scouts claim that he has a nice ability to put the ball on the floor and attack the basket, and the requisite jumper to keep defenders honest.  He sounds a lot like Will Sherrill, but I don't think their skill sets are totally redundant.  If Regan can offer up a more athletic, better-rebounding version of Sherrill, then I think he'll be able to provide some positives and be able to make an occasional impact as a freshman.

ALSO RAN:
  • James Johnson, freshman -- I have this guy penciled in at center, but there could be times when he plays the 4 with Assane Sene on the floor alongside him.  Johnson is probably our second-best post player behind Mike Scott, so expect to see him in action quite a lot this season.
  • Akil Mitchell, freshman -- He's a 3/4 hybrid, but I'm personally hoping he develops into more of a true 4, because he has plus athleticism for the position.  I think he's a big x-factor for our frontcourt this season, as I can envision a world in which Mitchell establishes himself in the rotation ahead of both Sherrill and Regan.

ANTE POST: I've always been a Mike Scott fan, as I think he's got the complete package at the 4 when he's at the top of his game.  Sometimes his most important trait is the ability to knock down free throws (71.9% last year), so when he's tuned in and active, he can get opposing bigs in foul trouble and make them pay at the stripe.  I don't like weighing players down with expectations, but I'm expecting a lot from Mike Scott this season.  Behind him, I'm less enamored with Will Sherrill, and am hoping that Regan and Mitchell force their way onto the floor and start eating into his minutes.  I think at least one of those two freshman will emerge as a reliable presence at the 4.  And one thing can certainly be said for Sherrill, Regan, and Mitchell -- they won't be outworked.  I like the way our power forward rotation sets up for this season, especially if Scott can handle 30+ minutes per game.

Position Grade: B-

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