On the eve of the Nike-sponsored Oregon invasion of Scott Stadium, and still looking back at the wet, wild, and wonderful win over the Fightin' Polygamists in week 1, I thought it might be coolio to offer some context for the two specific games. Below are my rankings on the degree of difficulty of our 12 games this season, listed in order from easiest game to most difficult.
12th-Most Difficult Game: Sept. 21 vs. VMI
Chance of a Virginia Win: 99.99%
I won't give us 100% chance of winning this game, because I've been a Virginia fan for too long to think there's ever any such thing as a gimme.
11th-Most Difficult Game: Oct. 19 vs. Duke
Chance of a Virginia Win: 78%
I'm feeling confident about this one this season, even though Duke has had our number recently. (Ugggggghhhhhh, Duke has had our number recently.)
10th-Most Difficult Game: Oct. 5 vs. Ball State
Chance of a Virginia Win: 65%
Ball State is quality, but we need to win this kind of game at home if we're serious about saying Mike London is not on the hot seat. A head coach can't lose this game in Year Four without losing his job, in my very humble opinion. So I feign confidence.
9th-Most Difficult Game: Oct. 12 @ Maryland
Chance of a Virginia Win: 50%
Just out of pure hatred and spite, I say we roll into College Park and lay waste to that shithole.
8th-Most Difficult Game: Sept. 28 @ Pittsburgh
Chance of a Virginia Win: 45%
I'm feeling much more confident about this game after seeing them play against FSU. I was not impressed, not even early when they were looking good. It's a winnable game for UVA, is all I'm saying.
7th-Most Difficult Game: Aug. 31 vs. BYU
Chance of a Virginia Win: 40%
We got this one already, but I wasn't confident in it even being a coin-toss type of game. Glad I was wrong, but we need to win at least one more of these (and avoid shitting the bed against a lesser opponent) to go to a bowl game this year.
6th-Most Difficult Game: Oct. 26 vs. Georgia Tech
Chance of a Virginia Win: 35%
Revenge could play a factor, as could having that sixth win clearly in the sights. The timing of the game works in our favor, but we'll still be home 'dogs in Vegas.
5th-Most Difficult Game: Nov. 30 vs. Virginia Tech
Chance of a Virginia Win: 33.33%
I'll believe that we can beat Tech when I see it, but this season figures to be our best chance in quite a while. We'll see.
4th-Most Difficult Game: Nov. 9th @ North Carolina
Chance of a Virginia Win: 25%
We can move the ball against their defense, but can we stop their offense?
3rd-Most Difficult Game: Nov. 23 @ Miami
Chance of a Virginia Win: 20%
This is 20% and not 7% only because we sort of own them right now.
2nd-Most Difficult Game: Nov. 2 vs. Clemson
Chance of a Virginia Win: 2%
We will get drubbed. Don't kid yourself, we will get drubbed.
Most Difficult Game: Sept. 7 vs. Oregon
Chance of a Virginia Win: 00.01%
Oregon : Virginia :: Virginia : VMI
Just for craps and laughs, I used a random number generator to tell me if we win or lose each game based on my percentages. Here's how our season plays out:
BYU - W
Oregon - L
VMI - W
@ Pitt - L
Ball St. - W
@ UMD - W
Duke - W
GT - L
Clemson - L
@ UNC - L
@ Miami - W
VT - L
6-6, I will take it!
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