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January 26, 2013

ACC / Big XII Alliance?

Sounds like an almost-too-good-to-be-true possibility.

Clickedy-doo:

Big 12 Exploring Alliance with ACC





Meanwhile, we're hearing that Penn State has backed out of their 2013 game against us, and that we're moving to fill that hole in the schedule with a "big-time" opponent.  Meanwhile, UVA is working on establishing a home-and-home series against Alabama, to possibly begin as early as 2014.

Yep, that's right.  I just said Alabama.

Alabama.



Last piece of scuttlebutt: UVA is working behind the scenes to position itself for an invitation to join the SEC, should the ACC crumble.  Word is, the SEC likes the idea.  A lot.



Stay tuned.


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But for the record:

1) I absolutely LOVE the idea of an ACC/Big XII partnership.  That could really help both conferences stabilize themselves, and could set up some awesome matchups.

2) Screw you, Penn State.  Pansies.

3) Playing Alabama is a stupid, short-sighted money grab.  But maybe it'll force us to raise our level of play?  And maybe recruits will like seeing us strive for these insanely difficult out-of-conference schedules?

4) My preference is to stay put in a strong ACC.  If that's not viable, I'd love to see us move to the SEC.  The BigTen is a fine golden parachute, though I admit I'd have a hard time getting excited about it.  Worst case scenario is we end up stuck in a bombed-out ACC.



January 25, 2013

Marching...



Great win last night.

We're now up to #114 in the RPI.

Our remaining schedule:
  • BC (#131) 
  • NCSU (#17) 
  • @ GT (#135) 
  • Clemson (#150) 
  • @ Maryland (#64) 
  • VT (#139) 
  • @ UNC (#35) 
  • @ Miami (#3) 
  • GT (#135) 
  • Duke (#1) 
  • @ BC (#131) 
  • @ FSU (#73) 
  • Maryland (#64)

Beating the six teams below us in RPI puts us at 19-12 (9-9 ACC). That does not earn an NCAA Tournament bid. So we need to win at least two of the other games, and probably three if we want to safely be a tournament team.

We all know we'll drop at least one of those six "gimme" games. So we need to win four of the seven tougher games. I'd rank our chances in descending order of probability:
  • Maryland 
  • NCSU 
  • @ Maryland 
  • @ UNC 
  • @ FSU 
  • @ Miami 
  • Duke (Sorry, just don't see us beating them this season.)

Can we take four of those seven? Three?

Let's say we go 5-1 in the "gimme" games and 3-4 in the "tough" games, then we'd be 21-10 (11-7 ACC). I think that's possible, and definitely our most likely path into the Tournament... but off the bubble and after sweating out a very nervous Selection Sunday.

My advice to UVA basketball fans right now is this: Enjoy the ride for what it's worth.  Recognize our fatal flaws, which is shoddy point guard play and not enough beef down low.  Enjoy the upsets we are certain to spring down the stretch this season, and try not to sweat the disastrous losses.  Embrace an NIT bid, if that's where we end up --- that's a great achievement for such a young team, and would set the table for what could be a truly special 2013-14 season.

January 15, 2013

The Truth Hurts

Andy Glockner's Bubble Watch:

"Virginia was excluded last week due to an RPI in the 120s and then lost at both Wake Forest and Clemson this week to drop to No. 155. Despite some solid wins and a team that's much better than that on paper, they are not a viable at-large discussion at this point."

Yeeeee-owwwwch.



UVAMBB Power Rankings -- 1/15/13



Previous editions:


At regular intervals during basketball season, I will unveil the power rankings for all of the players on the basketball team. This is essentially a relative measure of how they've been performing in recent games, coupled with an in-order listing of each player's value to the team moving forward with the season. On with it...

#1 Joe Harris (previous rank: #1)
He's not a guy who can single-handedly carry a team, and he sometimes struggles to create his own shot or knock down the big one when we really, really need it, but Joe's still our best player and biggest asset.  He leads the team, playing over 30 minutes per game, and hasn't failed to score in double-digits since the walk over Mississippi Valley State on December 8th.  I'm tempted to say we need more from Joe, but he's turning in a very good season, and seems to be playing all the way up to his ceiling.  Haters like to say that he's more Robin than Batman, but I think he's mostly Blue Beetle.

#2 Akil Mitchell (previous rank: #2)
He's still averaging close to a double-double, but an ankle injury has really wicked away his effectiveness of late.  He needs his explosive movement abilities in order to hold his own in the post, and he's lacked that so far in 2013.  Still, Big Fundamental is not the reason we're losing games right now.  His tenacity and grit are indispensable.

#3 Evan Nolte (previous rank: #7)
With Darion Atkins battling shin splints and playing like a shell of the player we saw early this season, Nolte leapfrogs all the way up to #3.  My reason is pretty simple: Nolte is a shot-maker, on a team that desperately needs to see shots being made.

#4 Mike Tobey (previous rank: #8)
Did you see his game against Wake Forest?  6-for-9 from the field, 14 points, 7 rebounds, and serious flashes of greatness.  That was in 21 minutes of work, subbing in for a hobbled Darion Atkins.  It was very encouraging to see (despite the ugly loss in Winston-Salem).  Tobes is developing right before our eyes...

It's the mask.

#5 Darion Atkins (previous rank: #3)
Hopefully he'll heal up during this week off, because we need him desperately, especially on defense where we seem to currently be powerless against big guys posting us up.  Devin Booker ate us alive on the low block on Saturday, and Devin Booker... isn't the world's best big man, let's just leave it at that.  Get better soon, Darion.  We need you.

#6 Paul Jesperson (previous rank: #6)
When we're winning, I'll happily say Jespy is our "glue guy," doing a little bit of anything/everything to help us win.  But when we're losing, I'll say this: Jespy is "just a guy" out there.  A shooter who doesn't (can't?) shoot, a guard with limited handle or ability to dribble-drive, and a liability on offense due to his limited tools.  He's still playing good-enough defense and his length can bother shooters, but he's giving up too much dribble penetration because his feet are simply slower than the shooting guards he's been facing.  (He really needs to be defending smaller 3s, not 2s.)

#7 Justin Anderson (previous rank: #5)
I'm back to being a little bit sour on J.A.  To me, he looks like an A+ athlete but a D+ basketball player.  Great raw ability, he's like a SG/SF version of Akil Mitchell's SF/PF freshman self.  The staff will develop Anderson into a good player, but it ain't happening this season.  As it is now, his mistakes and poor shooting far outweigh any contributions he makes in the energy / hustle departments.  Bennettball demands control, and that's something Anderson woefully lacks.

#8 Teven Jones (previous rank: #4)
I like Teven much more than this #8 ranking, but he must have found his way into Tony's doghouse again.  There's no other way to explain his 25 minutes in the losses at Wake and Clemson compared to Jontel Evans' 57 minutes in those games.  Evans played HORRENDOUS basketball in those two games, so why didn't Jones play more?  (He stepped up and drilled a pair of big 3-pointers against UNC, and a point guard who could shoot was seriously a sight for sore eyes.)

Hey Tony... less Evans, more Jones... please.

#9 Jontel Evans (previous rank: #9)
I don't buy the idea that he's "rusty."  I do buy the idea that he's just not a very good basketball player.  The guy can't shoot, can't make free throws, can't take care of the basketball, can't create offense for his teammates, can't get to the hole and score on a consistent basis, and can't make any sort of discernible impact defensively.  I hope I'm wrong and it's just rust or some kind of mini-slump, but I have zero faith in Jontel Evans right now.  I pin these two ACC losses directly on him (and dismal point guard play, in general.)  Devon Hall and London Perrantes can't get here soon enough.

#10 Taylor Barnette (previous rank: #10)
It's harsh, but I'm ready to say it: This was a wasted scholarship.  Him transferring after the season is the best possible outcome for him and the program, else he'll sit on the bench for three more seasons, eating up a scholarship that could otherwise be used on someone who could help the team win.  When a so-called "shooter" can't get some time in these last two games when we were absolutely starving for made shots...  Ugh.  I don't want to keep saying mean things about Barnette, who I'm sure is a nice enough kid, so this will be the last time I include him in these power rankings.

#11 Doug Browman (previous rank: #11)
Browman hasn't played in 2013, so he's no longer part of the power rankings, either.


We're at 11-5 overall, 1-2 in the ACC, #154 in the RPI, and #52 in the Pomeroy Rankings.  We're on the outside looking in, nowhere close to the bubble.  That's what back-to-back losses to ACC bottom-feeders can do for you.  Right now, Hoofans need to be focused on a few things for the remainder of this season:

1) Continued development for the young guys, specifically Nolte, Anderson, and especially Tobey.  We need two above-average starters to emerge from that trio of players.

2) Maintaining a record above .500 so we'll have a solid NIT candidacy at season's end.

3) Imagine this team, minus Jontel Evans, plus Malcolm Brogdon, plus uber-transfer stretch-4 Anthony Gill, plus stud point guard recruit Devon Hall, plus darkhorse point guard recruit London Perrantes.  2013-14 figures to be pretty special.  We just need to see zero career-interrupting injuries to Joe, Akil, or Darion.

4) Set or define your patience level with Tony Bennett and his program.  This is Year Four.  What do you expect to see moving forward, and in what kind of time frame do you need to see it?  I'm not suggesting Bennett should be sitting on a hot seat... but I am suggesting that the results need to start appearing here pretty soon.  That blowout against Florida in the first round of last year's NCAA Tournament didn't do a whole lot to sate my appetite for March Madness, that's all I'm saying.  Yes, I know that this year's team is extremely young (four freshmen and two sophomores in the top nine players), but "wait 'til next year" is not young.  It is getting very, very old.



January 12, 2013

Notes Following a Couple Losses

There's little need to format this post in paragraphs while I watch Milton Jennings bank in multiple threes against our pathetic basketball team... so here's a list of my thoughts (some from a twitter conversation with Kendall) following this crapshow at Clemson and Wednesday's just-as-embarrassing loss at Wake Forest:

- Can't blame the refs, but they sure didn't help: Not including fouling at the end of the game, UVA has shot 8 free throws. Clemson? 23.

- A lot of that comes from getting abused in the paint all day. Atkins and Mitchell were both gimpy and Tobey just doesn't have the weight to deal with the likes of whichever Booker brother it was who beat us this year.

- The heart of most of our issues, which pops up much more on the road: the team is completely passive. Is Tony coaching them to play as such? I can't imagine it, but it seems like the only plausible explanation. Scared to shoot. Missing lay ups. Getting blocked at every turn in the paint. Throwing the ball at people's feet or out of bounds. Passive and stupid basketball: the theme of this week's games.

- Playing without a decent point guard can cause a lot of that passive play. Jontel had a decent game against UNC, but has otherwise been abysmal - stupid mistakes, no ability to shoot it, poor passes. Teven Jones, who at times had played like an ACC-level player, has been completely outclassed so far in conference play. Brogdon's injury has been really damning to this team - but they've had a year to prepare/adjust. A year.

- Defense? Bennettball? Clemson shot 51%. Wake at least only managed 40%. At times, the defense has been dominating. Look no further than keeping Wake without a FG for the last 10 minutes of the game. But it hasn't been enough. When your team can't run a pick and roll without traveling or throwing it away, you need to smother teams for 40 minutes a game. Isn't that why we give up on trying to offensively rebound?

- One of the more annoying aspects of this pitiful week is the level of competition. Clemson and Wake aren't just bad teams, they're horrendous teams. The ACC outside of a couple teams is just abysmal this year - and we can't take advantage of it, because we're abysmal too.

- It's also a shame that the basketball team can't alleviate any of the pain brought on by the pathetic football season. Frankly, many of the same complaints and uncertainties exist about both programs... yeah it's not quite as bad as football - but could it get there?

- It's too early to think past the rest of the season, obviously. But boy does there not seem to be anything but mediocrity in our near future. Next year? Devon Hall and London Perrantes both add actual talent to the 1 position, plus we only lose Jontel. I'm sure we'll have our hopes up...

- Duke lost. Haha. But I hate seeing Mike Gottfried happy about anything. It's a wash.


January 8, 2013

Wahooze Pix - 2012 Results

Dudes and dudettes,

After weeks (months?) of waiting, we're finally done with the 2012 bowl season. Boy, wasn't that a great game last night? Brent Musburger's on-air bonerjam was disturbing, but not as much as the Irish's tackling (ACC! ACC!).


Finally, some B button action in real life

 A four-team playoff may not be enough, but at least we wont end up with a travesty like that again. Before I get to the final results/standings of our season-long pick'em, let me share some musings after the bowls:

  • Louisville is clearly the best team in the new ACC. 

  • How hilariously inept was Northern Illinois? Yeah I know they were without their head coach, but good lord, FSU isn't even really any good. Go back and check NIU's schedule, they had no business being in a BCS game - but at least the ACC got a W.

  • Speaking of which, big ups to the ACC's performance in the bowls. Yeah a few of the bigger ones were against uninspired (USC) or undertalented (NIU) teams, but overall a 6-3 performance speaks well for the health of the new ACC.
Dabo & Co. repped the ACC well.
  • Favorite game: Clemson beating LSU. Not because I ever root for Clemson, just a great game/comeback/ACC! ACC! (Close second was USC's shootout with Michigan).

Back up QB game-winning TD
  • I'll be honest, I barely watched any of Johnnie Football's games before the Cotton Bowl. Obviously I knew he was good, but holy banana pants what a performance. The guy is the special-est of the special. 

BOWL GAME PICKEM RESULTS

Pierce: 20
Kendall: 17
Mike: 16
Jamie: 14

Maybe we'll have to include the bigger UVa blogs/sites next year, as we at Wahooze clearly lorded our prognostication over Jamie Oakes. Also, I won. Everything is as it should be.

FINAL 2012 WAHOOZE PIX RESULTS

Pierce: 93
Mike: 88
Guests: 85
Kendall: 83

The foregone conclusions that was my victory is complete. Chest bumps all around.


 Ladies and Gentlemen, I am now scientifically proven to be better at this than Mike and Kendall (last year's dreadful chokejob aside). Special shout out to Big K for losing to the Guests. Here's looking to my new retirement plan in 2013 - who's got the hookup with a good sports betting site?

Thanks for reading, Wahooze nation. Now back to your regularly scheduled basketball updates and football coaching staff changes.



January 7, 2013

Coaches vs. Recruiters

UVA won it's 11th game of the season last night in a 61-52 defensive spectacle. Questionable prior to the game with an ankle injury, Akil Mitchell turned in an energetic performance in which he and Darion Atkins completely dominated the paint against what was clearly a disjointed and inexperienced Tar Heel attack, and held potential lottery pick James Michael McAdoo to a meager 10 points and 4 turnovers. The Hoos put on a clinic, and one that clearly brought to light just what Hoofans can expect from this program during the Bennett era.

The main focus of hiring Tony Bennett was bringing in a coach who was capable of competing in the ACC, knowing full well the recruiting disadvantages of any school in the ACC not named Duke or North Carolina. Tony was hired because he had a scheme that he knew worked, and that could maximize what he could get out of his talent, instead of maximizing the talent he could get. A common theme among ACC teams is to out recruit the rest of the country. While it is effective due to the ACC's national prominence, there is no way to assume a level of sustained success at any program without also possessing a top notch coach who can develop the star power he brings in, and can continue to bring in top notch talent. If you need an example of this you can look at Dave Leitao's last ditch effort to save his job, Sylven Landesberg. That's a prime example of a kid coming in to be the star of the team, and then jump straight to the NBA. That's what the typical ACC coach sells. Playing time, national exposure, and in turn a ticket to the NBA. It's an effective strategy, for a year or two. It will be interesting to see how the Terps or the NC State Wolfpack recruiting classes look over the next few seasons, as players will see that they are not walking into a big role, and it will come down to what these coaches can do when their classes return to only above average, and not otherworldly. At some point, unless you are a blueblood program, it is all going to catch up with you. And as we saw last night, sometimes it will catch up to a blueblood as well.

Let's compare the recruiting rankings of the starting 5's from last night. 

UNC:
James Michael McAdoo  (*****) Ranked 8th Nationally for Class of 2011
Dexter Strickland (****) Ranked 34th Nationally for Class of 2009
Reggie Bullock (*****) Ranked 10th Nationally for Class of 2010
Marcus Paige (****) Ranked 38th Nationally for Class of 2012
Desmond Hubert (***) Ranked 140th Nationally for Class of 2011

UVA:
Darion Atkins (***) Not Ranked Nationally
Paul Jesperson (***) Ranked 136th Nationally for Class of 2011
Akil Mitchell (***) Not Ranked Nationally
Joe Harris (***) Ranked 119th Nationally for Class of 2010
Teven Jones (***) Not Ranked Nationally


Clearly, and I do mean clearly, UVA was the better team last night. Smothering defense, timely shooting, and a willingness to play together to frustrate and confuse the opponent cause the Wahoos to pick up a big win to start ACC play. This win demonstrates the difference between a great coach and a great recruiter and should be the game that everyone points to whenever someone brings up our lack of talent or criticizes our style of play. This is what Virginia basketball is, and will be. A system that will work, that is built on defense, and does not require elite level talent to succeed. This is coupled with the tremendous coaching staff that knows the system, and can develop players into stars. Akil Mitchell was considered a throw-in at the end of the 2010 class, and look at him now. We have a staff and system in place that can build a consistent and sustained winner, and most importantly, one that is not built on flash-in-the-pan incredible recruiting hauls. Last night's game was more than a great win. It was a statement about UVA basketball and where it is heading. And that direction is very clearly up.