January 25, 2013

Marching...



Great win last night.

We're now up to #114 in the RPI.

Our remaining schedule:
  • BC (#131) 
  • NCSU (#17) 
  • @ GT (#135) 
  • Clemson (#150) 
  • @ Maryland (#64) 
  • VT (#139) 
  • @ UNC (#35) 
  • @ Miami (#3) 
  • GT (#135) 
  • Duke (#1) 
  • @ BC (#131) 
  • @ FSU (#73) 
  • Maryland (#64)

Beating the six teams below us in RPI puts us at 19-12 (9-9 ACC). That does not earn an NCAA Tournament bid. So we need to win at least two of the other games, and probably three if we want to safely be a tournament team.

We all know we'll drop at least one of those six "gimme" games. So we need to win four of the seven tougher games. I'd rank our chances in descending order of probability:
  • Maryland 
  • NCSU 
  • @ Maryland 
  • @ UNC 
  • @ FSU 
  • @ Miami 
  • Duke (Sorry, just don't see us beating them this season.)

Can we take four of those seven? Three?

Let's say we go 5-1 in the "gimme" games and 3-4 in the "tough" games, then we'd be 21-10 (11-7 ACC). I think that's possible, and definitely our most likely path into the Tournament... but off the bubble and after sweating out a very nervous Selection Sunday.

My advice to UVA basketball fans right now is this: Enjoy the ride for what it's worth.  Recognize our fatal flaws, which is shoddy point guard play and not enough beef down low.  Enjoy the upsets we are certain to spring down the stretch this season, and try not to sweat the disastrous losses.  Embrace an NIT bid, if that's where we end up --- that's a great achievement for such a young team, and would set the table for what could be a truly special 2013-14 season.

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