August 27, 2013

Stat Projections!

I finished up the position previews ("Movies I Love") for all of the offensive skill position players, HERE, HERE, and HERE.  With those in place, I thought it might be fun to pump out some stat projections for the players.  Consider this a numerical representation of where I think our production will be coming from, assuming good health for all players.

David Watford
58% completion percentage, 3100 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
65 carries, 300 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns
I'm expecting a bit of a scattergun arm with Watford, but the wheels will pay dividends.  He won't be a running QB, per se... but by the end of the season I think his scrambles - along with the scripted read option stuff - will be a big part of the offense.

Greyson Lambert
56% completion percentage, 300 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception
Strictly mop-up duty here.  But realistically, he'll play more than this, because realistically Watford will miss some time here and there with dings, scratches, and dents.  That's especially true if D-Wat gets 65 carries.

Kevin Parks
200 carries, 950 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns
18 receptions, 150 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
KP is about to embark upon a hellmarch toward the 1K mark.  I think he'll fall just short, as Smoke and Watford take too much of a bite out of the workload.  Say it after me: "KP1K!"

Smoke Mizzell
90 carries, 450 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns
42 receptions, 350 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns
Hello, 800 yards from scrimmage!  The scary thing is that I think this might even be a conservative estimate for the Smoke Monster.  (Damn right I just gave a nickname to the nickname.  LOST fans, unite!)

Khalek Shepherd
45 carries, 250 rushing yards, 1 touchdown
12 receptions, 100 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
I'd predict more receptions here if it weren't for Mizzell's presence... and if it weren't for the presence of Shepherd's facemask!  Ziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing!  Or, should I say, dooooooooooooooooink!

Fullbacks in Toto
15 carries, 50 rushing yards, 1 touchdown
12 receptions, 100 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
Not really sure what to look for here.  I'm hoping Connor Wingo-Reeves ends up winning the fullback job outright, and I hope he gets some looks in the running and passing game, not just as a lead blocker.

NOTE: I think we'll see a few carries by wide receivers on end-arounds and other trick plays, but those are impossible to predict and crazy for me to list here.

Tim Smith
50 receptions, 750 yards, 5 touchdowns
If, IF, if he can stay healthy.

Darius Jennings
45 receptions, 650 yards, 4 touchdowns
He'll need to be more efficient with his production, because a healthy Tim Smith will take some looks away.

Jake McGee
40 receptions, 500 yards, 5 touchdowns
I don't have much faith in the coaching staff deciding to do the right thing and pump balls at McGee every game.  (Yep, I just said "pump balls."  Back off.)  Third on the depth chart, trying to turn him into a blocker... it all stinks.  But in the end, he's just too good to not use, and I think this is a fair expectation for his numbers.

Dominique Terrell
30 receptions, 300 yards, 1 touchdown
Against my better judgement, 30 catches.  Slot work in this offense should be a lucrative endeavor.

E.J. Scott
20 receptions, 200 yards, 2 touchdowns
"Criminally underused" is my bold prediction for EJS this season.

Adrian Gamble
10 receptions, 150 yards, 1 touchdown
More flashes, but not enough consistent PT for much more than flashes to be able to be shown.

Zach Swanson
10 receptions, 100 yards, 1 touchdown
I have no idea what we'll get from Z-Swan this season, so I just kind of slid him into Colter Phillips' and Paul Freedman's vacated production.

Rob Burns
5 receptions, 50 yards, 1 touchdown
There's a buzz around Burns right now, so this might be a gross misprediction.  He could be our secret weapon, effectively QUADRUPLING these numbers I have listed for him.

Miles Gooch
2 receptions, 10 yards, 2 touchdowns
Sheer wishful thinking here.

NOTE: I think Canaan Severin and Kyle Dockins will get on the field, but I'm not predicting any stats for those guys at this time.

I tried to keep the numbers as realistic and reasonable as possible.

So what do you think?  Am I completely out of my depth?  Where do you think I'm really wrong, and where do you think I nailed it?  Post it in the comments, bro.


  1. I think Burns may become a big time redzone target. I think you'll see us go spread near the goalline to keep people nervous about DW and his ability to run. Similar to what the skins do near the goalline, just hopefully without the bone crushing hits to our QB. I think burns would get one of those 5 spots in that alignment and in a one on one I would probably throw to the 6-7 kid with hands.

  2. this is a great post. money where your mouth is, i love it