Handicapping the Coaching Search

I've been spending the better part of the last two weeks wallowing in the rumors and conjecture surrounding our search for a new head football coach. I've heard lots (30+) of names batted around, but only seven have bubbled to the surface as *realistic* candidates. Based on everything I've been hearing, here is the short list of coaching candidates, along with my best guess at the percentage chance that they'll be Virginia's next head football coach.


Mike London, Richmond -- 50% chance
The peoples' favorite has an impressive groundswell of support. Popular recent opinion has him poaching Chris Beatty from the West Virginia staff as an assistant. (For those of you who don't know, Beatty is renowned as a master recruiter in the state of Virginia, specializing in the talent-rich Tidewater region.)

Jim Grobe, Wake Forest -- 15% chance
He would have been a slam dunk hire two years ago... Wake's recent drop-off has tarnished Grobe's reputation and buzz-worthiness. There is currently a lot of smoke billowing from the Grobe-to-UVA rumors. Personally, I think Grobe would be a fantastic choice. He took Wake Forest to an ACC championship, which is akin to someone winning the SEC championship at Vanderbilt.

Chris Petersen, Boise State -- 10% chance
The guys at Cavs Corner have heard that Petersen is a serious candidate, probably due to Jon Oliver's connections at Boise State. I'm still in the process of wrapping my mind around the idea of Petersen as our next head coach... and just hoping that if it happens, it isn't Dan Hawkins at Colorado, Part II.

Al Golden, Temple -- 10% chance
He's done great things at Temple, and rumor has it he had some admirers among the athletic department staff when he was our defensive coordinator. I like Golden's ability to recruit the Northeast, but don't like the fact that he's a branch on the Al Groh coaching tree. Still, if you can win at Temple, you can win anywhere.

Troy Calhoun, Air Force -- 5% chance
His name is gaining serious traction after it faded almost completely away about a month ago. Calhoun is a candidate on the rise in terms of buzz and scuttlebutt. He's a "systems" guy whose personality really fits the Craig Littlepage hiring pattern. In a nutshell, I think Calhoun could be our Tony Bennett of football.

Derek Dooley, Louisiana Tech -- 5% chance
His obvious UVA ties keep him in the discussion, but many people think he hasn't shown quite enough at LaTech to warrant this opportunity. While I don't really disagree with that, I think if we miss this opportunity to hire him, an SEC school will snatch him up in another year or two.  If I were in charge of this decision, Dooley would be my man -- more than anyone else, he's a UVA guy, plus he has experience as a program administrator, plus he runs a bonafide spread-style offense, PLUS he's learned from the best college football coach in the nation in Nick Saban.  Dooley is my guy.

Charlie Strong, Florida (Defensive Coordinator) -- 3% chance
He's probably my personal favorite, but his name is fading fast in terms of buzz. That's unfortunate, because I think this guy will run through walls to succeed as a head coach, once he finally gets his chance. He also would be the best East Coast recruiter on this list, and would be able to lure in the highest quality assistants.

OTHER -- 1% chance it'll be a guy from this list:
Tommy Tuberville
Randy Edsall, UConn
Phil Fulmer
Skip Holtz, ECU
Brian Kelly, Cincinnati
Todd Graham, Tulsa
Kevin Sumlin, Houston
Gary Patterson, TCU
Mickey Matthews, JMU
Major Applewhite, Texas (assistant)
Turner Gill, Buffalo
Greg Schiano, Rutgers
Steve Logan
Brent Venables, Oklahoma (DC)
Dave Clawson, Bowling Green
Tim Murphy, Harvard
K.C. Keeler, Delaware
Ken Niumatalolo, Navy
Mike Leach, Texas Tech
Danny Rocco, Liberty
Larry Coker
OUT OF LEFT FIELD -- 1% chance it'll be a guy we've never mentioned, thought of, or maybe even heard of.

Hang in there, my friends. The Al Groh era will end in just eleven days...