2017-18: Tony Bennett's Most Talented Team Yet

You heard me.

My hypothesis: IF you allow that recruit rankings is a valid measure of a player's base talent level, AND minutes played is an accurate measure of the dosage of that talent upon the roster, THEN the 2017-18 Virginia basketball team will be the most talented team Tony Bennett has fielded.  And it's not close.

And - even though math is not my strength - I've got some math to back up my claim.

BOOOOOOOOOM.

Take a look at my pretty tables...


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Bennett's Recruits at Virginia
Recruit	School	Year	Natl Rank
Tristan Spurlock	Virginia	2009	73
Jontel Evans	Virginia	2009	283
KT Harrell	Virginia	2010	47
James Johnson	Virginia	2010	71
Joe Harris	Virginia	2010	132
Will Regan	Virginia	2010	155
Akil Mitchell	Virginia	2010	248
Billy Baron	Virginia	2010	308
Anthony Gill	South Carolina	2011	95
Malcolm Brogdon	Virginia	2011	99
Paul Jesperson	Virginia	2011	114
Darion Atkins	Virginia	2011	unranked
Justin Anderson	Virginia	2012	50
Evan Nolte	Virginia	2012	79
Mike Tobey	Virginia	2012	81
Taylor Barnette	Virginia	2012	243
Teven Jones	Virginia	2012	245
Austin Nichols	Memphis	2013	22
Devon Hall	Virginia	2013	123
London Perrantes	Virginia	2013	124
Darius Thompson	Tennessee	2013	191
B.J. Stith	Virginia	2014	98
Isaiah Wilkins	Virginia	2014	145
Marial Shayok	Virginia	2014	163
Jack Salt	Virginia	2014	353
Mamadi Diakite	Virginia	2015	33
Jarred Reuter	Virginia	2015	158
Kyle Guy	Virginia	2016	38
Ty Jerome	Virginia	2016	44
Jay Huff	Virginia	2016	60
DeAndre Hunter	Virginia	2016	92
Marco Anthony	Virginia	2017	235

Simple enough.  These are all of the guys Tony Bennett has recruited to UVA, to date.  The "Year" column was the year they were a high school recruit, thus it was the year they were ranked.  "Natl Rank" was their overall recruit ranking the year they were recruited.  I color coded the table so the intake years would be separated.  And, yes, the transfers are included.

Now, from most-talented to least-talented...

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Bennett's Virginia Recruits, Ranked
	Recruit	School	Year	Natl Rank
#1	Austin Nichols	Memphis	2013	22
#2	Mamadi Diakite	Virginia	2015	33
#3	Kyle Guy	Virginia	2016	38
#4	Ty Jerome	Virginia	2016	44
#5	KT Harrell	Virginia	2010	47
#6	Justin Anderson	Virginia	2012	50
#7	Jay Huff	Virginia	2016	60
#8	James Johnson	Virginia	2010	71
#9	Tristan Spurlock	Virginia	2009	73
#10	Evan Nolte	Virginia	2012	79
#11	Mike Tobey	Virginia	2012	81
#12	DeAndre Hunter	Virginia	2016	92
#13	Anthony Gill	South Carolina	2011	95
#14	B.J. Stith	Virginia	2014	98
#15	Malcolm Brogdon	Virginia	2011	99
#16	Paul Jesperson	Virginia	2011	114
#17	Devon Hall	Virginia	2013	123
#18	London Perrantes	Virginia	2013	124
#19	Joe Harris	Virginia	2010	132
#20	Isaiah Wilkins	Virginia	2014	145
#21	Will Regan	Virginia	2010	155
#22	Jarred Reuter	Virginia	2015	158
#23	Marial Shayok	Virginia	2014	163
#24	Darius Thompson	Tennessee	2013	191
#25	Marco Anthony	Virginia	2017	235
#26	Taylor Barnette	Virginia	2012	243
#27	Teven Jones	Virginia	2012	245
#28	Akil Mitchell	Virginia	2010	248
#29	Jontel Evans	Virginia	2009	283
#30	Billy Baron	Virginia	2010	308
#31	Jack Salt	Virginia	2014	353
#32	Darion Atkins	Virginia	2011	unranked

[Projected] members of the 2017-18 team are in blue and orange, nimrod.

Okay, it's almost time for some comparative analysis.

The liberties I'm taking:

• National Rank the year the player was recruited is a measure of the player's natural talent, prior to seasoning, development, and system integration within Virginia Basketball.  It's just a raw measure, not meant to be totally reflective of that player's value --- instead, it's just a measure of his natural tools.
• Higher ranked players playing more minutes means we were putting more natural talent on the floor; therefore, Natl Rank x Minutes Played = Impact Value of that talent.  A higher-ranked recruit playing more minutes yields a higher value than a lower-ranked player playing the same minutes or a similarly-ranked player playing fewer minutes.
• Player development, intangibles, "fit," and inherent value to the team is reflected by minutes played.  Coach doesn't / won't / wouldn't play players who hurt the team unless he had no other, better options available.
• Raw, stupid, dumb, natural talent isn't changed.  Your recruiting ranking is your recruiting ranking.  Maybe you get bigger and stronger and more skilled, but you never really run faster or jump higher; your basketball acumen as measured as a high school senior is mostly the destiny you live out as a college player.  (I know there will be disagreement with this point, but I urge you to ask yourself: Why, then, do we ever care about recruiting rankings?  The answer is that raw, dumb, stupid, natural talent doesn't change.)

With that being said, let me restate my hypothesis here: IF you allow that recruit rankings is a valid measure of a player's base talent level, AND minutes played is an accurate measure of the dosage of that talent upon the roster, THEN the 2017-18 Virginia basketball team will be the most talented team Tony Bennett has fielded. And it's not close.

Let's take a look...

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2011-12
Recruit	School	Year	Natl Rank	11-12	min	%	Value
KT Harrell	Virginia	2010	47	47	208	0.05	18.30
James Johnson	Virginia	2010	71	71	37	0.01	3.03
Malcolm Brogdon	Virginia	2011	99	99	626	0.16	46.98
Paul Jesperson	Virginia	2011	114	114	220	0.05	15.69
Joe Harris	Virginia	2010	132	132	969	0.24	64.78
Akil Mitchell	Virginia	2010	248	248	705	0.18	26.81
Jontel Evans	Virginia	2009	283	283	984	0.24	28.85
Darion Atkins	Virginia	2011	unranked	400	275	0.07	0.07
				174.25	4024	1.00	204.51

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2012-13
Recruit	School	Year	Natl Rank	12-13	min	%	Value
Justin Anderson	Virginia	2012	50	50	841	0.12	42.95
Evan Nolte	Virginia	2012	79	79	694	0.10	32.51
Mike Tobey	Virginia	2012	81	81	416	0.06	19.37
Paul Jesperson	Virginia	2011	114	114	900	0.13	37.58
Joe Harris	Virginia	2010	132	132	1139	0.17	44.58
Taylor Barnette	Virginia	2012	243	243	248	0.04	5.70
Teven Jones	Virginia	2012	245	245	405	0.06	9.19
Akil Mitchell	Virginia	2010	248	248	1069	0.16	23.80
Jontel Evans	Virginia	2009	283	283	754	0.11	12.95
Darion Atkins	Virginia	2011	unranked	400	407	0.06	0.06
				187.50	6873	1.00	228.69

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2013-14
Recruit	School	Year	Natl Rank	13-14	min	%	Value
Justin Anderson	Virginia	2012	50	50	796	0.11	38.32
Evan Nolte	Virginia	2012	79	79	297	0.04	13.12
Mike Tobey	Virginia	2012	81	81	668	0.09	29.32
Anthony Gill	South Carolina	2011	95	95	733	0.10	30.76
Malcolm Brogdon	Virginia	2011	99	99	1163	0.16	48.17
London Perrantes	Virginia	2013	124	124	1105	0.15	41.98
Joe Harris	Virginia	2010	132	132	1066	0.15	39.33
Teven Jones	Virginia	2012	245	245	125	0.02	2.67
Akil Mitchell	Virginia	2010	248	248	952	0.13	19.98
Darion Atkins	Virginia	2011	unranked	400	386	0.05	0.05
				155.30	7291	1.00	263.71

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2014-15
Recruit	School	Year	Natl Rank	14-15	min	%	Value
Justin Anderson	Virginia	2012	50	50	724	0.11	37.48
Evan Nolte	Virginia	2012	79	79	590	0.09	28.02
Mike Tobey	Virginia	2012	81	81	582	0.09	27.46
Anthony Gill	South Carolina	2011	95	95	859	0.13	38.76
B.J. Stith	Virginia	2014	98	98	63	0.01	2.82
Malcolm Brogdon	Virginia	2011	99	99	1105	0.16	49.21
Devon Hall	Virginia	2013	123	123	244	0.04	10.00
London Perrantes	Virginia	2013	124	124	1065	0.16	43.50
Isaiah Wilkins	Virginia	2014	145	145	264	0.04	9.97
Marial Shayok	Virginia	2014	163	163	496	0.07	17.41
Darion Atkins	Virginia	2011	unranked	400	789	0.12	0.12
				132.45	6781	1.00	264.75

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2015-16
Recruit	School	Year	Natl Rank	15-16	min	%	Value
Evan Nolte	Virginia	2012	79	79	299	0.04	13.05
Mike Tobey	Virginia	2012	81	81	581	0.08	25.21
Anthony Gill	South Carolina	2011	95	95	1037	0.14	43.02
Malcolm Brogdon	Virginia	2011	99	99	1263	0.17	51.71
Devon Hall	Virginia	2013	123	123	809	0.11	30.49
London Perrantes	Virginia	2013	124	124	1162	0.16	43.64
Isaiah Wilkins	Virginia	2014	145	145	792	0.11	27.49
Jarred Reuter	Virginia	2015	158	158	121	0.02	3.99
Marial Shayok	Virginia	2014	163	163	526	0.07	16.97
Darius Thompson	Tennessee	2013	191	191	648	0.09	18.45
Jack Salt	Virginia	2014	353	353	138	0.02	0.90
				146.45	7376	1.00	274.91

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2016-17
Recruit	School	Year	Natl Rank	16-17	min	%	Value
Austin Nichols	Memphis	2013	22	22	16	0.00	0.89
Mamadi Diakite	Virginia	2015	33	33	449	0.07	24.20
Kyle Guy	Virginia	2016	38	38	634	0.09	33.70
Ty Jerome	Virginia	2016	44	44	473	0.07	24.73
Devon Hall	Virginia	2013	123	123	931	0.14	37.90
London Perrantes	Virginia	2013	124	124	1093	0.16	44.33
Isaiah Wilkins	Virginia	2014	145	145	874	0.13	32.76
Jarred Reuter	Virginia	2015	158	158	344	0.05	12.24
Marial Shayok	Virginia	2014	163	163	702	0.10	24.47
Darius Thompson	Tennessee	2013	191	191	686	0.10	21.10
Jack Salt	Virginia	2014	353	353	627	0.09	4.41
				126.73	6829	1.00	260.72

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2017-18
Recruit	School	Year	Natl Rank	17-18	MPG	%	Value
Mamadi Diakite	Virginia	2015	33	33	18.00	0.09	33.12
Kyle Guy	Virginia	2016	38	38	32.00	0.16	58.08
Ty Jerome	Virginia	2016	44	44	32.00	0.16	57.12
Jay Huff	Virginia	2016	60	60	14.00	0.07	23.87
DeAndre Hunter	Virginia	2016	92	92	18.00	0.09	27.81
Devon Hall	Virginia	2013	123	123	32.00	0.16	44.48
Isaiah Wilkins	Virginia	2014	145	145	30.00	0.15	38.40
Marco Anthony	Virginia	2017	235	235	6.00	0.03	4.98
Jack Salt	Virginia	2014	353	353	18.00	0.09	4.32
				124.78	200.00	1.00	292.18

Yeahbuddy.

I think hope that was pretty self-explanatory.

Darion Atkins being unranked kind of fucks some of the numbers up, but I still think it's a decent look at the talent (measured by recruit ranking) by roster dosage (minutes played) for each season.

Another illustrative table.

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Season	Record	NCAAT	Kendall Value
2011-12	22-10 (9-7 ACC)	Round of 64	204.51
2012-13	23-12 (11-7 ACC)	NIT	228.69
2013-14	30-7 (16-2 ACC)	Sweet 16	263.71
2014-15	30-4 (16-2 ACC)	Round of 32	264.75
2015-16	29-8 (13-5 ACC)	Elite 8	274.91
2016-17	23-11 (11-7 ACC)	Round of 32	260.72
2017-18	???	???	292.18

And a... what do you call these things?  A chart?  A graph?

Tony Bennett has been a success so far at Virginia by doing more with less.  Next season, potential depth issues aside, he will be attempting to do more with... more.

Pretty big reasons for optimism, despite the losses of Reuter, Shayok, and Thompson.

GO HOOS!




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