Season Preview - Penn State

Wahooze 2012 Season Preview moves right along this week to Virginia's second home game of the season against the visiting...oh god damnit. Really? What in the hell am I supposed to say here?


Saturday, September 8th

Well...this is awkward.

I'm not really going to get into my thoughts or feelings on the whole Penn State disaster here, as I'm sure everyone's read enough about it. But go ahead a mark me down in the "not feeling sorry for rapists and those who cover up such atrocities" camp. By all means, feel free to argue with me in the comments. But for now, let's discuss the Nittany Lions football team (or what potentially will be left of it).

Penn State's roster could undergo some serious changes in the upcoming weeks, as every player is immediately eligible to transfer without penalty. That could lead to an exodus of talent, particularly from those with plenty of remaining eligibility. However, star running back Silas Redd has already decided to remain in Happy Valley before the NFL, so if others follow his lead, the team may remain as competitive as it was before the sanctions. This won't last, but I'd expect this year's PSU team to win plenty of games. Will one of those games be in Charlottesville? That will depend on the following:

New Head Coach Bill O'Brien inherits a team with plenty of both talent and holes in the depth chart and, of course, the effects of the scandal and subsequent sanctions. Assuming most of the star players remain on the team, Silas Redd leads an offense with a loaded crew of running backs, including Redd, Curtis Dukes, and Bill Belton. Look for O'Brien to rely heavily on the tight ends as well, as the roster includes plenty of good ones, including Kevin Haplea, Garry Gilliam, and incoming recruit/Virginia target Brent Wilkerson. O'Brien used tight ends heavily last year in New England, but he also had Tom Brady throwing the ball to them. Penn State's biggest weakness on offense this year may be at quarterback, as former-walk-on Matt McGloin is no Tom Brady. He's no Mike Rocco, even. The tight end position might be more important to O'Brien this year, as they're going to need to block for whichever subpar QB starts, open space for the running backs, as well as play safety net in the receiving corps.

On defense, the Lions will rely on an experienced and talented group at linebacker, led by Michael Mauti and Khairi Fortt. The defensive line is thin and inexperienced and the secondary is in even worse shape. Yes, the team recruited very well last year, so potential young star players might arise this summer in camp, but it would be an extreme leap of faith, especially considering the possible attrition, to assume the PSU D will be anything but mediocre early in the season. O'Brien is an offense guy, their holdover from the previous administration, Larry Johnson, is a recruiter more than d-line coach, and the new coordinator is Ted (Former Duke Head Coach) Roof. I don't see this being a good year for Linebacker U on defense. That being said, the namesake position is stocked, so there is potential for decent play. Hopefully, Virginia's offense is clicking as well as it did at times last season and the Hoos can light it up at home.

Though before the sanctions most pundits were probably going to give the edge to PSU, I think the distraction and attrition from the scandal will be enough to swing most predictions towards UVA. That being said, this is definitely a loseable game for the Hoos. The offense must be sharp, regardless of who's starting at QB and the young defense will need to step up their play after only having one game against FCS for experience. The game will probably be more of an indication of where UVA is as a team than PSU: If Virginia is in solid shape by early September, they should win. If they don't, we're looking at a very disappointing season.

Early Prediction: Hoos 23 Lions 20