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July 30, 2012

Bowling & Burgers, 2nd Frame: The Secondary



Second frame... secondary.  Makes sense, right?

The tweet for Nathan:

It's Tra Nicholson and a whole lot of WHO KNOWS??? in the 2012 secondary. There's talent, but it's woefully inexperienced. Toast, anyone?


Now it's time for bowling and burgers!

Strikes
  • There is a lot of uncertainty in the secondary heading into this season, but one thing is certain -- Tra Nicholson will start at cornerback, and he'll be an impact player for us.  He's only a sophomore, can he be a leader amongst the young defensive backs?  That remains to be seen.  I really like what Pre-Snap Read's Paul Myerberg had to say about Tra:
Is Demetrious Nicholson (60 tackles, 2 interceptions) ready? Is he ready to assume the mantle? Is he next, following in the footsteps of Ras-I Dowling and Chase Minniefield, the program’s most recent stoppers at cornerback? U.Va. hopes so – prays, actually, that Nicholson can play beyond his youth and give this defense the all-A.C.C. cornerback it needs on the outside. My only issue with Nicholson isn’t with his talent, because he most certainly has all-conference ability; I’m just worried that as a true sophomore, he’s not quite ready for taking on every team’s top receiver. 
One thing you know: Nicholson is going to get better every week.
  • The secondary is the "talent dump" area on the team.  What I mean by that is that it seems like the coaching staff is content to recruit a lot of lower-rated, darkhorse type of talent, raw speed/athleticism athletes with no set position, and simply slot those guys in the secondary.  Our staff is throwing numbers at the wall to see what sticks.  I list this as a positive, because I like the approach --- if you're athletic and can run, and if you're willing tom work hard and hone your craft, you can have a future as a defensive back.  Guys like Maurice Canady, Pablo Alvarez, Demeitre Brim, Divante Walker, and Wil Wahee were all relatively positionless coming out of high school, yet all are athletic and can run.  Not all will stick, but enough will.  And heck, maybe some of them will even emerge as stars at some point in the future.
  • I'm bullish on Ant Harris this season.  I think he'll quickly put one of the starting safety spots in a stranglehold this summer, and give us an instant upgrade over Corey Mosley in 2012.
  • I'm also a bit bullish on Rijo Walker.  I don't think he's really a safety, and I wish we had the experienced depth to slot him as the nickel specialist, but I think he's got ability and I think he'll be a plus-level centerfielder-type cover safety... something we've lacked for a few years here at UVA.
  • Speaking of nickel specialist, that's the role I predict for Brandon Phelps this season.  I think he'll excel in that sort of role, where he's free to focus on a few specific situations and assignments while he continues to learn the nuances of playing in the defensive secondary.
  • I have a good gut feeling about Mason Thomas.  Not sure why.  Maybe it's just wishful thinking and optimism.  I did like what I saw from him in the Spring Game.  Seems like a solid, no-frills, blue collar guy.
  • We added a couple of under-the-radar true cornerbacks in the 2012 recruiting class -- Kelvin Rainey and C.J. Moore.  I like the "talent dump" approach in the secondary, but I also like recruiting a few guys who know the cornerback position already and expect to play there.  Raw athletes tend to develop faster / better at safety.

Gutters
  • As good as Tra is, he's still a small guy at just 5-11, 165.  Bigger receivers will be able to post him up, and with such a small frame, Tra could be injury-prone if he's asked to play too many snaps.  Not a great situation for your only vaguely known commodity in the secondary.
  • The inexperience we have in the secondary scares me.  If we can't establish a consistent pass rush - a very distinct possibility - I fear we'll be seeing a lot of young guys blowing coverage and yielding big plays on the reg.  That shit costs you games.  The passing offenses of Louisiana Tech and Duke specifically could give us problems in games we should otherwise win.
  • Two former walk-ons - Drequan Hoskey and Brendan Morgan - figure to have prominent roles in the rotation this season.  I'm not a talent snob, not by any means, but Hoskey is a track guy learning the cornerback position on the fly and Morgan came from out of nowhere.  The fact that they are both expected to crack the two-deep speaks volumes about where we are right now in this area of the field.
  • Some true freshmen are going to have to play this season.  You'd like to be able to redshirt all of these raw athletes, but that's not a luxury we can afford right now.  Some will 'shirt, but some will have to play.  Not ideal.
  • There is a lot of smoke around Kameron Mack right now.  Is he a potential transfer?  That would be a shame, because I really like the kid's size (6-5, 205) in the strong safety role.  Stay tuned on this one...

Projected Depth Chart
CB) #1 Demetrious "Tra" Nicholson (So.), #23 Brendan Morgan (So.), Maurice Canady (Fr.), C.J. Moore (Fr.)
FS) #27 Rijo Walker (Jr.), #41 Pablo Alvarez (So.), #43 Kameron Mack (So.)
SS) #28 Anthony Harris (So.), #46 Mason Thomas (RS Fr.), #31 Kyrrel Latimer (RS Fr.), Demeitre Brim (Fr.)
CB) #22 Drequan Hoskey (So.), #21 Brandon Phelps (So.), Divante Walker (Fr.), Wil Wahee (Fr.), Kelvin Rainey (Fr.)





Burgers...

Pierce: Going into this season, the secondary is like ordering a burger at a hole in the wall place in the middle of nowhere. You've been driving all day, you don't know exactly where you are, and you don't know exactly what to expect except for one thing: it'll be beef between two buns and probably greasy. The Hoos know the basic parts will be there, but with the youth and inexperience, no one can be sure of the quality. This burger might be a fantastic hidden gem - a unheralded family recipe that stacks up with the famous and delicious Five Guys - or you could get stuck with a weeks-frozen poorly-prepared plate of garbage. 

Mike: Our 2012 secondary is a Boylan Heights burger. Initially you think it sucks, but with some work and putting the right ingredients together it becomes tolerable. Tra is the extra $3 avacado on top, and the rest is a total crap shoot. It could be great. Or the bun could be terrible and the burger could be burnt. But regardless, like a Boylan burger, it will be overpriced (or "over-scrutinized" for purposes of this metaphor.)

Kendall: A thin, hard-fried burger, slightly charred, between two pieces of toast.  Tra Nicholson is the delicious chipotle mayo and bacon draped on the top that make this thing taste pretty good, but at the end of the day this burger is unfortunately burned.


Score for the Frame:
Tra has to represent a solid 7 pins on the first roll.  He's a good player and should get better... rapidly.  But the second roll is a gutterball, due the inexperience across the entire secondary.  Ant Harris, Rijo Walker, Drequan Hoskey, and Brandon Phelps could each be good players and solid starters, but how likely is it that all four will be?  And how likely is it that they'll all be good this season, in their first taste of extended action?  Those odds are long, and realistically, this ball is clunking into the gutter as one or more of those guys prove themselves not quite ready for primetime and holes open up along our secondary.  Some of these guys will be good, some will be pedestrian, we just don't know who.  And if injury hits... the depth is even more green.  Sorry everyone, but the secondary is a real area of concern in 2012.




Score Thru 2 Frames: 24





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