Wahooze ACC Picks -- Week Six

My first bad week of making picks was punctuated by a pick I nailed --- the FSU 34, Virginia 14 score was one I sadly predicted perfectly.  But yeah, it was still a bad week.

Last Week: 4-3 (2-5 ATS)

Season: 35-10 (23-15 ATS)

The Cowgirls still love me, even after a week of bad picks.

Boston College @ NC State (-9.5)
No doubt about it, and no way to sugarcoat it --- State blew that game against Virginia Tech last week.  And that's kind of where the Wolfpack is at right now, good enough to win games against tough competition, but not quite rehearsed enough in winning to be able to do it on a consistent basis.  In other words, some of the execution is still spotty.  Meanwhile, Boston College is swirling the drain after being blown out at home by Virginia Tech and Notre Dame in consecutive weeks.  This is sort of a "man up" game for both teams... but I like State's team more, especially at home.  I think both squads will really be battling for an edge, and this should be an entertaining game to watch.  28-14, NC State

Central Michigan @ Virginia Tech (-22.0)
The turkeys are officially back on track, and with the same basic recipe that they've been winning with for the last decade-plus.  They turn you over and take advantage.  That big play defense and opportunistic offense - featuring a mobile QB - is usually pretty effective at finding your flaws and exploiting them.  It's the relatively unflawed teams that the Hokies tend to struggle with.  CMU isn't bad, but they are a flawed team.  Tech in an animal husbandry-style romp.  51-10, VT

Virginia @ Georgia Tech (-10.0)
Last week's game against FSU should have been a reality check for all Virginia fans.  We're on the fifth game of a massive four-year rebuilding process.  There will be bright moments, but there will also be glimpses back at the stone ages.  Interestingly for this game, the man who single-handedly bombed our program back to paleolithic stages is patrolling the opposing sideline.  I want to see our offense lay 50+ on the Jackets, and I want that with every fiber of my being.  But I'm also a realist.  I know that we'll struggle with lane discipline against Georgia Tech, just as we did against Florida State.  And the triple option offense can shred an undisciplined defense.  That said, I do think we'll hang around a while in a weird sort of slow evolving, sloppy shootout.  (Al Groh's 3-4 defense sucks.)  29-20, GT

Clemson @ North Carolina (-2.5)
This is a crossroads game for both teams -- a win gives them some traction in the conference race, while a loss would send them spiraling out of control.  Carolina has a bit of momentum right now, while Clemson has hit a rough stretch with back-to-back losses to Auburn and Miami.  I think those trends continue, and the Heels win a taut one at home.  (Also, I'm officially not buying Dabo Swinney as the coach to usher Clemson back to glory.  I think he's an okay coach, but programs stuck on the plateau between decent and great need someone special to kick them over the hump.  Swinney ain't it, I have a hunch.)  30-21, UNC

Navy (-3.5) @ Wake Forest
That's right, an ACC team is a home underdog to the Naval Academy.  And with losses to Maryland and Air Force already under their belts, it's not like this year's edition of Navy Football is one of their best in recent memory.  The problem here is Wake Forest, who can't generate enough offense or defense to get much of anything going.  That said, I kinda like the Deacs in this game.  Not sure why... just call it a gut feeling and go with it.  21-20, Wake

Florida State @ Miami (-6.0)
Here is your marquee game of the week in the ACC, obviously.  I think these two teams are probably the two best in the conference... with maybe Virginia Tech muscling into that discussion.  Jacory Harris has been accident prone so far this season, but he has also been deadly effective.  Christian Ponder is a MUCH better scrambler than I ever though he was.  I think this could really be an entertaining duel between two very good teams.  At the end of the day, I like FSU's fierce pass rush to spell the difference --- pressuring Harris could be the key to winning the turnover battle, which will be the key to winning this game.  I like the Noles in a close one.  31-27, FSU