The Four Year Fix?

 

 

On my Saturday night post-mortem after the UNC game, I wrote this:

 

Okay, let me start by reminding everyone that we have to give Mike London FOUR YEARS to get this thing rebuilt and heading in the right direction.

 

 

It's true, you know.  It's going to take four years (at a minimum) to dig this program out of the hole that Al Groh's roster mismanagement, poor recruiting, and asinine redshirting strategies put us into.  It's a deep, dark hole.  Carolina showed us exactly what we all feared the most --- we have a talent deficit that must be overcome before we can return to relevancy.

 

I'd like to take a comprehensive look at the roster projection for each of the next three seasons, to see if the "four year fix" is even within the realm of possibility for Coach London, or if the hole is too deep for even that lengthy timeframe.

 

Can we as a fanbase be patient with this rebuilding process until the 2014 season?  Will we need to wait even longer than that?

 

(What follows is some very serious, overly indulgent rosterbation.  If you're not into that kind of thing, you might want to just skip the remainder of this post.  If, however, you like to take a look at the nuts and bolts of the roster composition... then light up some candles, put on some Marvin Gaye, and let's do this thing.)

 

 

2011 Projected Depth Chart (returning starters in BOLD):

• QB) Mike Rocco, So / Ross Metheny, So / Michael Strauss, RS Fr / David Watford, Fr (3*)
• RB) Perry Jones, Jr / Kevin Parks, RS Fr / Torrey Mack, Jr / Khalek Shepherd, RS Fr / Clifton Richardson, Fr (4*)
• FB) Max Milien, Sr / Terence Fells-Danzer, Sr / Ryan Cobb, RS Fr
• WR) Kris Burd, Sr / Tim Smith, So / Matt Snyder, Sr / Jared Green, Sr / E.J. Scott, RS Fr / Bobby Smith, So / Ray Keys, Sr / Kevin Royal, So / Miles Gooch, RS Fr / Adrian Gamble, Fr (3*)
• TE) Colter Phillips, Jr / Paul Freedman, Jr / Jeremiah Mathis, So / Zachary Swanson, RS Fr / Jake McGee, RS Fr / Darius Redman, Fr (2*)
• LT) Landon Bradley, Sr / Sean Cascarano, So / Conner Davis, RS Fr / Kelby Johnson, Fr (2*)
• LG) Austin Pasztor, Sr / Luke Bowanko, So
• C) Anthony Mihota, Sr / Cody Wallace, RS Fr / Mike Price, Jr
• RG) Morgan Moses, So / Ross Burbank, Fr (3*) / Tim Cwalina, Fr (UR)
• RT) Oday Aboushi, Jr / Aaron Van Kuiken, Jr / Matt Mihalik, Jr
• DE) Cam Johnson, Sr / Zane Parr, Sr / Bill Schautz, Jr / Jake Snyder, Jr / Will Hill, Jr / Stephen Lawe, RS Fr / Rob Burns, Fr (3*) / Thompson Brown, Fr (3*) / Marco Jones, Fr (3*) / Diamonte Bailey, Fr (2*)
• DT) Nick Jenkins, Sr / Matt Conrath, Sr / Justin Renfrow, So / Brent Urban, So / Chris Brathwaite, RS Fr / Hunter Steward, Jr / David Dean, Fr (3*) / Vincent Croce, Fr (3*)
• OLB) LaRoy Reynolds, Jr / Ausar Walcott, Jr / Jared Detrick, Sr / Tucker Windle, Jr / Darius Lee, Fr (2*)
• MLB) Aaron Taliaferro, Sr / Steve Greer, Jr / Connor McCartin, Jr / Henry Coley, RS Fr / Caleb Taylor, Fr (3*)
• S) Rodney McLeod, Sr / Corey Mosley, Sr / Dom Joseph, Sr / LoVante Battle, Jr / Anthony Harris, Fr (3*) / Kameron Mack, Fr (3*) / Kevin Green, Fr (UR)
• CB) Chase Minnifield, Sr / Devin Wallace, Jr / Rijo Walker, So / Javanti Sparrow, Jr / Pablo Alvarez, RS Fr / Drequan Hoskey, RS Fr / Brandon Phelps, Fr (4*) / Jordan Lomax, Fr (3*)
• K) Robert Randolph, Sr / Drew Jarrett, So
• P) Jimmy Howell, Sr
• LS) Matt Fortin, So

Projected Strengths of the 2011 Team:

• 19 returning starters.  Nine on offense, ten on defense.  That's a lot.  A whole lot.  Granted, those starters will be returning from what is likely to be a 4-8 team... but still.  NINETEEN.
• The o-line.  I remain bullish on the talents of Oday Aboushi, Morgan Moses, and Austin Pasztor.  Landon Bradley and Anthony Mihota are no slouches, either.  Bringing the entire unit back should pay dividends for the offense.
• Kris Burd.  Having a legit go-to wideout is a great luxury for a team that will be breaking in a new (young) QB.
• The d-line.  It might not be a great pass rushing unit, but featuring four returning starters, all of whom are entering their third or fourth seasons playing large roles... that's a big deal.

Projected Weaknesses of the 2011 Team:

• Quarterback.  How's that for stating the obvious?  If we don't end up giving Verica the hook this season, we'll be rolling into 2011 with a bunch of very green QBs, none of which have seen meaningful game action.  If he can enroll in January, David Watford might have a legitimate shot to start as a true freshman.  That's a little bit scary to me.
• Power back.  Look, I love Perry Jones, and I expect big things from KP (Kevin Parks).  But these are two smaller, shifty guys.  Six games worth of football in 2010 has shown me that there is absolutely a role for a big, strong power back like Keith Payne in this offense.  In fact, I would almost say it's a critical component to Lazor's system.  And I don't see that power back on the 2011 roster.  Dominique Wallace would have been that guy, but he's gone now.  (I'm actually a little bit confused about why we aren't chasing a big back for one of the spots left in the 2011 class.)
• Cornerback.  I like Chase Minnifield and I think he'll be a fine starter in 2011, but I'm not yet sold on Devin Wallace.  Behind those two is a collection of young guys who haven't really seen the field.  There will be a trial by fire in the secondary in 2011, and it could be somewhat ugly.

Recruiting Focuses for the 2012 Class:

• QB -- Until we find our "franchise" quarterback, we can't stop looking.  And even when we do find that guy, it's important to constantly be stocking the succession plan.
• RB -- KP and Clifton Richardson are both talents, but we still need to locate a Payne-esque thumper in this class.
• WR -- Is E.J. Scott or Adrian Gamble a future go-to guy?  I don't know.  If they aren't, one must be found in this class.
• TE -- In a power-based ball control offense, you have to keep the tight end position well stocked and overflowing with talent.  Besides, this is Tight End U, baby!
• OL -- Five returning starters is great... until you consider the fact that three of them are graduating and there's not a whole lot of quality depth being cultivated behind them.  The next wave of starters must be found.
• DE -- Specifically, the 2012 class needs to include a complete, difference-making, dynamic, explosive pass rusher.  Quality is key, because there is already quantity available on the roster at this position.
• LB -- The 2011 class is certain to contain another one or two middle-tier linebacker prospects, so the depth is there.  What might be missing is the star power.  We need to find a stud or two at LB in the 2012 class.
• DB -- Another safety and another corner would be nice additions to this class.
• P -- Gotta replace Big Jimmy!
• Talent, in general.  Obvious, but it still needs to be said.  The 2012 class is the one where London really needs to deliver the goods --- he'll still be in his honeymoon stage as UVA's head coach, and he'll have a truckload of playing time to sell to recruits.  Upgrading the overall talent level is crucial.  If we end up with mostly 3-star guys with only a couple of 4-stars mixed in the 2012 class, it could spell trouble down the road.  This class needs one or two ELITE 5-star type prospects.  Program-changers.  And it needs to have four or five 4-star talents who can build up the bedrock at key positions.  (And one of these big-time recruits needs to be a quarterback!)  Six "big-time" recruits at a bare minimum, please.

2012 Projected Depth Chart (returning starters in BOLD):

• QB) Mike Rocco, Jr / David Watford, RS Fr / Ross Metheny, Jr / Michael Strauss, So
• RB) Perry Jones, Sr / Kevin Parks, So / Clifton Richardson, RS Fr / Torrey Mack, Sr / Khalek Shepherd, So
• FB) Ryan Cobb, So
• WR) Tim Smith, Jr / E.J. Scott, So / Bobby Smith, Jr / Adrian Gamble, RS Fr / Kevin Royal, Jr / Miles Gooch, So
• TE) Colter Phillips, Sr / Paul Freedman, Sr / Jeremiah Mathis, Jr / Zachary Swanson, So / Darius Redman, RS Fr / Jake McGee, So
• LT) Sean Cascarano, Jr / Conner Davis, So / Kelby Johnson, RS Fr
• LG) Luke Bowanko, Jr / Tim Cwalina, RS Fr
• C) Cody Wallace, So / Mike Price, Sr
• RG) Morgan Moses, Jr / Ross Burbank, RS Fr
• RT) Oday Aboushi, Sr / Aaron Van Kuiken, Sr / Matt Mihalik, Sr
• DE) Bill Schautz, Sr / Jake Snyder, Sr / Will Hill, Sr / Stephen Lawe, So / Rob Burns, RS Fr / Thompson Brown, RS Fr / Marco Jones, RS Fr / Diamonte Bailey, RS Fr
• DT) David Dean, RS Fr / Vincent Croce, RS Fr / Justin Renfrow, Jr / Brent Urban, Jr / Chris Brathwaite, So / Hunter Steward, Sr
• OLB) LaRoy Reynolds, Sr / Ausar Walcott, Sr / Tucker Windle, Sr / Darius Lee, RS Fr
• MLB) Steve Greer, Sr / Connor McCartin, Sr / Henry Coley, So / Caleb Taylor, RS Fr
• S) LoVante Battle, Sr / Kameron Mack, RS Fr / Anthony Harris, RS Fr / Kevin Green, RS Fr
• CB) Devin Wallace, Sr / Rijo Walker, Jr / Brandon Phelps, RS Fr / Jordan Lomax, RS Fr / Javanti Sparrow, Sr / Pablo Alvarez, So / Drequan Hoskey, So
• K) Drew Jarrett, Jr
• P) ???
• LS) Matt Fortin, Jr

 Projected Strengths of the 2012 Team:

• Perry Jones.  KP and Richardson are probably both more talented, but there is something to be said for toughness, hard-earned experience, and leadership.  I think Jones will be the lead dog in the rushing attack as a senior.
• Colter Phillips.  I love the idea of him being a three-year starter at this point in his career.
• The right side of the o-line.  Assuming Aboushi stays at right tackle and Morgan Moses stays at right guard, will there be a better run blocking duo in the ACC?  It's just a guess, but I think Sean Cascarano plays well enough at left tackle to allow this right side to stay together.  If not, Aboushi could slide to LT, with Moses kicking out to RT.
• D-line depth and competition.  London has done a fantastic job of stockpiling defensive line talent in the 2011 class.  The rewards of that effort will be seen as soon as 2012, when this army of linemen takes the field as redshirt freshmen ready to battle for the starting spots left by the senior quartet that graduates in '11.
• Starting linebackers.  By this point, the Reynolds/Greer/Walcott trio will have been starting together for the better part of three years.

Projected Weaknesses of the 2012 Team:

• Just ten returning starters.  That's not a lot.
• Three new starters on the o-line.  'Nuff said.
• Four new starters on the d-line.
• The secondary.  I really worry about the trajectory of the back four.  We really need to land some stud defensive backs in the 2011 and 2012 classes, or this could end up being a damning problem going into year three of the London Administration.

2013 Projected Depth Chart (returning starters in BOLD):

• QB) Mike Rocco, Sr / David Watford, So / Ross Metheny, Sr / Michael Strauss, Jr
• RB) Clifton Richardson, So / Kevin Parks, Jr / Khalek Shepherd, So
• FB) Ryan Cobb, Jr
• WR) Tim Smith, Sr / E.J. Scott, Jr / Bobby Smith, Sr / Adrian Gamble, So / Kevin Royal, Sr / Miles Gooch, Jr
• TE) Jeremiah Mathis, Sr / Zachary Swanson, Jr / Darius Redman, So / Jake McGee, Jr
• LT) Sean Cascarano, Sr / Conner Davis, Jr / Kelby Johnson, So
• LG) Luke Bowanko, Sr / Tim Cwalina, So
• C) Cody Wallace, Jr
• RG) Ross Burbank, So
• RT) Morgan Moses, Sr
• DE) Thompson Brown, So / Marco Jones, So / Stephen Lawe, Jr / Rob Burns, So / Diamonte Bailey, So
• DT) David Dean, So / Vincent Croce, So / Justin Renfrow, Sr / Brent Urban, Sr / Chris Brathwaite, Jr
• OLB) Darius Lee, So
• MLB) Henry Coley, Jr / Caleb Taylor, So
• S) Kameron Mack, So / Anthony Harris, So / Kevin Green, So
• CB) Rijo Walker, Sr / Brandon Phelps, So / Jordan Lomax, So / Pablo Alvarez, Jr / Drequan Hoskey, Jr
• K) Drew Jarrett, Sr
• P) ???
• LS) Matt Fortin, Sr

Projected Strengths of the 2013 Team:

• Senior quarterback.  If I'm right, and Mike Rocco takes the reins as the starter in 2011, then he'll be entering his senior season in 2013... just in time for the "show me" year for Coach London.
• The Richardson/KP combo at running back will be battle hardened by 2013.  It should be an explosive combo for us to lean on.
• Tim Smith.  There's nothing better than a deep threat speed merchant who also happens to be a senior playmaker.  God bless this medical redshirt in 2011.
• Morgan Moses.  I'm not comfortable going on record that the big man will be at UVA this long... but if he stays in school and doesn't jump to the NFL, he will be on everyone's All-American team as a senior.

Projected Weakness of the 2013 Team:

• Defense.  Aside from the Dean/Croce combo at tackle and the mountain of depth at defensive end, I don't see a lot to like defensively.  That of course means that the D (especially the back seven) will be a recruiting focus for the 2013 recruiting class... but even if London is able to land the talent, it will still be young entering the 2013 season.  He'll be working with a relatively green defensive unit in his make-or-break season as UVA's head coach.

That's it.  That's the best stab at an in-depth look at the four year trajectory of the program that I can muster.  Obviously, how the staff is able to close out the 2011 recruiting class will make a big impact in this overview, as will the CRUCIAL 2012 class.  Three or four instant impact defensive players at the linebacker and defensive back positions are absolute necessities in these two classes if we want to see our defense really take root and become a strength of the team.

I have faith in Coach London.

FOUR YEARS.  We have to give Mike London FOUR YEARS to get this thing rebuilt and heading in the right direction.  Judge his performace as Virginia's head coach after the 2013 season, and not a second sooner.

GO HOOS!