CE&R Update -- 6/10/10

"CE&R" is my new acronym. It stands for "conference expansion and realignment." Follow along! Keep up! Pay attention!

Here's a US map. It might help you better visualize this crap as we wade through it.



Okay, so the fresh-e-freshy in the rapidly-evolving world of conference CE&R is as follows:

-- Nebraska to the Big Ten. It's a done deal.

-- Colorado to the Pac-10. It's also a done deal.

-- Texas, A&M, TX Tech, Oklahoma, OK State to the Pac-10 also seems pretty likely. I'd handicap it at around 70% likelihood at this point. The main roadblock is the Texas government's concern over Baylor... which mirrors Mark Warner's concern over poor little Virginia Tech back in 2003. But the Pac-10 vehemently does not want Baylor, and it might end up being a total deal-breaker. Another stumbling point is the fact that the Pac-10 academic elite schools - Stanford, Cal-Berkley, and UCLA namely - don't want tier three academic schools like Oklahoma State in their conference. Money talks and bullshit walks, however. In the end, I think these five from the Big 12 South will join the Pac-10.

-- What will happen to the Big 12 leftovers? Kansas won't be left out in the cold, no way, no how. Some conference will scoop them up. K-State goes where the Jayhawks go, as I understand it. That leaves Missouri, Baylor, and Iowa State...

-- Mizzou is probably holding out for its invitation to join the Big Ten. That invitation may never come, if Notre Dame decides not to take the plunge. With just the addition of Nebraska, the B10 is at 12 teams, and doesn't need to expand and won't expand further unless it lands the big fish (read: The Fighting Irish.)

-- Maybe four of the five Big 12 leftovers will join forces with the Mountain West plus Boise State to form another 16-team SUPERCONFERENCE? TCU, BYU, Utah, Air Force, Wyoming, UNLV, SDSU, New Mexico, Colorado St., Boise, Kansas, K-State, Baylor, Missouri... they could stay put at 14, or move to snatch up a couple of schools like Houston, Nevada, Fresno State, and/or Tulsa to get to 16. That's not a bad little football conference, and Kansas alone (along with Mizzou, BYU, UNLV, K-State, and Baylor) gives it decent basketball cred. Plus, the Mountain West already has it's own network -- "The Mtn." The infrastructure is in place and the dominoes appear to be falling in the right directions for the MWC to be the biggest winner of all in the expansion hullabaloo, just by virtue of being patient and intelligent enough to cherry-pick the crumbling Big 12.

-- Poor Iowa State. Nobody seems to want the Cyclones. If the MWC, Pac-16, and Big Sixteen figure to be the biggest winners, ISU looks like the biggest loser. The Pac-16 doesn't have a spot for ISU. The B10/B12/B14/B16 doesn't have a spot for ISU. Even the new-look Mountain West doesn't have a spot for ISU. Conference USA for the Cyclones? Yikes.

-- Notre Dame to the Big Ten is the next major linchpin. I'd say that move is 50-50. Flip a coin on this one. If it happens, that puts the B10 at 13 schools, which means they would need to add one (Rutgers or Missouri), or three (Rutgers and Missouri, plus one of Syracuse, UConn, or maybe Maryland) to get to either 14 or 16. The ultimate fate of Missouri is thus tied very closely to ND's decision. For Mizzou, it's either join the Big Ten along with Nebraska, Notre Dame, and Rutgers, or scramble for a spot in the re-made Mountain West. That's a mighty big swing. I'm pretty frickin nervous if I'm a Mizzou fan right now.

-- Shunned by belle of the ball Texas, the SEC now seems content to stay at 12 and not expand. This is good news for the ACC. If the SEC changes its mind, however, look for Virginia Tech to be on their short list of candidates. VT potentially offers them entrance into a few good markets in the DC-Metro (#9 media market), Hampton Roads (#43), Richmond (#58), and Roanoke/Lynchburg (#67) areas. I could also see Florida State being a candidate for the SEC, though I'm sure Florida would do everything in its power to block that move. Miami, Clemson, and Georgia Tech make geographic sense for the SEC, but they only offer up redundant markets to what the SEC already has with Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia. I've heard NC State mentioned in connection with the SEC, also. Not buying that one at all.

-- So where does the ACC stand? Probably dodging all of this craziness, but potentially losing Maryland to the Big Ten, and potentially losing Virginia Tech or maybe FSU or NC State to the SEC. If we need to replace one school, I'd pounce on Pittsburgh. I think Pitt would be a slam dunk addition to our conference -- strong academics, good football, good football tradition, good basketball. If we need to add more than one, go for Syracuse or maybe UConn, depending on who the B10 takes. Beyond those three, I guess Louisville, ECU, or USF would be a marginal fit.


God, this is getting exhausting. But it's really lots of fun to follow.


Meanwhile, just for gits & shiggles, here is the ranking of the top 50 US media markets. I've connected a few dots and am listing the schools that successfully deliver those markets or shares of those markets.

#1 New York -- Rutgers? Syracuse? Army? Does NYC even give a fig about college football?

#2 LA -- USC & UCLA

#3 Chicago -- Northwestern & Illinois

#4 Philadelphia -- Temple? Ha ha ha ha ha! I'm thinking Penn State owns the Philly market.

#5 Dallas/Fort Worth -- Texas, obviously. But also TCU, Texas A&M, and to a lesser extent, Baylor and SMU.

#6 San Francisco Bay Area -- California and Stanford. San Jose State?

#7 Boston -- Boston College? Boston is a lot like New York. Not really a college football town.

#8 Atlanta -- Georgia & Georgia Tech

#9 Washington, DC -- Maryland, Virginia Tech, Penn State... and Virginia.

#10 Houston -- Texas and A&M again, but also Houston and Rice.

#11 Detroit -- Michigan

#12 Phoenix -- Arizona St. & Arizona

#13 Seattle -- Washington

#14 Tampa -- South Florida via location, but it's mostly a UF town.

#15 Minneapolis / St. Paul -- Minnesota

#16 Denver -- Colorado. Colorado State and Air Force are nibblers here.

#17 Miami -- Miami. Maybe also FIU, via location alone.

#18 Cleveland / Akron -- Ohio State! Kent State and Akron are also present, but it's all Buckeyes all the time in the state of Ohio.

#19 Orlando -- UCF via location, but from what I understand, Orlando is UF country.

#20 Sacramento -- Cal & Stanford

#21 St. Louis -- Missouri & Kansas

#22 Portland, Oregon -- Oregon & Oregon State

#23 Pittsburgh -- Penn State & Pitt

#24 Charlotte -- UNC, Duke, NC State, ECU

#25 Indianapolis -- Indiana

#26 Raleigh-Durham -- UNC, Duke, NC State, ECU

#27 Baltimore -- Maryland & Penn State

#28 San Diego -- SDSU, USC, UCLA

#29 Nashville -- Tennessee and Vanderbilt, with Middle Tennessee State gaining traction.

#30 Hartford -- UConn

#31 Salt Lake City -- BYU, Utah, Utah State

#32 Kansas City -- Kansas & Missouri

#33 Cincinnati -- Ohio State, Cincinnati, Miami (OH)

#34 Columbus, OH -- Ohio State

#35 Milwaukee -- Wisconsin

#36 Greenville / Spartanburg / Asheville / Anderson -- Clemson & South Carolina

#37 San Antonio -- Texas

#38 West Palm Beach -- FAU & Florida

#39 Harrisburg / Lancaster / Lebanon / York, PA -- Penn State

#40 Birmingham -- Alabama, with maybe a hint of UAB.

#41 Grand Rapids -- Michigan, with a faint whiff of Western Michigan.

#42 Las Vegas -- UNLV, and all other college football power programs that people enjoy betting on.

#43 Hampton Roads -- Virginia Tech & (hopefully) Virginia

#44 Albuquerque -- New Mexico

#45 Oklahoma City -- Oklahoma & Oklahoma St.

#46 Winston Salem -- Wake Forest + UNC, Duke, NC State, ECU

#47 Jacksonville -- Florida State & Florida

#48 Austin -- Texas, duh

#49 Louisville -- Louisville & Kentucky

#50 Memphis -- Memphis & Ole Miss


You can bet your ass that all of the movers and shakers in the CE&R world have a list like this in their hands. If you need to understand the motivation for certain moves, this should help.