One of my favorite magazines of the year is The Sporting News College Football Yearbook. Now that my fantasy football draft is over, I've had a couple of days to seduce my TSN college football magazine. After combing through the ACC content and studying the schedules of the twelve ACC schools, I'm ready to present to you my picks for the conference.
Atlantic Division:
Florida State -- 9-3 (6-2)
Clemson -- 8-4 (5-3)
Wake Forest -- 8-4 (5-3)
NC State -- 7-5 (3-5)
Boston College -- 4-8 (2-6)
Maryland -- 3-9 (1-7)
Coastal Division:
Virginia Tech -- 10-2 (7-1)
Miami -- 9-3 (6-2)
Georgia Tech -- 8-4 (4-4)
North Carolina -- 8-4 (4-4)
Virginia -- 6-6 (4-4)
Duke -- 4-8 (1-7)
ACC Championship Game: Virginia Tech over Florida State. I won't say the Hokies are "loaded" this year (I actually think they're woefully overrated), but every one of the Atlantic teams have glaring flaws. FSU will have too much youth and inexperience on defense to make it to the Orange Bowl.
Assorted thoughts and musings...
- Last year, parity ruled the ACC. I think it's similar this season, but with some cream rising to the top in FSU, VT, and Miami, and some turds sinking to the bottom in BC, Maryland, and Duke (and hopefully not UVA).
- I'm not drinking the NC State kool-aid. Not yet. Russell Wilson is good, but I'm not convinced he'll be able to stay healthy. The ACC schedule sets up unfavorably for the Pack, also.
- I'm a believer in Wake Forest and Clemson. I think pure coaching ability (Jim Grobe) and pure talent (Clemson's roster) will buoy these two teams, respectively.
- Way out here on the limb, I'm seeing BC falling apart. They've just lost so much, I really can't see them maintaining the high level of performance from the last few years.
- Maryland's defense and o-line will doom them this season.
- While Georgia Tech will be better running that flexbone offense in year two of the Paul Johnson era, I also think teams will be better at defending it, following LSU's (and to a lesser extent, UVA's) blueprint. I see them tripping up in a few "should win" games... like here in Charlottesville.
- Duke will win another ACC game this season -- October 24th against Maryland.
- It is now clear to me that UVA has settled into the bottom third of the league. I find this to be unacceptable. That being said, I think the TSN staff (and most, if not all of the national media) is taking the lazy route to just dismiss the Hoos this season. I'm trying to maintain realistic expectations, but I like our team on paper right now.
- The SEC has the talent, the Big 12 has the offensive fireworks, and the Big 10 has the tradition... but I'll take the ACC race over any of those.
- If this conference is developing an identity, I think it's got to be strong defense. Think about it... VT, FSU, and Miami are teams known for their tenacious playmaking defenses. Wake Forest and Boston College have a solid five-year trend of strong Ds. Everyone thinks of John Tenuta's blitz-happy defense when they think of Georgia Tech football in this decade. Clemson is always loaded with superior athletes on defense. UNC's defense will be the strength of its team this season. Ditto Virginia (in all likelihood.) Et cetera.
K- I'd like to discuss your thoughts about CW's and JO's predictions (both say 8-4).
ReplyDelete-Pierce
To get to 8 wins, we'd need to win the three "gimme" games -- W&M, Indiana, and Dook, and then five others. Where are those wins coming from? I already picked the Maryland, GT, and BC wins, so that's six. Two more... Maybe TCU? Maybe Southern Miss? Maybe UNC? Maybe [hopefully] VT? I think @ Miami and @ Clemson are near-certain losses.
ReplyDeleteEight wins is a big leap of faith. I could see 7 plus a bowl victory, but that's at the absolute upper reaches of my realistic look at this year's team.
I tend to agree with your assesment more, especially because neither Mr Wallace or Mr Oakes named which games were the wins (not that they were asked to). I don't think @ Clemson is a sure loss (paging Bryson Spinner), but we always lose one game a year that we're supposed to win, which is something to keep in mind.
ReplyDeleteAlso, it's important to remember that those guys have subscriptions to sell. Fans expecting another mediocre .500 type of season might not be so keen on forking over the $8.33/month to read about recruiting. Keeping expectations inflated puts money into their pockets.
ReplyDeleteNow I'm not accusing those two of any wrongdoing. If anything, they are two of my three or four favorite members of the UVA media junket. I just think they have too much of a stake in the success of the team to take their analysis as being strictly objective.