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August 10, 2009

UVA Sports Over/Under

For those of you non-Vegas types (crazily, there are some out there) and for everyone living in a cave, here's a quick Wiki entry to explain "over/under" betting:
An over-under or over/under bet is a wager in which a sportsbook will predict a number for a statistic in a given game (usually the combined score of the two teams), and bettors wager that the actual number in the game will be either higher or lower than that number. For example, in Super Bowl XXXIX, most Las Vegas casinos set the over-under for the score of the game at 46.0. A bettor could wager that the combined score of the two teams would be either more than or less than that number (as it happened, the combined score was 45, so anyone who had bet the under won).

Anyway, I thought it might be fun to do a series of over/unders on UVA sports as we head into the new academic year, followed by the way I'd bet these lines, if they were real. Enjoy.

Over/under -- UVA Football wins in 2009: SIX
I'm betting the OVER. I think we'll beat Navy in the EagleBank Bowl to win our 7th.

Over/under -- Al Groh's last season at UVA: 2010
UNDER. I think he gets shit-canned after this season. The fans are too sour for him to survive even a mediocre season of moderate success.

Over/under -- Number of times I'll curse Groh's name for slotting Vic Hall at cornerback until his last season in the program: 2 million.
Bet the OVER. Trust me on this.

Over/under -- Interceptions thrown by UVA quarterbacks in 2009 (as opposed to 20 in 2008): 20
OVER. This might be a run-first nohuddleshotgunspread offense, but the ball is still going up a lot. Add in Jameel Sewell's erratic arm and Marc Verica's penchant for the pick as two-thirds of the three-headed QB monster, and I see some interceptions coming this season.

Over/under -- Passing/receiving TDs generated by the UVA offense in 2009 (as opposed to just 9 in 2008): 20
OVER. Like I said, the ball is going airborn. For better or for worse.

Over/under -- Interceptions by Ras-I Dowling (three in '08): 5
I'll take the UNDER on this one. I think teams are going to try to run on us early and often, until our front seven proves itself. When they do pass the ball, they'll avoid #19's side of the field.

Over/under -- Kickoff or punt return TDs (ZERO in '08): 1
OVER. Against my better judgment, I believe in Ron Prince, and I believe that he just might have the so-called "magic touch" on special teams. K-State did great things in that arena under his watch. Plus, I like the young [speedy] athletes we'll be plugging into the return roles... especially Chase Minnifield returning kicks.

Over/under -- Sacks generated by the Orange Crush (24 in '08): 24
Take the UNDER. I like some of the pieces we're working with in the front seven, but we lack the big-time pass rush threats of years past. I don't see a Clint Sintim or a Chris Long anywhere on the roster, although Cam Johnson and Matt Conrath could come close, respectively.

Over/under -- ACC wins by UVA Basketball during the 2009-2010 season (four last year): SIX
Maybe I'm stupidly intoxicated by Tony Bennett's recent recruiting rampage, but I will take the OVER on this. I think a cohesive system and a coach that believes in them is all these players need to forge a respectable ACC outfit. Nothing ground-breaking, but I see 7 or 8 wins this season.

Over/under -- Number of seasons we get to enjoy Sylven Landesberg wearing the blue and orange: THREE
UNDER. I see Syl bolting for the pros after a great sophomore season.

Over/under -- Number of national championships won by UVA's collection of spring sports: ZERO
Bet the OVER. Between tennis, baseball, and lacrosse, we could see as many as three. Baseball, specifically, is well-positioned for another run to Omaha.

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