Win or else...

This week, I've been busy pondering all of the blog entries I'll unleash upon you between now and September 5th, when the 2009 version of UVA football kicks off against William & Mary.

I've got blogadoccio planned that will look at the upcoming schedule and predict wins and losses, drill down into the bedrock of the roster and make bold predictions about who will step up and who will leave us wanting, examine the upcoming league race and the ongoing football legacy of each of the ACC schools, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

But before we get to all of that, I want to just begin at the beginning. I think any sport's season (especially football) should begin with the fanbase clearly determining and defining its expectations for the upcoming campaign.

This exercise is doubly interesting for the Sea of Orange this season, because our head coach's future employment, in no uncertain terms, is tied directly to his team's ability to meet or exceed these expectations.

I don't profess to know exactly what the fanbase is thinking, nor do I know what the big-time donors expect from the team this season. What I do know, and what I present to you here, is what I expect and what it would take for Al Groh to save his job if I were the one in charge of making the decisions. So let's take a look at all of the possible levels of success (or failure, as it were) for the football team and the subsequent outcome for Al Groh's University of Virginia coaching career.

5 or fewer wins (including a loss to Virginia Tech)...
Hit the bricks. Pack your shit and leave.

5 or fewer wins (including a WIN over Tech)...
I'm glad you were able to land your white whale in the last game of the season, but it's still not good enough. Goodbye.

6 wins (including a loss to Tech and a loss in a crappy bowl game)...
Buh-bye.

6 wins (including a WIN over Tech)...
This, to me, is the fence. I could see keeping the man around after a season like this. A win over our most hated rival, plus an appearance in a bowl game. With a brand new offense in place, this would qualify as progress (albeit very minimal progress) from the 5-7 season in '08. The leash would stay tight, and Groh's seat would still be red-hot heading into 2010... but I think I'd let him keep his job after a 6-7 season that includes a victory over the Hokies. So that's one baseline -- six or more wins including a victory over Tech saves Al Groh's job. Beating the Hokies is very, very important for Al Groh this year. Understatement of the century.

7 wins (including a loss to Tech and a loss in a crappy bowl game)...
Close, but no cigar. Sorry coach, but you're shitcanned.

7 wins (including a loss to Tech and a WIN in a crappy bowl game)...
Wow, another tricky one. 6-6 in the regular season, and then a win over a team like Navy or Troy or Toledo a lower-tier bowl game? Naaaah, not quite good enough.

8 wins...
I actually think eight is the magic number. Win eight games this year, and Groh is back for 2010. It doesn't matter which games comprise the eight victories, as long as we get to eight.

9 wins...
Even better.

10 wins...
Double-digit victories, no matter when or where they come, not only saves Groh's job, but earns him his extension. Get him back to a standing four- or five-year contract, so he's no longer hamstrung in recruiting, and rest easy.


So there are your tiers -- 6 or 7 wins + a win over Tech / 8 or 9 wins / 10+ wins.

But wasn't this whole thing about expectations? Being realistic, what do I expect? 6 wins in the regular season, a loss to Tech, and a bowl game with Al Groh's coaching fate teetering in the balance. Get ready for grand drama, Eagle Bank Bowl!