Dookie

This is what I would call a "pivot" game. It's simple, really:

Beat Duke on Saturday = We solidify our footing and begin to rebound from a really bad three week span.

Lose to Duke on Saturday = Our season begins to spiral out of control.

There's really no in-between here. I hesitate to use this term, but this game against Duke is a MUST WIN.



Vegas installed UVA as a 5-point home favorite, over/under 44. So Vegas began the week expecting something like a 24-20 UVA win. But in the three days since, the line has been bet hard, and now stands at Virginia -3. So a 24-21 Virginia win, then.

I'm giving them the points and I'm hammering the Virginia bet in this game. At 3, 5, 7, 10, fuck it, 14. I think we come out with serious anger and intensity, and look to make a statement on our home field against a team with equal or lesser talent.

My pick: Virginia 38, Duke 14

Betting the Hoos and the OVER.

(My season to date: 5-1, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U)

I also want you guys to...

READ THIS.

Offensive?

I actually have something that might be a salient point.

A multi-tiered hypothesis / soapbox speech, really...

1) I can't think of any other mid-level P5 program with a head coach who came from the defensive side of that ball that employs an OC that runs an offense that the casual fan would say is "good" or "explosive" or "dynamic." The mid-level P5s with good offenses hired HCs from the offensive side of the ball. (Unless I'm missing something, which is enormously possible.)

2) Therefore, perhaps we are condemned to a ceiling of "just okay" offense under Bronco Mendenhall, by which we have to win games with defense and special teams while the offense merely treads water. Given this staff's clear ability to identify-recruit-develop talent (jury's out on OL, RB, PK talent, I'll grant you) and build a winning culture, we may just have to come to accept a mostly-mediocre offense, big picture.

3) Our pattern of quarterback recruiting points to valuing running ability over pure passing acumen. Limited passers yield a limited passing game, which in turn yields a conservative-style offense.

4) The gripes about playcalling and gameplanning are out there, numbering in the tens of thousands. But not many are grumbling about overall offensive design. Let me submit my grumble: If our offense is going to come third to the D and ST, if our offense is condemned to an average ceiling, and if our offense is committed to the dual-threat QB with the associated inherent passing limitations, we need to establish a strict spread-to-run system. We need to stop trying to do everything and start focusing on trying to do a few things really well; we need to begin sacrificing the failed premise of offensive versatility in order to focus on quick linemen, wide line splits, big receivers, wide running, option concepts, RPOs, play action, and short/intermediate controlled passing. (Anae built offenses like that in the past that were effective, but he's not succeeding here in Charlottesville.) Our recruiting wins are any OL rated above .850 (Hubbard, Christ, Gellerstedt) and/or developed over 4+ years in the program, any RBs with .875+ pedigree (Hollins is the closest so far, at .8626), any QBs with wheels (we're getting those now -- Armstrong, Harvey, Wentz, and Armstead all fit the bill), any slot receivers with speed/quickness (Kelly, Kemp, maybe Milledge), and any wideouts with 6-3+ height (Goddard, Beal, Lavel Davis). This offense needs to be conceived, designed, and built as the COMPLEMENTARY piece to the dynamic difference-making defense and special teams.

5) Hoofans need to understand points 1 thru 4, above, and enter the fray with a REALISTIC set of expectations for the Virginia Offense. Which is, in a few words --- to competently serve as a complement to the defense.

Notes from the Blue-White Scrimmage

I was at the scrimmage on Saturday. My notes/observations.....

Players capable of leading the team in scoring on any given night: Diakite, Huff, Woldetensae, Morsell, Key, in that order. No surprises there, I guess.

3-point shooters: Diakite, Huff, Woldetensae, Stattmann. Clark, Key, and Morsell can maybe get us a three from time to time. List ends there. But, wait, that's kind of a long list, so okay.

I think it’s possible that we have the best frontcourt in the country. No shit.

Relative to expectations, players who REALLY impressed me:

— Mamadi Diakite. My God. This is a complete, dynamic, NBA-ready MAN. He’s ready to average 15 & 8, and he’s clearly honed that perimeter shot while adding an array of hooks. First-team ACC. Reminiscent of Mike Scott's senior season, minus the fadeaway but adding a legit 3-point jumper and low post aggression.

— Kody Stattmann. I was really really impressed with his hustle and grit. Shot looks good. Reminds me of glue guys of the past, guys like Willie Dersch, Jason Williford, and late-career Evan Nolte. Didn’t see much of him handling the ball, but the defense was night-and-day better. He seems really bought-in to the concepts. Saturday, he topped the team in hustle, in my humble opinion. And that’s pretty big, and was completely unexpected. (Holy shit, I might be a Kody Stattmann stan.)

Relative to expectations, players who impressed me:

— Jay Huff. He’s ready for his star turn. Shot’s still there, defense is improved, positioning is improved, feet are quicker, upper body is stronger. Very excited about him on the verge of the season. There will - and should - be times when the offense runs through Jay.

— Tomas Woldetensae. This cat can shoot. He’s taller than I expected, but some of that may be his long neck and big hair. His point guard skills are apparent, which was a mild surprise to me, as I was expecting more of a pure 2-guard. He can facilitate the offense.

— Chase Coleman. Walk-on Kihei Clark. Small, quick, scrappy, tough. Played a lot, clear he’s quickly earned the team’s/coaches’ respect. Could see some game action in relief of what appears to be a thin backcourt.

— Casey Morsell. My expectations were high, and he met them. Mini-Brogdon, that’s about the best compliment I can give a young guard. Not sure about his shot from the perimeter, it didn’t feel pure... but the rest of his game is as-advertised or better, so I’m encouraged. You'll remember, Brogdon had a troubling "flat" shot his first year at UVA... Casey's shot isn't flat, it just seems like an effort to get it off. I'm spoiled from watching so much Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome recently.

— Jayden Nixon. Walk-on looks athletic (wild at times) and tough. Doubt he plays any meaningful minutes, but it is a thin backcourt.

Players who more or less played to my expectations:

— Francisco Caffaro. At one point I accidentally called him “Jack.” He’s maybe less wide/thick than Jack and slightly more skilled. Slightly. But the resemblance is uncanny. Defense not nearly as good as Jack’s, I should add.

— Kihei Clark. Same ol’ Kihei, which is not a bad thing. Still can’t shoot when he has time to get his brain involved in his shot. He seems to have superhuman premonition when it comes to tracking down loose balls that were tapped out by the initial rebounder (Kody is good at this, too). It’s an important skill for our 1-3 guys, because Mamadi and Jay are both really good at that tap. Anyway, I'm still worried about the offense bogging down when Kihei's in the game, but he makes up for all of that with his defense and all of the little things he'll do.

— Braxton Key. He still can’t shoot! But his defense and rebounding are great. He’s crafty on offense, I’ll give him that. I do believe he tops out at about 10 ppg as a scorer. Leadership presence seems to have grown. Diakite is the clear tone-setter, though... which could yield an edgier team than we’re used to seeing.

Players who slightly disappointed me:

— Justin McKoy. Seemed to float throughout the scrimmage, I never saw much aggression or assertiveness out of him. He was overshadowed by the players I’ve named above, and really seemed to disappear. The walk-ons had more of a presence in the game.

— Sam Hauser. He’s clearly very very skilled, and scored a lot, but he didn’t sparkle as much as I expected him to. I’m now certain that Jay Huff leaves early, so we’ll need to really lean on Hauser in 2020-21, and I don’t think he offers enough physical presence. You'll hear a lot about Hauser right now, about how good he looked on Saturday, that he was the best player on the floor, etc. Here's what I say: Not even close. He hit a lot of jumpers, but did nothing else. Diakite was - BY FAR - the best player on the floor. Huff #2. Then about 5 guys jockeying for #3... and I might go with Stattmann in that spot. Loved all the things he did. I'm a Stattmann stan.

— Kadin Shedrick. He reminded me of the 2016 version of Mamadi Diakite, which I guess isn’t really a bad thing. He needs to redshirt, but I like his upside more than Caffaro’s. By the way, we’ve come a long way from when we were recruiting a guy like Jarred Reuter. Give me the athletic upside of Shedrick every time.

I expect our starting lineup to be Clark / Stattmann / Key / Diakite / Huff, with Morsell, Woldetensae, Caffaro, and McKoy off the bench. Coleman and Nixon can play a deep rotation role, if needed. Shedrick redshirts.

GO HOOS!

Miami

It's been civil war on the 247 message board (JOIN that site, highly recommended), with one side digging in on trashing the o-line and offensive coaching staff and the other continuing to preach patience. Tremendous post from one of my favorite posters, Hoos Inc, that I wanted to share...

They want a scapegoat to rally against. And at this point we're literally making sh;t up that has been explicitly contradicted by the staff, like: we're rotating players to give them more experience at other positions to build depth. Nope. We're not. They've said why they're rotating guys, and it ain't that.

We're talking down OL recruiting when this staff has emphasized recruiting personnel in the trenches more than any staff in living memory, both through first years and grad transfers, every year.

We project this year's experience of rotation - which is due to injury and sub-optimal execution - onto the past, claiming the staff has always rotated this way when we played pretty much the same 5-6 all of last year.

We use ambiguous phrases no one can contradict like "recruiting projects not true linemen," whatever the hell that means. What exactly do 2-10 and 6-7 teams that have had one winning season in a decade recruit, usually? 4-stars? Yeah man, all we gotta do is get a class with a D'Brickashaw and an Albert and a Moses and we're set.

The fact is, if Gellerstedt doesn't get hurt, we're in a much better position with depth this year. He did, and we're in a bad position. We are one year away from having the bodies and depth to actually judge 2J. That's just being reasonable, and guys like Kendall have been right to point that out for a couple years now. One of our starting tackles is a 6'7" 280 pound true 2nd year who looks like a TE, our other is 6'10" 300lbs, and coming back from losing a ton of weight after nearly dying from heat stroke and spending a month in a coma. He started one game for us last year though....at TE. It's less than ideal.

Right now if there's any blame, it's on Anae's scheme and Perk's execution for not getting the ball out quicker, and we'll see what he does against Miami to change that. Bronco made some promising comments in that direction.

I am not some Pollyanna who's trying to say everything is sunshine and roses. I said repeatedly before the season that the OL would put the ceiling on what we could do, and how frustrating that was with so many other pieces in place. That was before Gellerstedt got hurt. I said before the ND game that I saw no hope for us winning that game with our OL's health situation what it was. I've commented on the weak median per rush performance of the running attack against Pitt and W&M, even when the game totals looked okay. I've agreed with guys like Hawk and Benkert that some tweaks to the offensive scheme could alleviate the pressure at the line of scrimmage. I'm acutely conscious of the reality of our OL and running situation. But that consciousness is rooted in the reality of our depth and experience, and that is fundamentally the consequence of the previous staff's criminal management of the roster and our recruiting slowly improving as our program's reputation climbs out of the septic tank of 21st century Virginia football. Given the time to develop players and the number of bodies needed, the OL will be the last position group to turn the corner in any program's development, and that's more true for us with the way London left it. And, looking at the roster, 2020 is the year that page turns. This is and always was going to be a year where there would be a mismatch between the level of our defense and skill positions vs OL, and the question was would we be able to get just enough out of the OL to put up a record that extends the program's momentum into a year where the OL should go from weakness to strength, and much of the other strengths remain.

That can still happen. ND we had injuries at spots we could ill afford them, and hopefully Olu is back at center this week and good to go. But even with this OL, 11-1 is a plausible outcome for this team, which would be the greatest season in program history. And it's not like our offense is completely anemic. Even with 4 yards rushing at ND, we outgained them 338-322 (granted they didn't need a couple drives thanks to the fumbles). The OL is frustrating as hell because it is the thing holding back this massive potential we all sense. I get that. But trying to pin it on one person and feeling like if we just ousted 2J or Anae everything'd be better, I call bullshit. You know how many yards playoff-contender UGA put up on ND, at home? 339. We got 338. And they have absolute monsters across their offensive front. There is a lot to like about our offense this year, and the things people like Hawkins, Benkert, and others have noted (that I completely agree with and have tried to share here and elsewhere) are constructive tweaks, rather than overhauls.

Any of us would have taken 4-1 to start the year. Yet we're starting shit-stirring threads praising one aspect of a Duke team that just got beat at home by a team we beat by sixteen on the road? Come on.


Fuckin-a.

So, yeah, Miami this week. Tonight, actually.

I fully expect that we've used the bye week to "fix" the offensive line and install more quick-release passing to mask their weaknesses.

Vegas curiously installed Miami as a 1-point favorite. Over/under is 43, therefore, Vegas is expecting a 22-21 Miami win.

WHATTTT?!??!!

Our defense is going to dominate this game, and we'll all see that the bye week has served us well.

My pick: Virginia 31, Miami 19

I'm betting on the Hoos, and I'm going with the OVER based on some late game garbage scoring. I honestly think this is a comfortable win for the Hoos.

(My season to date: 5-0, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U)

...

Notre Dame Pick

HUGE game tomorrow, but unfortunately no time for a proper post today. However, I need to get this pick out.....

Notre Dame is favored by 12.5, with an over/under of 48.5, therefore, Vegas is expecting a 30-18 type of win for the Irish.

I like our defense's chances of making it ugly and keeping it close, but ultimately our offense just doesn't have enough punch right now* to spring the upset on their home field.

My pick: Notre Dame 24, Virginia 13

(My season to date: 4-0, 3-1 ATS, 4-0 O/U)

* Yeah, our offense isn't clicking right now. A few reasons why, in no particular order:

1. Bryce Perkins clearly is not at 100%. He's still a dangerous runner, but the electric "suddenness" just isn't there.
2. The offensive line is banged up. And young. And individual linemen are being forced to rotate around between different roles too much. Add it up, and it's - STILL - a below-average OL. Ugh. I hate it. I just hate it. I hate watching offenses with bad line play. It sounds crazy to say this, but it's STILL Mike London's fault. We have zero senior OL, and only two juniors. That's a harsh indictment of our OL recruiting from five years ago, when London was still the coach.
3. The receivers aren't getting enough separation. I put this on them, and they as a unit had a bad game against ODU. We need all of Reed, Dubois, Jana, Chatman, Kemp, and Kelly to show up in South Bend.
4. Our backs appear to be ho-hum. But I suspect that's a symptom of #2, above, and #5, below.
5. Playcalling hasn't been bad, but also hasn't been anything above the "meh" level. I won't lambast Robert Anae like [too] many Hoofans are wont to do, but this offense is clearly begging for a tempo-based, pistol formation quick passing game. Keep Perkins in the pocket so he can get healthy, protect the OL by getting the ball out quickly and not asking them to do a ton of run blocking, and get the receivers in a better rhythm by feeding them a steady diet of short, easy completions.

Gotta get some of these things figured out, or we return to Charlottesville to play Duke at 4-2 and unranked in three weeks, despite a clear and obvious top-15 defense.

New Dominion

Dude.

1. Perkins, B pass complete to Dubois, H for 5 yards to the VA19 (Fagan,C).
2. Perkins, B pass complete to Cowley, T for 2 yards to the VA5 (Samuel,A).
3. Perkins, B pass complete to Jana, T for 15 yards to the VA40, 1ST DOWN VA (Samuel,A).
4. Perkins, B pass complete to Dubois, H for 6 yards to the VA46 (Jackson,D).
5. Perkins, B pass complete to Jana, T for 13 yards to the FS41, 1ST DOWN VA (Lars-Woodbey,J).
6. Perkins, B pass complete to Jana, T for 4 yards to the FS37, out-of-bounds (Samuel,A).
7. Perkins, B pass complete to Atkins, L for 2 yards to the FS35, out-of-bounds.
8. Perkins, B pass complete to Kemp, B for 7 yards to the FS20 (Robinson,J).
9. Perkins, B pass complete to Jana, T for 4 yards to the FS16, 1ST DOWN VA (Fagan,C).
10. Perkins, B pass complete to Reed, J for 4 yards to the FS12 (Warner,L;Taylor,L).
11. Perkins, B pass complete to Reed, J for 12 yards to the FS0, 1ST DOWN VA, TOUCHDOWN
12. Perkins, B pass complete to Jana, T for 9 yards to the VA34 (Warner,L).
13. Perkins, B pass complete to Jana, T for 12 yards to the VA46, 1ST DOWN VA (Samuel,A).
14. Perkins, B pass complete to Dubois, H for 7 yards to the FS34 (Samuels,S;Taylor,L).
15. Perkins, B pass incomplete to Chatman, T, dropped pass.
16. Perkins, B pass complete to Reed, J for 11 yards to the FS20, 1ST DOWN VA (Jackson,D).
17. Perkins, B pass complete to Reed, J for 9 yards to the FS2 (Taylor,L;Nasirildeen,H), PENALTY FS face mask (Nasirildeen,H) 1 yards to the FS1, 1ST DOWN VA.
18. Perkins, B pass incomplete to Reed, J.
19. Perkins, B pass complete to Dubois, H for 35 yards to the FS15, 1ST DOWN VA (Nasirildeen,H).

Dude.

That list was Bryce Perkins' second half passing performance against Florida State. 19 attempts, 17 completions (.895), one dropped pass (#15), one throw away (#18), 14 completions in a row, 8.26 yards per attempt. The yardage wasn't huge (157), but make no mistake, Perkins' passing in the second half is what allowed UVA's 3★ talent to punch above its weight class and knock out FSU's 4.5★ talent.

Now we're 3-0 on the young season, ranked #21, and rolling along as what appears to be the second- or third-best (behind Clemson and Wake Forest) team in the ACC.

By the way, here's 247's College Football Team Talent Composite for the entire ACC.

So... based on pure talent... as measured by raw recruiting rankings... we're 3-0 but still need to "punch above our weight class" six more times this season. Seven, if you include these guys:

But, look, I still think we're an 8- or 9-win team. We'll take some injuries, and we'll stumble a couple more times when our talent level just isn't quite commensurate with our opponents. Probably. Who knows? All I know is that it's damn fun to beat FSU and be ranked solidly in the top-25 at this point in the season.

And I'm not trying to create any consternation over our relative talent level. Because, look at our last two recruiting classes.....

2018

2019

The talent level is growing. And as I said before, Bronco Mendenhall delivered #30(ish) results with #60(ish) talent at BYU, so what happens at UVA when his talent level gets inside the top-40? We're getting there now, recruiting cycle over recruiting cycle, season over season.

The success we enjoyed last season, the success we're enjoying this season, it's SUSTAINABLE. And it's only the beginning.

~~~

Sticking with the theme of raw talent, the Hoos welcome ODU to town on Saturday night.

It's gonna be a bloodbath.

We're favored by a cool 30 points, with an over/under of 50. The wise guys think we win this game, 40-10.

ODU features the nation's #72 rushing offense, its #123 passing offense, its #34 rushing defense, and its #85 passing defense. I think we'll come out and challenge that #34-ranked unit, and try to pound the ball with Taulapapa and the gang while protecting Perkins and using the opportunity for a good "get right" game for the offensive line. Stop the run, force punts, run the ball, control the clock, grind out a lopsided win. I'm taking the Monarchs plus the points and I'm betting the UNDER.

My pick: Virginia 35, ODU 13

(My season to date: 3-0, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 O/U)

Notre Dame next week. That'll be a big one.

GO HOOS!

Jefferson-Eppes

The Jefferson-Eppes trophy is composed of an intricately wrought silver pitcher presented to the city of Tallahassee by Eppes in 1842 and set upon a wood base made of remains of the McGuffey Ash, which was once the largest tree on the Grounds of the University of Virginia but suffered a fatal tree disease in 1990. The trophy was designed by famed artist Ryan Parker.

After this, we aren't scheduled to play Florida State in a regular season ACC game until some point after the 2024 season. If the current rotation holds, it'll be 2025. But that's six years from now. So if we win on Saturday night, we get to hang on to the above-pictured bad bitch for a nice, long time. Let's bring that McGuffey Ash home!

But, look, we've only ever beaten them three times out of 18 tries since the trophy was conceived. The first of those times, in 1995, remains the fondest memory of my entire life -- and I'm happily married and the father to two wonderful children, and I witnessed the 2019 basketball national championship! But, nope, this night is the best memory of my life:

Okay, so for the first time ever (I think, but let's just go with it and not fact-check), we're favored against FSU. It's UVA -7.5, O/U 56.5 -- So Vegas thinks we'll win a 31-24 type of game. I do like Virginia to win outright, but we're giving too many points. I like Florida State with the points and I'm taking the OVER in this game.

My pick: Virginia 33, Florida State 28
(See what I did there?)

(My season to date: 2-0, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U)

I put the cart before the horse in this post, but whatever.

I have a question to answer re: Mike London, after a little self-scouting as we head into this bellwether game against a desperate FSU team. But first, a quick bucket of cold water to dump over your heads.

247 Sports has this College Football Team Talent Composite thing they put together, based on recruiting rankings of the players on the rosters of the teams in the FBS. Take a look...

There's an awful lot to be said for coaching and leadership and systems and toughness and development and intangibles and all of that good crunchy shit, but the bottom line is FSU comes to town with 4 and 5★ talent, and we're countering them with 3★ talent. So if we lose this game - not saying we're going to lose, just saying it's possible - if we lose this game, please do not stress and do not turn on this team or program. 4★ QB James Blackman could catch fire or 5★ running back Cam Akers could explode or 5★ defensive end Joshua Kaindoh could single-handedly wreck our offensive gameplan or 4★ defensive back Hamsah Nasirildeen could snatch a couple of takeaways or 4★ receivers Tamorrion Terry and D.J. Matthews could kill us deep or anything else that happens when you face off against top-10 talent could happen. I think you get my point. We're well equipped to do so, but we're still punching above our weight class in this game.

Now, that being said, Florida State sucks. These fuckers almost lost on their home field to UL-Monroe this past weekend. I think we've got our proverbial act together while they are imploding in slow motion. Chief Osceola stabbed that flaming spear into the turf, and then four hours later the Semenholes needed UL-Fucking-Monroe to shank a PAT in order for FSU to win in overtime. C'mon.

Everything is not perfect with our team, though. Far from it. I'm sticking with my prediction of a 9-3 regular season. Here's a quick position-by-position [shallow] dive into why I'm merely sipping thirsty at the kool-aid and not chugging it down full-throat.

Quarterback
Bryce Perkins is nursing a knee injury and wearing a brace. His quickness and suddenness has clearly been affected. And he seems to be forcing some of his throws, specifically when Terrell Chatman is the target. He seems mortal. That scares me.

Running Back
After sitting out W&M with a minor injury, Wayne Taulapapa is back as our RB1 for FSU. I love him, and soon you will too. It won't/shouldn't be long til Mike Hollins is our RB2, or even RB1a. He's legit, and I've heard Thomas Jones and Emmit Smith comparisons. Still, this backfield is not settled or established. That worries me. In a game where controlling the ball will be important, that worries me.

Wide Receiver
I think we have something in Chatman. Joe Reed is looking like our WR1. Hasise Dubois is looking good and getting open. Terrell Jana is an outstanding tertiary target. And we haven't even seen the destruction TK and Billy Kemp can wreak from the slot. I'm excited to see more from the ensemble, and I think we'll need a few big plays from these guys this week.

Offensive Line
We seem to be settled with the Swoboda/Nelson/Oluwatimi/Glaser/Reinkensmeyer (L to R) line for now, and I like it. Let that unit gel. I think it'll look better week over week. But this week? It's still a weakness, overall.

Defensive Line
Fantastic. But they'll have their hands full trying to contain Akers and pressure Blackman this week. Controlling [dominating] the LOS is easier against W&M's guys than it will be against FSU's collection of studs.

Linebacker
Need more blitzing from the edge. So far, the OLBs only have 2.5 sacks (compared to 4 from the ILBs and 3.5 from the secondary). That number of sacks and pressures provided by Snowden, Brown, and Taylor has to rise, because we need Mack and Zandier home to defend Akers and the secondary home to defend these 4★ speed merchants FSU has at receiver.

Safety
Blount, Nelson, and Cross, wow. Major, major, MAJOR strength of the team right now. Could really use a pick against FSU, guys.

Cornerback
Okay, I like Nick Grant. He's getting the job done. Need some big Bryce Hall moments against the Noles.

Special Teams
Excellent. Keep it up. No fuck-ups against FSU, please.

GO HOOS!


Okay, one last thing. I got a question this week from a reader:

Why do you hate Mike London so much?

The answer is pretty simple. Although Littlepage and [especially] Jon Oliver deserve a ton of the blame, Mike London went 27-46 in six seasons as our head coach. That's a .370 mark. That is... fucking horrendous. And on top of that, he failed to land any good quarterbacks, negligently failed to properly stock the lines (especially the OL), fostered a destructive culture of lazy entitlement, and left the program in much worse shape than where he found it. So, yeah, I hate Mike London. He took something I love - Virginia Football - and drove it into a crater.

The 52-17 beatdown of William & Mary felt good, but my hunger for vengeance is not yet sated. We get the Tribe again in 2021 and 2023, and - if London survives as their coach that long - I look for us to pile-drive them in those games, too. Maybe then it'll be enough to satisfy me.

No Mercy

Derp.

Others may have forgiven him because "he's such a great guy," but I haven't forgotten the 2012, 2013, 2014, or 2015 seasons, nor have I forgotten the gaping holes we had at the quarterback position and along the offensive line due to his recruiting negligence. 2016 sucked because of the mess he left behind, including the laissez-faire country club culture prevalent in the Virginia locker room. Our program was soft because he made us soft.

And I'm still bitter.

Let me remind you of these games so you can be bitter, too!

• 2012: 44-38 home loss to Louisiana Tech
• 2013: 48-27 home loss to Ball State (that was my personal breaking point)
• 2014: 28-27 home loss to UNC
• also 2014: 24-20 loss to Virginia Tech (I think this was most everyone else's breaking point)
• 2015: 56-14 home loss to Boise State

And now he returns to Scott Stadium as the coach of William and Mary.

No mercy, Hoos. Run up the score.

~~~

The Tribe runs something called a "go-go" offense, which looks like a quick-snap double wing triple option type of thing, kinda sorta. (It's not a terrible offensive approach for them.) We need to stop the run with our killer DL and linebacking corps, while getting our own running game going between the tackles (PAPA!) Force their young running QB to make difficult throws under duress while taking the ball (and the pressure) off of our otherworldly talent at QB. We have the edge in almost every discernible category, so we really just need to go out there in Friday night primetime and flex nuts. Grind them down, steal their wind, and then take their hearts. It's a good chance for the OL to gel and for some of the younger role players to dip their wicks.

The line is 33 points with an over/under of 45. Essentially, Vegas is predicting a 39-6 win for the Hoos. Not good enough. We need to break 45 while holding them under 10. In other words, I want annihilation. I want a 56-3 type of bloodbath.

Not sure we'll get that, because Bronco's a classy guy who'll call off the dogs.

My pick: Virginia 38, William & Mary 14.

Take W&M and the points, but bet the over.

(My season to date: 1-0, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U)

Launch Point: 2019 Virginia Football Preview, the Defense

Picking up from where I left off yesterday...

Damn, we're finna have a downright NAAASTY defense. Three A's in nasty.

Defensive Line

Starters: #58 Eli Hanback / senior, #16 Richard Burney / senior, #99 Jowon Briggs / true freshman

Backup(s): #91 Mandy Alonso / junior, #94 Aaron Faumui / sophomore, #76 Jordan Redmond / sophomore

Others: #50 Tommy Christ / sophomore, #95 Ben Smiley III / true freshman, Isaac Buell / sophomore

#SILVERBACKS

Outlook: The Silverbacks (DL) are a lot like the Rhinos (OL), completely flipping what was a weakness of the recent past into a strength. This is a position group laden with quality depth. Two differences between the 2019 DL and the 2019 OL: 1) The Silverbacks have two senior leaders in Hanback and Burney, and 2) the Silverbacks have a guy with certain Aaron Donald-ish star potential, true freshman Jowon Briggs.

Don't get yourself too hung up on positions or anything other than this -- Can this group stop the run and can this group apply some interior pass rush pressure? I believe it's a resounding yes on both fronts, especially considering what should be a nine-man rotation allowing everyone to play fresh. And angry. Angry waves of brutal punishment crashing down upon the opponents' offense.

Remember, last year, we somehow made due with just 3-5 healthy bodies, including two guys who were true freshmen at the time in Faumui and Redmond. In a perfect world, those guys would have redshirted... but... the experience they gained should accelerate their growth.

Hanback's a battler who will set the tone, Burney adds in strength and athleticism, Briggs brings next-level ability, the Alonso/Faumui/Redmond trio are starter-quality backups, and true frosh Smiley can rotate in and add some oompf. Jury's out on Christ and even more so Buell, but those two will have a chance to sparkle in spot duty.

Nine guys, all of them good, all of them ready to perform. Wow. We've come a long way from 2018's season-long war of attrition.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 10
For my money, this is the best spot on the team heading into the season opener. Of our nine guys who figure to factor into the rotation, I think at least four have NFL futures. The headliner is going to be Briggs, but the other guys are damn good, too.

Linebacker

Starters: #4 Jordan Mack / senior, #11 Charles Snowden / junior, #33 Zane Zandier / junior,  #14 Noah Taylor / sophomore

Backup(s): #22 Robert Snyder / junior, #17 Elliott Brown / junior, #42 Nick Jackson / true freshman, #56 Matt Gahm / junior

Others: #45 Reed Kellam / senior, #98 D'Sean Perry / true freshman, T.C. Harrison / redshirt freshman, #66 Jairus Satiu / true freshman, #93 Hunter Stewart / true freshman

Outlook: This is another position group where Hoofans should be feeling good about the ability level and depth. Jordan Mack is a king thumper in the middle of our defense. Zane Zandier, "ZZ Stop," is a tone-setter for the type of evil, mean-spirited energy you need at the heart of a good, strong, intimidating defense. He's a real motherfucker, and I mean that as an absolute compliment. Meanwhile, if I were buying a football jersey for this season, it'd be #11. I think Charles Snowden is our breakout star of the season... and I think he'll have the chance to bolt for the NFL after his junior season at UVA. The fourth starter is Noah Taylor, who's been a stud in all of the offseason work. This is one helluva starting quartet.....

.....and there's not a huge drop-off to the second unit. Snyder is a less violent, more consistent Zandier, Brown is a clear understudy and heir apparent to Snowden, basically a xerox copy of Snowden, Gahm brings pass rush upside to the mix, and true frosh Jackson brings good pedigree and nice recruiting rankings to the fold.

The first of my two concerns lies deeper on the roster -- If injuries pile up at linebacker, I'm not sure our young guys will be ready for prime time.

My second concern is pass rush. These OLBs have to generate the edge pressure. I feel confident in Snowden and Gahm, less so the others.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 8
Mack, Zandier, Snowden, Taylor, goosebumps. Snyder, Brown, Jackson, Gahm, it's a small drop-off. But after that, who the hell knows? Plus, we need two more guys to step up as edge rushers beyond Snowden and Gahm. Brown is an obvious candidate. But who else?

Still, this is a group we should be feeling really good about rolling into the season opener. It's much less of a projection than was needed at running back and wide receiver.

Safety / Sabre

Starters: #28 Brenton Nelson / junior, #29 Joey Blount / junior

Backup(s): #15 De'Vante Cross / junior, #7 Chris Moore / junior

Others: #25 Joseph White / redshirt freshman, #60 Chayce Chalmers / true freshman, #30 Antonio Clary / true freshman

Outlook: Look, none of these guys are Juan Thornhill. As the Chiefs are discovering, Juan is a special, special talent and a special, special guy. None of these guys are Juan Thornhill. But in Nelson and Blount, we have two ACC-quality starting safeties. Nelson is your coverage guy while Blount is your centerfielder. There's a nice mesh between those two skillsets. Chris Moore factors into the linebacker mix, as he's kind of a coverage-savvy chess piece the staff can move around the defense. Cross, meanwhile, has a ton of talent and is finally settled in and developing at a set position after bouncing around the quarterbacks and receivers rooms as an underclassman. I'm confident in our top four guys. The deeper reserve, however, features nothing but newcomers. I'm sure we'll like what we see if/when they hit the field, but at this point it's all unknown.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 7
I'd compare the safeties to the running backs, and I don't really see a future can't-miss NFL guy in the mix at this point, though Nelson and Blount will both have a chance.

Cornerback

Starters: #34 Bryce Hall / senior, #1 Nick Grant / junior

Backup(s): #23 Heskin Smith / sophomore, #39 Jaylon Baker / redshirt freshman

Others: #41 Germane Crowell / sophomore, #90 Major Williams / true freshman, #53 Fentrell Cypress II / true freshman, #92 Tenyeh Dixon / true freshman

Outlook: Losing projected starter Darrius Bratton for the season really hurts. Now training camp star Nick Grant is in the spotlight. He has to make plays as offenses throw away from our all-world corner Bryce Hall.

If I were an offensive coordinator gameplanning how to attack the 2019 UVA defense, I'd be looking to do it with perimeter runs to set up play action attacks deep to Grant's side of the field. Test our pass rush and our downfield coverage ability. It's up to our neophyte edge rush and Grant to shut that shit down.

Unfortunately, the non-Hall corners have to be considered the weakest part of our team, until proven otherwise.

There's talent here (looking for Crowell, specifically, to get back in the groove after his injures), and it's about to be tested.

Thank God for Bryce Hall.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 10+++ for Hall, 5 for the other guys
I'm willing to drink the Nick Grant kool-aid, but my eyes will be glued to his #1 jersey Saturday night against Pitt. Plus, we need some of these young dudes to bubble up in nickel, dime, and reserve roles. It's unequivocally the weakness of our defense, in much the same way the defensive line was last year.

So there you have it.

I'm retired from talking about kickers and punters, but it sounds like Nash Griffin (punter), Brian Delaney (K/P), and Justin Duenkel have us on solid footing heading into the fall. Joe Reed returning kicks and TK returning punts gives us two nice weapons on the return units. All of our linebacking depth gives our coverage units a nice bedrock foundation (one of the benefits of running a base 3-4).

Kickoff is 7:00 Saturday night at Pitt. I think Bronco put it best:

"Pitt has been the more physical team in the previous three years, especially in the trenches on both sides. Pitt's offense and defensive front have controlled the game in each of the past three matchups, so there is a physical component, but then certainly an intensity that has to be played with from the beginning to end. Can't be bits and pieces and can't be streaks here or there or series here or there. I think Pitt has done a nice job in that area in our first three matchups, so my message has been consistent."

We hear you loud and clear, coach. We need to go out and punch them in the mouth.

I'm looking forward to it.

GO HOOS!


The line is UVA -2.5 with an over/under of 47. Essentially, Vegas is predicting a 25-22 win for the Hoos. It'll be much lower scoring than that, and I think we'll beat that spread.

My pick: Virginia 24, Pittsburgh 10.

Lay the points, take the Hoos, and bet the under.

Gameday Enhancements!

Alcohol Sales, Cheap/Free Water, Lyft Access, and the Death of the Adventures of Cavman!

Launch Point: 2019 Virginia Football Preview, the Offense

"This really feels like a launch point now."

~Bronco Mendenhall

That quote came from the Big Whistle himself, after being asked about the level of talent, ability, depth, and consistency present in the program at this point, on the eve of Year Four. That's got to make you feel pretty good, right Hoofans?

Here's the whole quote:

Looking at the depth chart I think there are only four or five guys you didn't recruit. Going into year four, how much does this look like a Bronco Mendenhall team?

"I think I said and established at the end of the bowl game last year is this is just the beginning. This feels like baseline for me for launching our program. That doesn't mean the past three years don't count. We've worked really hard and I'm accountable for every result that's happened, the positives and the negatives and the trajectory. It really feels like a launch point now with players that we've selected with an outcome from a year ago that felt normal to us as a staff and a program to really now go from there to wherever we're going to go. So I'm much more comfortable just because of how the players have been selected, why they've been selected in relation to what schemes, and now some consistency that's been built up to go forward from."

Translation: The roster is built, this is the baseline, this is the launch point as we blast off toward future success.

Fuckin-a.

Anyway, Pitt on Saturday (on the ACC Network, which you probably don't yet have access to!) is our first chance to see what kind of continuity we'll have from a mostly-successful 2018 season into 2019 and beyond.

Let's go ahead and tackle the tried and true position-by-position preview. DON'T WORRY! I'M NOT GOING TO SAY A BUNCH OF STUFF YOU ALREADY KNOW.

Oh, and here's the game week depth chart.

Let's do it!

Quarterback

Starter: #3 Bryce Perkins / senior

Backup(s): #10 Brennan Armstrong / redshirt freshman

Others: #36 Lindell Stone / sophomore

Outlook: B-Perk set school records in 2018 with his 3,603 yards of offense and 34 touchdowns. His 2,680 passing yards and 923 rushing yards placed him alongside Kyler Murray as the only quarterbacks to eclipse the 2,500 passing and 900 rushing marks in 2018. B-Perk is a stud. In 2019, we'll be looking for him to improve a bit with his complex reads (aka hitting on his second and third reads) and his downfield accuracy in the intermediate and deep passing game, while maybe becoming a bit more judicious with his running. But make no mistake -- Perkins is our best quarterback since Marques Hagans, and it's not close. His diverse skillset will provide the engine for our offense in 2019.

In reserve, Armstrong offers great upside and a bright future. In fact, I'd be feeling pretty comfortable and confident if - God forbid - Perkins had to miss any time this season. Armstrong is a dual threat, but might be a better pure passer although definitely a less dynamic runner than Perk.

Note: I do think Perkins gets drafted in April 2020.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 8.5
This would be a 9.8 or 9.9 if Perkins were guaranteed to stay healthy. He's a stud. He's a star.

Running Back

Starter: #21 Wayne Taulapapa / sophomore

Backup(s): #6 P.K. Kier / junior

Others: #5 Lamont Atkins / junior, #20 Mike Hollins / true freshman, #31 Chris Sharp / senior, #27 Jamari Peacock / senior

Outlook: This has been a four-horse race between Taulapapa, Kier, Atkins, and Hollins, and the backfield might end up being a four-headed hydra all season long. Taulapapa has a versatile set of skills and runs with a certain... purposeful violence?... that I think Hoofans will love. He'll be the first head of the hydra to strike at our enemies. Kier is a Jordan Ellis-y between the tackles plodder. I'm less excited about the upside of our offense if he's getting a ton of carries, though he could offer good utility as a short yardage power back. Atkins is more like Taulapapa in that he's a receiving threat and a guy who can bounce runs outside and go the distance. Hollins, meanwhile, is a power-and-balance type who has great workhorse potential ala Rudi Johnson of Bengals lore. I think all four will play this season, and my guess is that Taulapapa and Hollins end up leading the group in touches. (Please note that I said "touches" and not necessarily carries! I think Taulapapa and Atkins will each catch a bunch of passes, a complexion of the offense that Jordan Ellis didn't really offer in 2018.)

Peacock appears to have been developed as a traditional fullback-type, to date only used as a lead blocker. We'll see if he gets any power/leverage carries in 2019. Sharp is a try-hard gadget guy who has endeared himself to his coaches and teammates with his work ethic. These two are situational guys who'll see the field plenty and play their roles.

We have quantity in the backfield, we just need to see the quality gel from the abundance of numbers. It might help if one or two of these backs step up and take over "lead dog" roles. In that vein, I think that by the end of this season we'll be feeling pretty good about the Taulapapa/Hollins combo. 

Here's an important point: We need good, explosive, dynamic backs to earn carries, move the chains, and break big runs in order to keep Perkins' carries down and help keep him healthy. It's a critical piece to the puzzle that needs to click into place in 2019.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 7
I have a lot of faith in Taulapapa, who reminds me of the tough-guy BYU backs Bronco had during his time in Provo; think Harvey Unga, Jamaal Williams, and Curtis Brown, churning grinders who excelled when barreling through contact.

Prepare for Papa's star turn, Hoofans.

Wide Receiver

Starters: #8 Hasise Dubois / senior, #2 Joe Reed / senior, #13 Terrell Jana / junior, #88 Tavares Kelly Jr. / sophomore

Backup(s): #9 Terrell Chatman / senior, #80 Billy Kemp IV / sophomore, #84 Dorien Goddard / true freshman, #89 Dejon Brissett / senior

Others: #87 Dontayvion Wicks / true freshman, #19 Chuck Davis / junior, #86 Ugo Obasi / sophomore, #18 Ben Hogg / senior, #51 Jalen Harrison / junior

Outlook: I just listed thirteen receivers, and I think all of them are going to play on offense at times this season. In other words, ENSEMBLE. The top four guys will be the linchpins, however, with Dubois the most likely to fill the "go-to guy" role for B-Perk. Reed's the deep threat and gadget guy, Jana's the advanced-level route runner, and TK is the explosive jitterbug from the slot. Each fills an important role, and I do think we'll see a lot of four-wide (and five-wide / empty backfield!) sets this fall. Rotating in will be big play weapon Chatman, slot machine Kemp, big-bodied powerwide Goddard, and explosive playmaker Brissett. And then rotating in after them will be future #1 Wicks, quick and wily Chuck Davis, upside-oozy Ugo Obasi, reliable-handed Ben Hogg, and speedy Jalen Harrison.

We have a ton of talent at wideout. No one can debate that. The problem is, the pecking order has yet to be decided, and maybe there aren't any stars for which defenses know they have to prepare. But maybe that's an advantage for us?

Here are last year's receiving stats.

Oz is gone, vacating 1,058 yards and 9 touchdowns. Dubois and Reed could each flirt with the 1,000-yard mark, and I'm expecting big jumps on this list from Jana and Kelly (to around the 400-500 yard level), along with the appearance of a host of newcomers to the rotation -- Chatman, Kemp, Goddard, Brissett, and Wicks. Replacing Zaccheaus' production is going to be a group project.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 7.5
I'm bullish on our top four guys, confident in our next four, and excited about a couple of guys after that (Wicks and Obasi). The playable depth is abundant at wide receiver, and we have the high level of quarterback play required to take full advantage of a mixed and varied fleet of receiving talent.

Tight End

Starter: #44 Tanner Cowley / senior

Backup(s): #85 Grant Misch / redshirt freshman

Others: #46 Christian Baumgardner / junior

Outlook: The tight end is strictly a role player in the Virginia offense. Our top tight end last season, Evan Butts, went 16-141-2, and that's about what I'd expect for Cowley this season. Give us some toughness and good in-line blocking, catch a few passes, convert in leverage situations, and Hoofans will be happy.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 4
I kinda think Cowley is a less-good version of Butts, and this position continues to be minimized in the Mendenhall era. It's fading away from the Virginia offense. I'm not sad about it, especially considering the ten wide receivers I'm so high on. Spread the field, baby.

This is - by far - my favorite picture from training camp.
That's a lot of capable bodies. Brings a tear to my eye.

Offensive Line

Starters (LT to RT): #54 Ryan Nelson / sophomore, #69 Chris Glaser / junior, #55 Olusegun Oluwatimi / sophomore, #79 Dillon Reinkensmeyer / junior, #72 Ryan Swoboda / sophomore

Backup(s): #70 Bobby Haskins / sophomore, #52 Joe Bissinger / redshirt freshman, #63 Tyler Fannin / sophomore, #75 Ja'Quay Hubbard / true freshman, #67 Derek Devine / redshirt freshman

Others: #64 Ben Trent / junior, Gerrik Vollmer / sophomore, Martin Weisz / redshirt freshman

Outlook: It's a young line by eligibility standards (no seniors, a bunch of guys with multiple years of eligibility remaining), but it has some hard-earned experience. Bottom line -- the biggest, hardest-sucking hole Mike London left in our roster has been filled, and the youth it was filled by is only now starting to emerge as a cohesive unit.

I actually really like the o-line preview provided by Paul Guttman at Streaking the Lawn. Go read that and meet me back here...

Virginia Football Unit Previews: Offensive Line

Paul raises a fantastic point; six OL drafted into the NFL from 1990-1999, six OL drafted into the NFL from 2000-2009, three drafted into the NFL from 2010-2019... and that's really the root of the reason we did so much losing in the span from 2012-2016. I believe in my heart of hearts - and you know I tend to the optimistic side, so take this with a grain of salt - but I believe that we have FOUR next-level linemen in this season's two-deep. I won't name names, but I really like these top ten guys, and I think we'll see the best overall line play we've seen since the vintage Groh years (think 2004) and the mid-'90s under Coach Welsh.

And next year, 2020, it'll be even better.

Offensive line is a strength of the team, y'all. That's what recruiting numbers, proper roster planning, faithful development of talent, and building the right culture can earn you. And if you have a strong and deep offensive line, you'll be a relevant program in college football. Hallelujah.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 9
The only reason it's not a 10 is because of a lack of senior leaders and because we may be running a bit light on true offensive tackles who can blindside protect on an island.

Oh, and you need to read this, too.....

Standing Tall: Swoboda Overcomes Life-Threatening Ordeal

Up next: The defense!

But first... something to read while you're watching Thursday night football tonight.

From Darden Business Publishing:

Butts in Seats:

Helping the UVA Athletics Department Fill Scott Stadium