December 8, 2016

Kyle Guy Should Start Over Devon Hall

Our basketball team is like a football team without a running game. We better have a potent aerial attack (perimeter shooting) if we want to score enough to win. All arrows point to Kyle Guy.

Points per Minute / Points per 40 Minutes:
1 Shayok -- 0.527ppm, 21.1 p/40
2 Guy -- 0.506ppm, 20.3 p/40
3 Reuter -- 0.415ppm, 16.6 p/40
4 Diakite -- 0.406ppm, 16.3 p/40
5 Thompson -- 0.377ppm, 15.1 p/40
6 Perrantes -- 0.353ppm, 14.1 p/40
7 Salt -- 0.257ppm, 10.3 p/40
8 Wilkins -- 0.252ppm, 10.1 p/40
9 Jerome -- 0.247, 9.9 p/40
10 Hall -- 0.227ppm, 9.1 p/40

This is not bullshit -- Hall is the worst offensive player in our 10-man rotation. Of course, there's something to be said for efficiency, whatever, whatever, but you miss 100% of the shots you do not take (or whatever that cheesy adage is).

Other takeaways...

-- We need more from Perrantes. Gotta have it. He needs to be in the top 3 of that list.

-- This team will not score enough to win without Kyle Guy and Marial Shayok. At least one of those two needs to be on the floor at all times. One of them needs to start.

-- I'm ecouraged by the production of Reuter and Salt. Go ahead and pencil me into the camp of wanting to see more playing time for Reuter. 16mpg is not enough.

-- Wilkins really should be able to score a bit more than he is. It's a liability, though not as damning as with Hall.

-- This team is really, really fun to debate about. The amoeba-style ensemble offense is intriguing as hell.

-- I still think we might be closer to the bubble than many would like to admit.

-- Of course, you probably want to see the...

Efficiency numbers... True Shooting Percentage (including 2 pointers, 3 pointers and free throws) / Usage % (an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor):
1 Kyle Guy -- 71.3% / 21.2%
2 Jarred Reuter -- 69.2% / 21.3%
3 Mamadi Diakite -- 63.7% / 18.7%
4 Isaiah Wilkins -- 63.4% / 13.9%
5 Darius Thompson -- 62.9% / 21.1%
6 Jack Salt -- 59.3% / 14.5%
7 London Perrantes -- 58.1% / 20.5%
8 Ty Jerome -- 57.1% / 16.8%
9 Marial Shayok -- 51.1% / 31.4%
10 Devon Hall -- 44.8% / 16.7%

Efficiency absolutely matters, and no doubt it's the most important ingredient in Bennettball's successful offensive recipe. But look at the numbers! Pretty clear that Guy should be getting more playing time and more shots. Pretty clear that Reuter should be beginning to eat into Wilkins' minutes. Pretty clear that keeping the lid on Diakite is a big mistake.

Take the PPM and P/40 numbers coupled with the true shooting % and usage % , and then look at shots per game (Field Goals Attempted)...
1 Shayok -- 76 fga
2 Perrantes -- 74 fga
3 Thompson -- 56 fga
4 Hall -- 46 fga
5 Guy -- 45 fga
6 Wilkins -- 38 fga
7 Reuter -- 35 fga
8 Diakite -- 34 fga
9 Salt -- 33 fga
10 Jerome -- 16 fga


-- Kyle Guy should start, should see as much playing time as he can handle, and should lead the team in field goal attempts. Period.

-- Marial Shayok has been woefully inefficient with very heavy usage. Not sure what can be done about that, as he's really our best dribble-drive weapon. I think he just sorta needs to work through it while coming off the bench to play ~20 mpg.

-- Devon Hall to the bench, should be #9 in mpg.

-- More minutes and more shots for Reuter.

Is Kyle Guy on his way to breaking the UVA career record for three pointers made?  13 down, 400 to go (to tie Curtis Staples' record for made threes).  Keep track of the chase with the patented Wahooze Kyle Guy Threetracker, at the top of the sidebar to the right!

Fucking rad that Kyle Guy wears the same #5.

Last point: I'm starting to fall in love with what Jack Salt brings to the table in terms of providing a physical presence. I'm surprised, because coming into the season I was probably the biggest Salt-naysayer around. Happy to eat the crow on that one!


  1. great post, loving seeing some numbers laid out

  2. Aren't these mostly offensive metrics ?
    Isn't defense supposed to be a big deal with us ?
    I guess defensive quantities are harder to come by.

    1. Good point. Defense is much harder to evaluate, as well as being side of the coin that is most-often overlooked by fans.

      That said, I think Guy will eventually be ok on defense.

  3. I love Guy, but there's still some situations that he isn't physically ready for. For instance, when we had him in against WVU and we were trying to inbound to him, he simply isn't strong enough yet to push his way open and we couldn't inbound the ball.

    Unfortunately as we get into ACC play, I think those situations where you have to play physical will get more common. I think it will still take at least one more year of Mike Curtis before he becomes the absolute monster he can be.