Spring Forward

I hqave about 10 minutes this afternoon to hammer out a quick post in advance of Selection Sunday, so here goes...

Tonight vs. Miami doesn't matter at all.  I mean, OF COURSE I'd like to see us win and advance to the ACCT championship game.  But a loss to the 'Canes isn't a bad loss by any stretch, and I'm totally comfortable with dropping down to a 2-seed for the NCAA Tournament.  Plus, a loss tonight allows us more rest to prepare for the NCAAT.  So it's okay if we drop this one tonight.  If we beat Miami, we need to go ahead and finish the job and beat UNC/Notre Dame tomorrow night.

Right now, we're right on the 1-seed/2-seed either/or line.  Win the ACCT, lock up a 1.  Lose tonight, it's a 2.  But what if we win tonight and then lose tomorrow?  I think that's probably a 2.

Once in the Big Dance, my only real hope is that we don't end up with the 2 in the same regional as Michigan State's 1, or vice versa.  I want to avoid Sparty until the Final Four or (better yet) the championship game.  I'm not a coward, just a realist.  We don't have enough Brogdons to shut down Valentine AND Forbes, and I think their supporting cast is better than our supporting cast.  Naturally, I want revenge on Michigan State, but discretion is the better part of valor.  Let's just avoid those fuckers and make some major hay in the tourney.

Other teams I'd like to see us avoid in the brackets:

• Kansas in the Elite Eight -- Too much talent to counter.
• Indiana in the Sweet Sixteen -- Their perimeter firepower scares me.
• Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen -- They've had a tough season (by their standards), but they still have oodles of talent.  Plus, it's not a great matchup for us.  Perrantes can't counter Ulis' quickness.
• Iowa State in the Sweet Sixteen -- It's an interesting contrast in styles, but the Cyclones' scoring punch could keep us off balance.
• Maryland in the Sweet Sixteen -- Just because it would be extremely painful to see our season come to an end at their hands, if we lost.
• Arizona in the Sweet Sixteen -- Just because of their talent, plus Sean Miller's coaching.  He's one of the few guys in this tourney who'd be able to match wits with Tony Bennett.
• Wichita State in the 2nd round -- Like with Sparty, we don't have enough Brogdons to defend those two guards.
• Providence in the 2nd round -- It's another double-headed dragon that could cause us problems.
• Hawaii in the 1st round -- That team is tough and has some chutzpah.
• Green Bay in the 1st round -- Because it'd be painful for Tony.

Of course, there's a flip-side to all of that.

Teams I'm licking my chops to see the Hoos play in the Big Dance:

• Xavier in the Elite Eight -- Not because I think they're a bad team, but because if we get them, it means we effectively dodged Kansas and Michigan State.
• Oklahoma in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight -- It's a dream matchup for Virginia.  Brogdon shuts down Buddy Hield, and we blow them the fuck out.  (The same is true with any team that has one dominant scorer who isn't a big man.)
• Oregon, anytime, anywhere -- Quack quack, motherfuckers.
• Utah in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight -- Poeltl is scary, but the packline can shut down any inside-out offense, an that's all Utah has.
• Texas A&M in the Sweet Sixteen -- Mark me down as a person who does not believe in the Aggies (see also: Oregon).
• Maryland in the Sweet Sixteen -- Can't have it both ways?  I'm having it both ways.  I relish the chance to end those assholes' season.
• Iowa, Dayton, Seton Hall, Colorado, South Carolina, Texas Tech, Butler, St. Joseph's, Oregon State, St. Bonaventure, USC, and/or Temple in the 2nd round -- Cakewalk.
• Cincinnati in the 2nd round -- Just because it'd be a fun little rockfight.
• Wisconsin in the 2nd round -- So we can show them how it's REALLY done.
• VCU in the 2nd round -- I'm not ready to forgive the Rams for Shaka Smart.
• Texas in the 2nd round -- I'm not ready to forgive Shaka Smart.

Random predictions:

• We beat Miami, lose to UNC.
• I want the South (Louisville) or East (Philly) regional, but we'll somehow get screwed and sent out West (Anaheim).
• We get Green Bay in the 1st round, the winner of Wisconsin/VCU in the 2nd round, and Maryland in the Sweet Sixteen.
• As a reward, it's Xavier or Oklahoma in the Elite Eight, and we win by 20.
• This is the season, Hoofans.  Final Four.
• Joining us in Houston: Kansas (chalk), Michigan State (chalk), Arizona (pretty much chalk).  As the talking heads keep screaming at us, this tournament is wide-open, with so much parity and no dominant teams... but I just have a feeling we're not about to see a George Mason type of run.  Lots of seeded upsets on the first weekend, but then things settle down.
• But if there IS a George Mason in this year's field, it's Little Rock.  Mark my words.

That's it for now.  I'll have some bracket reaction on Monday, I'd imagine.

GO HOOS!  Cut down those nets in DC!