February Rooting Guide

More notes from the bubble...

Like it or not, we are still on the bubble thanks to our middling strength of schedule (currently #125 overall) and less-than-remarkable RPI (currently #41 overall -- take a look to the right to see our updated tournament resumé!)  The schedule turns really tough in February, which will help those peripherals... but if we lose too many of these games, we could be in trouble come Selection Sunday.

Here's our schedule down the stretch...

2/4 @ FSU
2/8 vs. Wake
2/11 @ UNC
2/14 @ Clemson
2/18 vs. Maryland
2/21 @ VT
2/25 vs. UNC
3/1 vs. FSU
3/4 @ Maryland

We need to win five of these games.  The obvious ones are Wake, Clemson, Tech, and the two against Maryland.  All but one of those games (home against Wake) make me nervous.  None are guaranteed wins.  The other four games against UNC and FSU represent great opportunities -- each win in those games serves to solidify our inclusion in the tournament, to validate our gaudy record, and probably helps us to jump up seed lines.  Losing all four wouldn't be disastrous, but you're looking at the dreaded 8/9 game if we can't notch another marquee win on the season.  The hope is that we win at least one of those four games, preferably two.

Then there's the ACC Tournament.  Most likely, we are going to end up with the 4-seed, or maybe the 5- or 6-seed if NC State and/or Miami can make a surge while we falter a little.  Honestly, playing on Thursday might not be a terrible thing.  Another game - presumably a win - against BC, Wake, or one of the Techs won't really help our bubble peripherals, but it would add another win to our total and create the illusion of momentum, should the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee decide to consider that metric this year (you never really know with those wishy-washy n'er-do-wells.)

Do YOU trust the selection committee?  Because I absolutely do not.

Anyway, if you're anything like me, you are completely done with football now (sorry, Super Bowl) and are in full college hoops mode.  It's been so long since we've been on the bubble you're probably watching games all willy-nilly, with no certain rooting interests.  To make it into the Big Dance off of the bubble, you're not operating in a vacuum.  You need to see other bubble teams lose, you need to see locks win, and you need to see your RPI and SOS improve down the stretch.  With that in mind, I'm here to give you a viewing guide - which is really more of a rooting guide - for the month of February and into March.

Teams to Root FOR:
-- All the teams we played out of conference, especially the decent ones who have a chance to land in the final RPI top 100: Drexel, Drake, George Mason, Oregon, LSU, TCU, and especially Michigan (currently our only marquee win - we need it to stay a marquee win).
-- All of the ACC teams we play twice, as opposed to the ACC teams we only play once: Virginia Tech (blech, I know), Maryland (yuck, I agree), Clemson, North Carolina (ugh), and Florida State.
-- All of the current tournament "locks," the really good teams who have already pretty much punched their dance tickets.  (We don't want to see these teams lose and give other bubble teams more marquee wins): Duke (hurts, I understand), Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Ohio State, Michigan State (groan), Kentucky (puke), UNLV, San Diego State, Creighton, Saint Mary's, and Murray State.


Teams to Root AGAINST:
-- In ACC games, pull against the teams we only play once: NC State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Boston College.  The good news here is that the list includes two other bubble teams in State and Miami, and three of the four worst ACC teams.  The more our conference standings are striated, the better it looks if we finish toward the top.
-- All of the other bubble teams.  Obviously.  We want our resumé to be better than theirs, so we need to see these teams lose, early and often.  It's a long list, so I'll make it bulleted and put it in alphabetical order for your viewing pleasure:

• Alabama
• Arkansas
• Arizona
• Brigham Young
• California
• Central Florida
• Cincinnati
• Colorado
• Colorado State
• Connecticut
• Dayton
• Florida
• Gonzaga
• Harvard
• Illinois
• Indiana
• Iowa State
• Kansas State
• La Salle
• Long Beach State
• Louisville
• Massachusetts
• Memphis
• Minnesota
• Mississippi State
• New Mexico
• Notre Dame
• Oklahoma
• Old Dominion
• Pittsburgh
• Purdue
• Saint Joseph's
• Saint Louis
• Seton Hall
• South Florida
• Southern Miss
• Stanford
• Temple
• Texas
• Vanderbilt
• Virginia Commonwealth (Just to stick it to Smaka Shart; I don't care if VCU ever goes back to the tournament.)
• Washington
• West Virginia
• Wichita State
• Wisconsin
• Wyoming
• Xavier

I don't feel like an a-hole in saying that I hate you, Smaka Shart.

I know I just listed a lot of teams.  I wanted to be thorough with this.  I also wanted to illustrate just how crowded the bubble is this year, and show you why I'm worried about missing the tournament, even coasting into February with an eye-popping 18-3 record.  We have played a weak schedule, and our peripherals are not great.  You have to be realistic about things, and the reality is that the ACC is down, the nation is still in VCU-induced mid-major euphoria, and the selection committee always loves to smack down a non-vogue ACC team.  We need to leave zero guesswork for the committee, so we need to see the bubble get weak while we stay strong.

Please consult this post whenever you settle in on the coach to watch college hoops.  We need all the good juju we can get.

GO HOOS!