VMI went 2-9 in 2009.
Rolling along after the long weekend...
To get caught up, I am predicting the following for the first two games of Virginia's 2010 season: a 24-16 win over Richmond and a 38-13 loss at USC to stand at 1-1 heading into the bye week and then the game against VMI.
VMI -- Sept. 25
The Virginia Military Institute has, at times in its history, had a good football team. 2009 (and presumably, 2010) is not one of those times. The Keydets will be trying to replace both their starting QB and star RB, and their defense surrendered 403.7 yards per game against such FCS juggernauts as Gardner-Webb, Coastal Carolina, Stony Brook, and Liberty. VMI lost its game against Old Dominion, in ODU's first season playing football. The VMI offense committed 35 turnovers... that's three per game, with an experienced veteran passer and running back. If you're not getting the point, VMI is bad against its fellow FCS competition, and stands to be completely drubbed by any FBS competition it faces.
This is not like the William & Mary game last year. W&M was at least a very good team by FCS standards.
Agaist Virginia on Sept. 25th, I'm expecting the Keydets won't be able to find any answers. I think the Hoos will grind the Keydets to a pulp. We'll run the ball down their throats, our defense will shut them down, and they won't be able to contend with our superior athletes. My prediction is 48-3, Hoos. (Percentage chance of a Virginia win: 99.9999999999999999999%)
Christian Ponder is a legit Heisman Trophy candidate.
Florida State -- Oct. 8
By FSU standards, they have been down for a few years now. This is a program and a fanbase that expects to be competing for national championships, and the twilight of Bobby Bowden's career led them into mediocrity. The revival is fully underway, however, as new head coach Jimbo Fisher has brought more of an SEC-style mindset to the program. The rebound to the nation's elite will be swift, but this year still figures to be a bit of a transition period for the 'Noles.
Sharp-passing senior quarterback Christian Ponder leads the way. He is Florida State's best QB since Chris Weinke starred in the late 90's, and he will lead nine other returning starters on offense for the 'Noles, including all five offensive linemen and explosive playmakers in halfback Jermaine Thomas and receiver Bert Reed. Florida State scored 30+ points per game last season, with Ponder missing four games due to injury. This offense will be the premier offense in the ACC this season. The Seminole defense, on the other hand, might continue to be a bit spotty. The front seven could be pretty good, but the secondary must be rebuilt from scratch. Add it all up, and FSU looks to me like a solid nine-win team with real aspirations for winning the Atlantic division and making an appearance in the ACC championship game.
You don't need to tell Virginia fans how much talent Florida State has amassed on its team. We've seen how dominant the 'Noles can be, and aside from the "stopped chop" in 1995 and the Marques Hagans miracle in 2005, FSU has owned UVA on the gridiron. In the 2010 game, I think we'll see Ponder carve us to pieces, and our offense struggle to score enough points to match him. If our secondary can step up and if star players like Ras-I Dowling and Rodney McLeod can generate some INTs, we could hang tough, but that seems unlikely. This is a perfect opportunity for Mike London to notch his first "breakthrough" type of victory... but I don't see it happening. Our offense just won't be far enough along in the fourth game of the season. 34-20, Florida State. (Percentage chance of a Virginia win: 25%)
So... 2-2 through four games. I think that's a reasonable expectation. The next two games will likely decide the ultimate success or failure of the season. @ GT and home against UNC --- win one of those two, and six (or even seven) wins becomes a distinct possibility. Lose them both, and we're looking at a lowered ceiling of somewhere around five wins.
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