HUGE game tomorrow, but unfortunately no time for a proper post today. However, I need to get this pick out.....
Notre Dame is favored by 12.5, with an over/under of 48.5, therefore, Vegas is expecting a 30-18 type of win for the Irish.
I like our defense's chances of making it ugly and keeping it close, but ultimately our offense just doesn't have enough punch right now* to spring the upset on their home field.
My pick: Notre Dame 24, Virginia 13
(My season to date: 4-0, 3-1 ATS, 4-0 O/U)
* Yeah, our offense isn't clicking right now. A few reasons why, in no particular order:
Bryce Perkins clearly is not at 100%. He's still a dangerous runner, but the electric "suddenness" just isn't there.
The offensive line is banged up. And young. And individual linemen are being forced to rotate around between different roles too much. Add it up, and it's - STILL - a below-average OL. Ugh. I hate it. I just hate it. I hate watching offenses with bad line play. It sounds crazy to say this, but it's STILL Mike London's fault. We have zero senior OL, and only two juniors. That's a harsh indictment of our OL recruiting from five years ago, when London was still the coach.
The receivers aren't getting enough separation. I put this on them, and they as a unit had a bad game against ODU. We need all of Reed, Dubois, Jana, Chatman, Kemp, and Kelly to show up in South Bend.
Our backs appear to be ho-hum. But I suspect that's a symptom of #2, above, and #5, below.
Playcalling hasn't been bad, but also hasn't been anything above the "meh" level. I won't lambast Robert Anae like [too] many Hoofans are wont to do, but this offense is clearly begging for a tempo-based, pistol formation quick passing game. Keep Perkins in the pocket so he can get healthy, protect the OL by getting the ball out quickly and not asking them to do a ton of run blocking, and get the receivers in a better rhythm by feeding them a steady diet of short, easy completions.
Gotta get some of these things figured out, or we return to Charlottesville to play Duke at 4-2 and unranked in three weeks, despite a clear and obvious top-15 defense.
Perkins, B pass complete to Dubois, H for 5 yards to the VA19 (Fagan,C).
Perkins, B pass complete to Cowley, T for 2 yards to the VA5 (Samuel,A).
Perkins, B pass complete to Jana, T for 15 yards to the VA40, 1ST DOWN VA (Samuel,A).
Perkins, B pass complete to Dubois, H for 6 yards to the VA46 (Jackson,D).
Perkins, B pass complete to Jana, T for 13 yards to the FS41, 1ST DOWN VA (Lars-Woodbey,J).
Perkins, B pass complete to Jana, T for 4 yards to the FS37, out-of-bounds (Samuel,A).
Perkins, B pass complete to Atkins, L for 2 yards to the FS35, out-of-bounds.
Perkins, B pass complete to Kemp, B for 7 yards to the FS20 (Robinson,J).
Perkins, B pass complete to Jana, T for 4 yards to the FS16, 1ST DOWN VA (Fagan,C).
Perkins, B pass complete to Reed, J for 4 yards to the FS12 (Warner,L;Taylor,L).
Perkins, B pass complete to Reed, J for 12 yards to the FS0, 1ST DOWN VA, TOUCHDOWN
Perkins, B pass complete to Jana, T for 9 yards to the VA34 (Warner,L).
Perkins, B pass complete to Jana, T for 12 yards to the VA46, 1ST DOWN VA (Samuel,A).
Perkins, B pass complete to Dubois, H for 7 yards to the FS34 (Samuels,S;Taylor,L).
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Chatman, T, dropped pass.
Perkins, B pass complete to Reed, J for 11 yards to the FS20, 1ST DOWN VA (Jackson,D).
Perkins, B pass complete to Reed, J for 9 yards to the FS2 (Taylor,L;Nasirildeen,H), PENALTY FS face mask (Nasirildeen,H) 1 yards to the FS1, 1ST DOWN VA.
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Reed, J.
Perkins, B pass complete to Dubois, H for 35 yards to the FS15, 1ST DOWN VA (Nasirildeen,H).
Dude.
That list was Bryce Perkins' second half passing performance against Florida State. 19 attempts, 17 completions (.895), one dropped pass (#15), one throw away (#18), 14 completions in a row, 8.26 yards per attempt. The yardage wasn't huge (157), but make no mistake, Perkins' passing in the second half is what allowed UVA's 3★ talent to punch above its weight class and knock out FSU's 4.5★ talent.
Now we're 3-0 on the young season, ranked #21, and rolling along as what appears to be the second- or third-best (behind Clemson and Wake Forest) team in the ACC.
By the way, here's 247's College Football Team Talent Composite for the entire ACC.
So... based on pure talent... as measured by raw recruiting rankings... we're 3-0 but still need to "punch above our weight class" six more times this season. Seven, if you include these guys:
But, look, I still think we're an 8- or 9-win team. We'll take some injuries, and we'll stumble a couple more times when our talent level just isn't quite commensurate with our opponents. Probably. Who knows? All I know is that it's damn fun to beat FSU and be ranked solidly in the top-25 at this point in the season.
And I'm not trying to create any consternation over our relative talent level. Because, look at our last two recruiting classes.....
2018
2019
The talent level is growing. And as I said before, Bronco Mendenhall delivered #30(ish) results with #60(ish) talent at BYU, so what happens at UVA when his talent level gets inside the top-40? We're getting there now, recruiting cycle over recruiting cycle, season over season.
The success we enjoyed last season, the success we're enjoying this season, it's SUSTAINABLE. And it's only the beginning.
~~~
Sticking with the theme of raw talent, the Hoos welcome ODU to town on Saturday night.
It's gonna be a bloodbath.
We're favored by a cool 30 points, with an over/under of 50. The wise guys think we win this game, 40-10.
ODU features the nation's #72 rushing offense, its #123 passing offense, its #34 rushing defense, and its #85 passing defense. I think we'll come out and challenge that #34-ranked unit, and try to pound the ball with Taulapapa and the gang while protecting Perkins and using the opportunity for a good "get right" game for the offensive line. Stop the run, force punts, run the ball, control the clock, grind out a lopsided win. I'm taking the Monarchs plus the points and I'm betting the UNDER.
The Jefferson-Eppes trophy is composed of an intricately wrought silver pitcher presented to the city of Tallahassee by Eppes in 1842 and set upon a wood base made of remains of the McGuffey Ash, which was once the largest tree on the Grounds of the University of Virginia but suffered a fatal tree disease in 1990. The trophy was designed by famed artist Ryan Parker.
After this, we aren't scheduled to play Florida State in a regular season ACC game until some point after the 2024 season. If the current rotation holds, it'll be 2025. But that's six years from now. So if we win on Saturday night, we get to hang on to the above-pictured bad bitch for a nice, long time. Let's bring that McGuffey Ash home!
But, look, we've only ever beaten them three times out of 18 tries since the trophy was conceived. The first of those times, in 1995, remains the fondest memory of my entire life -- and I'm happily married and the father to two wonderful children, and I witnessed the 2019 basketball national championship! But, nope, this night is the best memory of my life:
Okay, so for the first time ever (I think, but let's just go with it and not fact-check), we're favored against FSU. It's UVA -7.5, O/U 56.5 -- So Vegas thinks we'll win a 31-24 type of game. I do like Virginia to win outright, but we're giving too many points. I like Florida State with the points and I'm taking the OVER in this game.
My pick: Virginia 33, Florida State 28
(See what I did there?)
(My season to date: 2-0, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U)
I put the cart before the horse in this post, but whatever.
I have a question to answer re: Mike London, after a little self-scouting as we head into this bellwether game against a desperate FSU team. But first, a quick bucket of cold water to dump over your heads.
247 Sports has this College Football Team Talent Composite thing they put together, based on recruiting rankings of the players on the rosters of the teams in the FBS. Take a look...
There's an awful lot to be said for coaching and leadership and systems and toughness and development and intangibles and all of that good crunchy shit, but the bottom line is FSU comes to town with 4 and 5★ talent, and we're countering them with 3★ talent. So if we lose this game - not saying we're going to lose, just saying it's possible - if we lose this game, please do not stress and do not turn on this team or program. 4★ QB James Blackman could catch fire or 5★ running back Cam Akers could explode or 5★ defensive end Joshua Kaindoh could single-handedly wreck our offensive gameplan or 4★ defensive back Hamsah Nasirildeen could snatch a couple of takeaways or 4★ receivers Tamorrion Terry and D.J. Matthews could kill us deep or anything else that happens when you face off against top-10 talent could happen. I think you get my point. We're well equipped to do so, but we're still punching above our weight class in this game.
Now, that being said, Florida State sucks. These fuckers almost lost on their home field to UL-Monroe this past weekend. I think we've got our proverbial act together while they are imploding in slow motion. Chief Osceola stabbed that flaming spear into the turf, and then four hours later the Semenholes needed UL-Fucking-Monroe to shank a PAT in order for FSU to win in overtime. C'mon.
Everything is not perfect with our team, though. Far from it. I'm sticking with my prediction of a 9-3 regular season. Here's a quick position-by-position [shallow] dive into why I'm merely sipping thirsty at the kool-aid and not chugging it down full-throat.
Quarterback
Bryce Perkins is nursing a knee injury and wearing a brace. His quickness and suddenness has clearly been affected. And he seems to be forcing some of his throws, specifically when Terrell Chatman is the target. He seems mortal. That scares me.
Running Back
After sitting out W&M with a minor injury, Wayne Taulapapa is back as our RB1 for FSU. I love him, and soon you will too. It won't/shouldn't be long til Mike Hollins is our RB2, or even RB1a. He's legit, and I've heard Thomas Jones and Emmit Smith comparisons. Still, this backfield is not settled or established. That worries me. In a game where controlling the ball will be important, that worries me.
Wide Receiver
I think we have something in Chatman. Joe Reed is looking like our WR1. Hasise Dubois is looking good and getting open. Terrell Jana is an outstanding tertiary target. And we haven't even seen the destruction TK and Billy Kemp can wreak from the slot. I'm excited to see more from the ensemble, and I think we'll need a few big plays from these guys this week.
Offensive Line
We seem to be settled with the Swoboda/Nelson/Oluwatimi/Glaser/Reinkensmeyer (L to R) line for now, and I like it. Let that unit gel. I think it'll look better week over week. But this week? It's still a weakness, overall.
Defensive Line
Fantastic. But they'll have their hands full trying to contain Akers and pressure Blackman this week. Controlling [dominating] the LOS is easier against W&M's guys than it will be against FSU's collection of studs.
Linebacker
Need more blitzing from the edge. So far, the OLBs only have 2.5 sacks (compared to 4 from the ILBs and 3.5 from the secondary). That number of sacks and pressures provided by Snowden, Brown, and Taylor has to rise, because we need Mack and Zandier home to defend Akers and the secondary home to defend these 4★ speed merchants FSU has at receiver.
Safety
Blount, Nelson, and Cross, wow. Major, major, MAJOR strength of the team right now. Could really use a pick against FSU, guys.
Cornerback
Okay, I like Nick Grant. He's getting the job done. Need some big Bryce Hall moments against the Noles.
Special Teams
Excellent. Keep it up. No fuck-ups against FSU, please.
GO HOOS!
Okay, one last thing. I got a question this week from a reader:
Why do you hate Mike London so much?
The answer is pretty simple. Although Littlepage and [especially] Jon Oliver deserve a ton of the blame, Mike London went 27-46 in six seasons as our head coach. That's a .370 mark. That is... fucking horrendous. And on top of that, he failed to land any good quarterbacks, negligently failed to properly stock the lines (especially the OL), fostered a destructive culture of lazy entitlement, and left the program in much worse shape than where he found it. So, yeah, I hate Mike London. He took something I love - Virginia Football - and drove it into a crater.
The 52-17 beatdown of William & Mary felt good, but my hunger for vengeance is not yet sated. We get the Tribe again in 2021 and 2023, and - if London survives as their coach that long - I look for us to pile-drive them in those games, too. Maybe then it'll be enough to satisfy me.
Others may have forgiven him because "he's such a great guy," but I haven't forgotten the 2012, 2013, 2014, or 2015 seasons, nor have I forgotten the gaping holes we had at the quarterback position and along the offensive line due to his recruiting negligence. 2016 sucked because of the mess he left behind, including the laissez-faire country club culture prevalent in the Virginia locker room. Our program was soft because he made us soft.
And I'm still bitter.
Let me remind you of these games so you can be bitter, too!
2012: 44-38 home loss to Louisiana Tech
2013: 48-27 home loss to Ball State (that was my personal breaking point)
2014: 28-27 home loss to UNC
also 2014: 24-20 loss to Virginia Tech (I think this was most everyone else's breaking point)
2015: 56-14 home loss to Boise State
And now he returns to Scott Stadium as the coach of William and Mary.
No mercy, Hoos. Run up the score.
~~~
The Tribe runs something called a "go-go" offense, which looks like a quick-snap double wing triple option type of thing, kinda sorta. (It's not a terrible offensive approach for them.) We need to stop the run with our killer DL and linebacking corps, while getting our own running game going between the tackles (PAPA!) Force their young running QB to make difficult throws under duress while taking the ball (and the pressure) off of our otherworldly talent at QB. We have the edge in almost every discernible category, so we really just need to go out there in Friday night primetime and flex nuts. Grind them down, steal their wind, and then take their hearts. It's a good chance for the OL to gel and for some of the younger role players to dip their wicks.
The line is 33 points with an over/under of 45. Essentially, Vegas is predicting a 39-6 win for the Hoos. Not good enough. We need to break 45 while holding them under 10. In other words, I want annihilation. I want a 56-3 type of bloodbath.
Not sure we'll get that, because Bronco's a classy guy who'll call off the dogs.
