Launch Point: 2019 Virginia Football Preview, the Defense

Picking up from where I left off yesterday...

Damn, we're finna have a downright NAAASTY defense. Three A's in nasty.

Defensive Line

Starters: #58 Eli Hanback / senior, #16 Richard Burney / senior, #99 Jowon Briggs / true freshman

Backup(s): #91 Mandy Alonso / junior, #94 Aaron Faumui / sophomore, #76 Jordan Redmond / sophomore

Others: #50 Tommy Christ / sophomore, #95 Ben Smiley III / true freshman, Isaac Buell / sophomore

#SILVERBACKS

Outlook: The Silverbacks (DL) are a lot like the Rhinos (OL), completely flipping what was a weakness of the recent past into a strength. This is a position group laden with quality depth. Two differences between the 2019 DL and the 2019 OL: 1) The Silverbacks have two senior leaders in Hanback and Burney, and 2) the Silverbacks have a guy with certain Aaron Donald-ish star potential, true freshman Jowon Briggs.

Don't get yourself too hung up on positions or anything other than this -- Can this group stop the run and can this group apply some interior pass rush pressure? I believe it's a resounding yes on both fronts, especially considering what should be a nine-man rotation allowing everyone to play fresh. And angry. Angry waves of brutal punishment crashing down upon the opponents' offense.

Remember, last year, we somehow made due with just 3-5 healthy bodies, including two guys who were true freshmen at the time in Faumui and Redmond. In a perfect world, those guys would have redshirted... but... the experience they gained should accelerate their growth.

Hanback's a battler who will set the tone, Burney adds in strength and athleticism, Briggs brings next-level ability, the Alonso/Faumui/Redmond trio are starter-quality backups, and true frosh Smiley can rotate in and add some oompf. Jury's out on Christ and even more so Buell, but those two will have a chance to sparkle in spot duty.

Nine guys, all of them good, all of them ready to perform. Wow. We've come a long way from 2018's season-long war of attrition.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 10
For my money, this is the best spot on the team heading into the season opener. Of our nine guys who figure to factor into the rotation, I think at least four have NFL futures. The headliner is going to be Briggs, but the other guys are damn good, too.

Linebacker

Starters: #4 Jordan Mack / senior, #11 Charles Snowden / junior, #33 Zane Zandier / junior,  #14 Noah Taylor / sophomore

Backup(s): #22 Robert Snyder / junior, #17 Elliott Brown / junior, #42 Nick Jackson / true freshman, #56 Matt Gahm / junior

Others: #45 Reed Kellam / senior, #98 D'Sean Perry / true freshman, T.C. Harrison / redshirt freshman, #66 Jairus Satiu / true freshman, #93 Hunter Stewart / true freshman

Outlook: This is another position group where Hoofans should be feeling good about the ability level and depth. Jordan Mack is a king thumper in the middle of our defense. Zane Zandier, "ZZ Stop," is a tone-setter for the type of evil, mean-spirited energy you need at the heart of a good, strong, intimidating defense. He's a real motherfucker, and I mean that as an absolute compliment. Meanwhile, if I were buying a football jersey for this season, it'd be #11. I think Charles Snowden is our breakout star of the season... and I think he'll have the chance to bolt for the NFL after his junior season at UVA. The fourth starter is Noah Taylor, who's been a stud in all of the offseason work. This is one helluva starting quartet.....

.....and there's not a huge drop-off to the second unit. Snyder is a less violent, more consistent Zandier, Brown is a clear understudy and heir apparent to Snowden, basically a xerox copy of Snowden, Gahm brings pass rush upside to the mix, and true frosh Jackson brings good pedigree and nice recruiting rankings to the fold.

The first of my two concerns lies deeper on the roster -- If injuries pile up at linebacker, I'm not sure our young guys will be ready for prime time.

My second concern is pass rush. These OLBs have to generate the edge pressure. I feel confident in Snowden and Gahm, less so the others.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 8
Mack, Zandier, Snowden, Taylor, goosebumps. Snyder, Brown, Jackson, Gahm, it's a small drop-off. But after that, who the hell knows? Plus, we need two more guys to step up as edge rushers beyond Snowden and Gahm. Brown is an obvious candidate. But who else?

Still, this is a group we should be feeling really good about rolling into the season opener. It's much less of a projection than was needed at running back and wide receiver.

Safety / Sabre

Starters: #28 Brenton Nelson / junior, #29 Joey Blount / junior

Backup(s): #15 De'Vante Cross / junior, #7 Chris Moore / junior

Others: #25 Joseph White / redshirt freshman, #60 Chayce Chalmers / true freshman, #30 Antonio Clary / true freshman

Outlook: Look, none of these guys are Juan Thornhill. As the Chiefs are discovering, Juan is a special, special talent and a special, special guy. None of these guys are Juan Thornhill. But in Nelson and Blount, we have two ACC-quality starting safeties. Nelson is your coverage guy while Blount is your centerfielder. There's a nice mesh between those two skillsets. Chris Moore factors into the linebacker mix, as he's kind of a coverage-savvy chess piece the staff can move around the defense. Cross, meanwhile, has a ton of talent and is finally settled in and developing at a set position after bouncing around the quarterbacks and receivers rooms as an underclassman. I'm confident in our top four guys. The deeper reserve, however, features nothing but newcomers. I'm sure we'll like what we see if/when they hit the field, but at this point it's all unknown.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 7
I'd compare the safeties to the running backs, and I don't really see a future can't-miss NFL guy in the mix at this point, though Nelson and Blount will both have a chance.

Cornerback

Starters: #34 Bryce Hall / senior, #1 Nick Grant / junior

Backup(s): #23 Heskin Smith / sophomore, #39 Jaylon Baker / redshirt freshman

Others: #41 Germane Crowell / sophomore, #90 Major Williams / true freshman, #53 Fentrell Cypress II / true freshman, #92 Tenyeh Dixon / true freshman

Outlook: Losing projected starter Darrius Bratton for the season really hurts. Now training camp star Nick Grant is in the spotlight. He has to make plays as offenses throw away from our all-world corner Bryce Hall.

If I were an offensive coordinator gameplanning how to attack the 2019 UVA defense, I'd be looking to do it with perimeter runs to set up play action attacks deep to Grant's side of the field. Test our pass rush and our downfield coverage ability. It's up to our neophyte edge rush and Grant to shut that shit down.

Unfortunately, the non-Hall corners have to be considered the weakest part of our team, until proven otherwise.

There's talent here (looking for Crowell, specifically, to get back in the groove after his injures), and it's about to be tested.

Thank God for Bryce Hall.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 10+++ for Hall, 5 for the other guys
I'm willing to drink the Nick Grant kool-aid, but my eyes will be glued to his #1 jersey Saturday night against Pitt. Plus, we need some of these young dudes to bubble up in nickel, dime, and reserve roles. It's unequivocally the weakness of our defense, in much the same way the defensive line was last year.

So there you have it.

I'm retired from talking about kickers and punters, but it sounds like Nash Griffin (punter), Brian Delaney (K/P), and Justin Duenkel have us on solid footing heading into the fall. Joe Reed returning kicks and TK returning punts gives us two nice weapons on the return units. All of our linebacking depth gives our coverage units a nice bedrock foundation (one of the benefits of running a base 3-4).

Kickoff is 7:00 Saturday night at Pitt. I think Bronco put it best:

"Pitt has been the more physical team in the previous three years, especially in the trenches on both sides. Pitt's offense and defensive front have controlled the game in each of the past three matchups, so there is a physical component, but then certainly an intensity that has to be played with from the beginning to end. Can't be bits and pieces and can't be streaks here or there or series here or there. I think Pitt has done a nice job in that area in our first three matchups, so my message has been consistent."

We hear you loud and clear, coach. We need to go out and punch them in the mouth.

I'm looking forward to it.

GO HOOS!


The line is UVA -2.5 with an over/under of 47. Essentially, Vegas is predicting a 25-22 win for the Hoos. It'll be much lower scoring than that, and I think we'll beat that spread.

My pick: Virginia 24, Pittsburgh 10.

Lay the points, take the Hoos, and bet the under.

Gameday Enhancements!

Alcohol Sales, Cheap/Free Water, Lyft Access, and the Death of the Adventures of Cavman!

Launch Point: 2019 Virginia Football Preview, the Offense

"This really feels like a launch point now."

~Bronco Mendenhall

That quote came from the Big Whistle himself, after being asked about the level of talent, ability, depth, and consistency present in the program at this point, on the eve of Year Four. That's got to make you feel pretty good, right Hoofans?

Here's the whole quote:

Looking at the depth chart I think there are only four or five guys you didn't recruit. Going into year four, how much does this look like a Bronco Mendenhall team?

"I think I said and established at the end of the bowl game last year is this is just the beginning. This feels like baseline for me for launching our program. That doesn't mean the past three years don't count. We've worked really hard and I'm accountable for every result that's happened, the positives and the negatives and the trajectory. It really feels like a launch point now with players that we've selected with an outcome from a year ago that felt normal to us as a staff and a program to really now go from there to wherever we're going to go. So I'm much more comfortable just because of how the players have been selected, why they've been selected in relation to what schemes, and now some consistency that's been built up to go forward from."

Translation: The roster is built, this is the baseline, this is the launch point as we blast off toward future success.

Fuckin-a.

Anyway, Pitt on Saturday (on the ACC Network, which you probably don't yet have access to!) is our first chance to see what kind of continuity we'll have from a mostly-successful 2018 season into 2019 and beyond.

Let's go ahead and tackle the tried and true position-by-position preview. DON'T WORRY! I'M NOT GOING TO SAY A BUNCH OF STUFF YOU ALREADY KNOW.

Oh, and here's the game week depth chart.

Let's do it!

Quarterback

Starter: #3 Bryce Perkins / senior

Backup(s): #10 Brennan Armstrong / redshirt freshman

Others: #36 Lindell Stone / sophomore

Outlook: B-Perk set school records in 2018 with his 3,603 yards of offense and 34 touchdowns. His 2,680 passing yards and 923 rushing yards placed him alongside Kyler Murray as the only quarterbacks to eclipse the 2,500 passing and 900 rushing marks in 2018. B-Perk is a stud. In 2019, we'll be looking for him to improve a bit with his complex reads (aka hitting on his second and third reads) and his downfield accuracy in the intermediate and deep passing game, while maybe becoming a bit more judicious with his running. But make no mistake -- Perkins is our best quarterback since Marques Hagans, and it's not close. His diverse skillset will provide the engine for our offense in 2019.

In reserve, Armstrong offers great upside and a bright future. In fact, I'd be feeling pretty comfortable and confident if - God forbid - Perkins had to miss any time this season. Armstrong is a dual threat, but might be a better pure passer although definitely a less dynamic runner than Perk.

Note: I do think Perkins gets drafted in April 2020.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 8.5
This would be a 9.8 or 9.9 if Perkins were guaranteed to stay healthy. He's a stud. He's a star.

Running Back

Starter: #21 Wayne Taulapapa / sophomore

Backup(s): #6 P.K. Kier / junior

Others: #5 Lamont Atkins / junior, #20 Mike Hollins / true freshman, #31 Chris Sharp / senior, #27 Jamari Peacock / senior

Outlook: This has been a four-horse race between Taulapapa, Kier, Atkins, and Hollins, and the backfield might end up being a four-headed hydra all season long. Taulapapa has a versatile set of skills and runs with a certain... purposeful violence?... that I think Hoofans will love. He'll be the first head of the hydra to strike at our enemies. Kier is a Jordan Ellis-y between the tackles plodder. I'm less excited about the upside of our offense if he's getting a ton of carries, though he could offer good utility as a short yardage power back. Atkins is more like Taulapapa in that he's a receiving threat and a guy who can bounce runs outside and go the distance. Hollins, meanwhile, is a power-and-balance type who has great workhorse potential ala Rudi Johnson of Bengals lore. I think all four will play this season, and my guess is that Taulapapa and Hollins end up leading the group in touches. (Please note that I said "touches" and not necessarily carries! I think Taulapapa and Atkins will each catch a bunch of passes, a complexion of the offense that Jordan Ellis didn't really offer in 2018.)

Peacock appears to have been developed as a traditional fullback-type, to date only used as a lead blocker. We'll see if he gets any power/leverage carries in 2019. Sharp is a try-hard gadget guy who has endeared himself to his coaches and teammates with his work ethic. These two are situational guys who'll see the field plenty and play their roles.

We have quantity in the backfield, we just need to see the quality gel from the abundance of numbers. It might help if one or two of these backs step up and take over "lead dog" roles. In that vein, I think that by the end of this season we'll be feeling pretty good about the Taulapapa/Hollins combo. 

Here's an important point: We need good, explosive, dynamic backs to earn carries, move the chains, and break big runs in order to keep Perkins' carries down and help keep him healthy. It's a critical piece to the puzzle that needs to click into place in 2019.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 7
I have a lot of faith in Taulapapa, who reminds me of the tough-guy BYU backs Bronco had during his time in Provo; think Harvey Unga, Jamaal Williams, and Curtis Brown, churning grinders who excelled when barreling through contact.

Prepare for Papa's star turn, Hoofans.

Wide Receiver

Starters: #8 Hasise Dubois / senior, #2 Joe Reed / senior, #13 Terrell Jana / junior, #88 Tavares Kelly Jr. / sophomore

Backup(s): #9 Terrell Chatman / senior, #80 Billy Kemp IV / sophomore, #84 Dorien Goddard / true freshman, #89 Dejon Brissett / senior

Others: #87 Dontayvion Wicks / true freshman, #19 Chuck Davis / junior, #86 Ugo Obasi / sophomore, #18 Ben Hogg / senior, #51 Jalen Harrison / junior

Outlook: I just listed thirteen receivers, and I think all of them are going to play on offense at times this season. In other words, ENSEMBLE. The top four guys will be the linchpins, however, with Dubois the most likely to fill the "go-to guy" role for B-Perk. Reed's the deep threat and gadget guy, Jana's the advanced-level route runner, and TK is the explosive jitterbug from the slot. Each fills an important role, and I do think we'll see a lot of four-wide (and five-wide / empty backfield!) sets this fall. Rotating in will be big play weapon Chatman, slot machine Kemp, big-bodied powerwide Goddard, and explosive playmaker Brissett. And then rotating in after them will be future #1 Wicks, quick and wily Chuck Davis, upside-oozy Ugo Obasi, reliable-handed Ben Hogg, and speedy Jalen Harrison.

We have a ton of talent at wideout. No one can debate that. The problem is, the pecking order has yet to be decided, and maybe there aren't any stars for which defenses know they have to prepare. But maybe that's an advantage for us?

Here are last year's receiving stats.

Oz is gone, vacating 1,058 yards and 9 touchdowns. Dubois and Reed could each flirt with the 1,000-yard mark, and I'm expecting big jumps on this list from Jana and Kelly (to around the 400-500 yard level), along with the appearance of a host of newcomers to the rotation -- Chatman, Kemp, Goddard, Brissett, and Wicks. Replacing Zaccheaus' production is going to be a group project.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 7.5
I'm bullish on our top four guys, confident in our next four, and excited about a couple of guys after that (Wicks and Obasi). The playable depth is abundant at wide receiver, and we have the high level of quarterback play required to take full advantage of a mixed and varied fleet of receiving talent.

Tight End

Starter: #44 Tanner Cowley / senior

Backup(s): #85 Grant Misch / redshirt freshman

Others: #46 Christian Baumgardner / junior

Outlook: The tight end is strictly a role player in the Virginia offense. Our top tight end last season, Evan Butts, went 16-141-2, and that's about what I'd expect for Cowley this season. Give us some toughness and good in-line blocking, catch a few passes, convert in leverage situations, and Hoofans will be happy.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 4
I kinda think Cowley is a less-good version of Butts, and this position continues to be minimized in the Mendenhall era. It's fading away from the Virginia offense. I'm not sad about it, especially considering the ten wide receivers I'm so high on. Spread the field, baby.

This is - by far - my favorite picture from training camp.
That's a lot of capable bodies. Brings a tear to my eye.

Offensive Line

Starters (LT to RT): #54 Ryan Nelson / sophomore, #69 Chris Glaser / junior, #55 Olusegun Oluwatimi / sophomore, #79 Dillon Reinkensmeyer / junior, #72 Ryan Swoboda / sophomore

Backup(s): #70 Bobby Haskins / sophomore, #52 Joe Bissinger / redshirt freshman, #63 Tyler Fannin / sophomore, #75 Ja'Quay Hubbard / true freshman, #67 Derek Devine / redshirt freshman

Others: #64 Ben Trent / junior, Gerrik Vollmer / sophomore, Martin Weisz / redshirt freshman

Outlook: It's a young line by eligibility standards (no seniors, a bunch of guys with multiple years of eligibility remaining), but it has some hard-earned experience. Bottom line -- the biggest, hardest-sucking hole Mike London left in our roster has been filled, and the youth it was filled by is only now starting to emerge as a cohesive unit.

I actually really like the o-line preview provided by Paul Guttman at Streaking the Lawn. Go read that and meet me back here...

Virginia Football Unit Previews: Offensive Line

Paul raises a fantastic point; six OL drafted into the NFL from 1990-1999, six OL drafted into the NFL from 2000-2009, three drafted into the NFL from 2010-2019... and that's really the root of the reason we did so much losing in the span from 2012-2016. I believe in my heart of hearts - and you know I tend to the optimistic side, so take this with a grain of salt - but I believe that we have FOUR next-level linemen in this season's two-deep. I won't name names, but I really like these top ten guys, and I think we'll see the best overall line play we've seen since the vintage Groh years (think 2004) and the mid-'90s under Coach Welsh.

And next year, 2020, it'll be even better.

Offensive line is a strength of the team, y'all. That's what recruiting numbers, proper roster planning, faithful development of talent, and building the right culture can earn you. And if you have a strong and deep offensive line, you'll be a relevant program in college football. Hallelujah.

2019 Confidence Scale (out of 10): 9
The only reason it's not a 10 is because of a lack of senior leaders and because we may be running a bit light on true offensive tackles who can blindside protect on an island.

Oh, and you need to read this, too.....

Standing Tall: Swoboda Overcomes Life-Threatening Ordeal

Up next: The defense!

But first... something to read while you're watching Thursday night football tonight.

From Darden Business Publishing:

Butts in Seats:

Helping the UVA Athletics Department Fill Scott Stadium

2019 Virginia Football Preview, coming this week!

Shit, if I'm bringing back the blog, I need to post something!