Stat Projections!

I finished up the position previews ("Movies I Love") for all of the offensive skill position players, HERE, HERE, and HERE.  With those in place, I thought it might be fun to pump out some stat projections for the players.  Consider this a numerical representation of where I think our production will be coming from, assuming good health for all players.

David Watford
58% completion percentage, 3100 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
PLUS
65 carries, 300 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns
I'm expecting a bit of a scattergun arm with Watford, but the wheels will pay dividends.  He won't be a running QB, per se... but by the end of the season I think his scrambles - along with the scripted read option stuff - will be a big part of the offense.

Greyson Lambert
56% completion percentage, 300 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception
Strictly mop-up duty here.  But realistically, he'll play more than this, because realistically Watford will miss some time here and there with dings, scratches, and dents.  That's especially true if D-Wat gets 65 carries.

Kevin Parks
200 carries, 950 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns
PLUS
18 receptions, 150 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
KP is about to embark upon a hellmarch toward the 1K mark.  I think he'll fall just short, as Smoke and Watford take too much of a bite out of the workload.  Say it after me: "KP1K!"

Smoke Mizzell
90 carries, 450 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns
PLUS
42 receptions, 350 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns
Hello, 800 yards from scrimmage!  The scary thing is that I think this might even be a conservative estimate for the Smoke Monster.  (Damn right I just gave a nickname to the nickname.  LOST fans, unite!)

Khalek Shepherd
45 carries, 250 rushing yards, 1 touchdown
PLUS
12 receptions, 100 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
I'd predict more receptions here if it weren't for Mizzell's presence... and if it weren't for the presence of Shepherd's facemask!  Ziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing!  Or, should I say, dooooooooooooooooink!

Fullbacks in Toto
15 carries, 50 rushing yards, 1 touchdown
PLUS
12 receptions, 100 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
Not really sure what to look for here.  I'm hoping Connor Wingo-Reeves ends up winning the fullback job outright, and I hope he gets some looks in the running and passing game, not just as a lead blocker.

NOTE: I think we'll see a few carries by wide receivers on end-arounds and other trick plays, but those are impossible to predict and crazy for me to list here.

Tim Smith
50 receptions, 750 yards, 5 touchdowns
If, IF, if he can stay healthy.

Darius Jennings
45 receptions, 650 yards, 4 touchdowns
He'll need to be more efficient with his production, because a healthy Tim Smith will take some looks away.

Jake McGee
40 receptions, 500 yards, 5 touchdowns
I don't have much faith in the coaching staff deciding to do the right thing and pump balls at McGee every game.  (Yep, I just said "pump balls."  Back off.)  Third on the depth chart, trying to turn him into a blocker... it all stinks.  But in the end, he's just too good to not use, and I think this is a fair expectation for his numbers.

Dominique Terrell
30 receptions, 300 yards, 1 touchdown
Against my better judgement, 30 catches.  Slot work in this offense should be a lucrative endeavor.

E.J. Scott
20 receptions, 200 yards, 2 touchdowns
"Criminally underused" is my bold prediction for EJS this season.

Adrian Gamble
10 receptions, 150 yards, 1 touchdown
More flashes, but not enough consistent PT for much more than flashes to be able to be shown.

Zach Swanson
10 receptions, 100 yards, 1 touchdown
I have no idea what we'll get from Z-Swan this season, so I just kind of slid him into Colter Phillips' and Paul Freedman's vacated production.

Rob Burns
5 receptions, 50 yards, 1 touchdown
There's a buzz around Burns right now, so this might be a gross misprediction.  He could be our secret weapon, effectively QUADRUPLING these numbers I have listed for him.

Miles Gooch
2 receptions, 10 yards, 2 touchdowns
Sheer wishful thinking here.

NOTE: I think Canaan Severin and Kyle Dockins will get on the field, but I'm not predicting any stats for those guys at this time.


I tried to keep the numbers as realistic and reasonable as possible.

So what do you think?  Am I completely out of my depth?  Where do you think I'm really wrong, and where do you think I nailed it?  Post it in the comments, bro.