Duke 55, UVA 48

It was a weird, weird game today.  I don't have a ton of thoughts fleshed out, but here's what I could scrape together...

• Penalties, turnovers, and poor defense doomed us today.
• Rebuilding a foundation, there are going to be head-scratching days like this.  Days when so much goes right... and so much more goes wrong.
• I'm not going to lie --- losing to Duke pisses me off.  And to lose to Duke for the third year in a row?  It's shameful.
• Congratulations to Dontrelle Inman, who broke Herman Moore's single game UVA receiving record (234 yards).  Inman had 10 receptions for 239 yards and a TD today.  And you know what?  I think he looks like an NFL receiver.  5th/6th rounder, maybe?
• We've been missing Ras-I Dowling all season, and today playing without Chase Minnifield, the secondary was just a mess.
• Our defense is a big problem.  But I'm totally willing to suspend judgement until after next season.  It takes time to switch defensive schemes and transition so many players to new positions.  I just hope my fellow Virginia fans can keep the same level of patience I'm achieving with this process.
• Shame on everyone who, after the Miami win, dared to mutter the "B" word in reference to this year's football team.  (The "B" word = "bowl.")  We're not nearly good enough to even consider the possibility of seven wins.  Right now, I'm just praying we get to five.
• If you feel anger over today's loss and need to direct it somewhere, please allow me to suggest you direct it toward Al Groh.  He's the one who dug this bottomless pit that Mike London is trying to pull us out of.
• I never thought I'd see the day when UVA rang up 643 yards of offense in an ACC game.  I'm waiting to pass judgement on Jim Reid, but I'm willing to be hasty with Bill Lazor.  The dude can flat create and lead a college offense, and I'm stoked to have him calling plays for the Hoos.
• Mobile QBs kill us.  Tyrod Taylor is licking his chops.
• Another week, and another nice trick play on special teams.  This week, it was a fake field goal that produced a touchdown.  I love it!
• I was really happy to see Perry Jones finally get into the end zone.
• I don't like that we lost this game, but I'm proud of the team for battling back from a double-digit deficit, twice.  Especially on a day where we were clearly flat, and our opponent was fired up.
• This might sound crazy, but I think losing today might help us beat Maryland next weekend.  We should come out angry and looking to make a statement in our last home game of the season.

Chin up, guys.  Rebuilding is a roller-coaster.  And we lost... but at least we lost with style.

GO HOOS!

Slicing the 200 Minute Pie, Part II

Back on April 4th (not a month after the conclusion of the 2009-10 season) I posted THIS:

Here's my guess at how the 200 minutes per game will be distributed next year. (2009-10 minutes per game average in parentheses.)


Mike Scott (27.4) -- 30 minutes per game in 2010-11
Sam Zeglinski (29.0) -- 25
Mustapha Farrakhan (21.0) -- 20
Jeff Jones (18.3) -- 20
K.T. Harrell (Fr.) -- 18
James Johnson (Fr.) -- 15
Jontel Evans (16.5) -- 15
Assane Sene (12.6) -- 13
Billy Baron (Fr.) -- 12
Joe Harris (Fr.) -- 12
Will Regan (Fr.) -- 10
Will Sherrill (15.4) -- 10
Akil Mitchell (Fr.) -- redshirt

Thoughts generated by this exercise:
-- It probably won't be this way at the beginning of the season, but the five players I expect to see starting the majority of the games are Evans / Zeglinski / Harrell / Scott / Sene.
-- I think Will Sherrill will cede minutes to Will Regan. The two are very similar players, except Regan is more athletic and has more upside.
-- James Johnson needs to be able to assert himself in the low post early and often.
-- Farrakhan and Jones coming off of the bench together could be a wonderful way to push the tempo and manufacture scoring bursts.
-- Jontel Evans vs. Billy Baron will be a very interesting battle. One of those two guys will run the point... but I fully expect to see Sammy slide into that role in crunch time until/unless Evans develops a somewhat reliable shooting stroke.
-- There will be a lot of pressure on K.T. Harrell to assume a big chunk of Sylven Landesberg's vacated scoring. It will be interesting to see how the youngster responds.
-- I think Joe Harris will play an important role on next year's team: sniper.
-- I still have high hopes for Assane Sene. He's never going to be a scoring threat, but if he can "get it" as a pack line defender, our overall team defense could be really tough. Having a shot blocker on the floor can really allow the pack-line to flourish.
-- I don't actually expect to see a 12-man rotation next season. Coach Bennett will find an 8- or 9-man rotation that works, and then will stick with that. Of the 12 players I gave minutes to above, the three most likely to be excluded from the rotation are Will Regan, Will Sherrill, and Assane Sene.
-- A three-guard look is almost a certainty. But with the makeup of this roster, we could be looking at some heavy doses of a Marquette-esque four guard look. Can Mike Scott handle the pivot in such a system? I have my doubts.
-- No matter what, next year should be fun. I love watching freshman receive their baptism by fire in the ACC, and we'll be seeing that big time next season.

 
 
Of course, Jeff Jones left the program and Sammy Zeglinski went down with an injury that will hold him out for the first four or five weeks of the regular season, but otherwise I stand by most of what I said six months ago.  I have to re-slice that pie, though.  Here goes...
 
(2009-10 minutes per game average in parentheses) [April's guess in brackets] My new guess in BOLD


Mike Scott (27.4) [30] -- 31
Sammy Zeglinski (29.0) [25] -- 0
Mustapha Farrakhan (21.0) [20] -- 27
Jeff Jones (18.3) [20] -- 0, obviously
K.T. Harrell (Fr.) [18] -- 30
James Johnson (Fr.) [15] -- 22
Jontel Evans (16.5) [15] -- 22
Assane Sene (12.6) [13] -- 15
Billy Baron (Fr.) [12] -- 16
Joe Harris (Fr.) [12] -- 10
Will Regan (Fr.) [10] -- 6
Will Sherrill (15.4) [10] -- 6
Akil Mitchell (Fr.) [redshirt] -- 15

Thoughts generated by this exercise:

• My expectations for Mustapha Farrakhan, James Johnson, Jontel Evans, Assane Sene, Billy Baron, and especially K.T. Harrell and Akil Mitchell have risen dramatically over the course of the last six months.
• I think I've nailed the frontcourt rotation here.  Scott and Johnson will combine for 50+ minutes of the 200 minute pie, while Mitchell, Sene, Sherrill, and Regan will fight over the 30 minutes worth of scraps.
• One of Billy Baron or Joe Harris MUST step up in the backcourt, or the team will struggle to survive Zeglinski's absence at the beginning of the season.
• Who will cede minutes when Sammy returns?  I think Mu gives up 4, Harrell 2, Evans 2, Baron 4, Harris 2, and Mitchell 3.  That gives Zeglinski 17 minutes... enough to tiptoe back into action but not enough to disrupt whatever rhythm has developed in the backcourt.
• I took a cowardly approach by predicting Will Sherrill and Will Regan receiving matching 6 minute burns.  I actually think it will look more like Sherrill at 10 minutes and Regan at 2, but will slowly swing the other direction as the season drags along.  Regan has more ability than Sherrill, and as he "gets it," he'll start to steadily eat into Sherrill's minutes.
• In so many ways, Akil Mitchell is the x-factor for this team.  The 15 minutes I project could be waaaaaay too many.  But I've got a gut feeling about this kid.  In fact, toward the end of the season I think the 'primary' lineup will look more like Zeglinski/Harrell/Mitchell/Scott/Johnson. If Mitchell forces his way into the regular rotation early in the season, it will be a good thing for the team because he brings unmatched athleticism into the game.
• If Jontel Evans really has developed a semi-reliable jumper, these 22 minutes I project are way too low.  But how often do you see a player go from having no shot whatsoever to being able to hit on a consistent basis?  I guess I have a subconscious doubt about Evans' ultimate viability at point guard.
• It's too bad Jeff Jones felt the need to transfer for his senior season.  We could really use him this year.
• Joe Harris has a golden opportunity to carve out a specific role on this team.  I don't think he'll play much this year, but when he's in the game my eyes will be glued on him.  If he really can be the designated sniper, it bodes extremely well for his UVA career.

This Saturday's exhibition against Roanoke College will answer many of these questions.  I'll be there, and will provide a full report on Wahooze.  I can't wait!  Basketball season is here!

GO HOOS!

Trifecta Box: Centers

If I'm betting a trifecta box on UVA's center position this basketball season, here's how I'd structure the bet...

Can a bigger, stronger, more sure-handed Assane Sene contribute
more than just blocked shots?

WIN: James Johnson, freshman
Nicknamed "The Beast," Johnson was set for a pretty big role on this team from the minute he gave Coach Bennett his commitment to play for the Hoos.  Johnson is 6-foot-9, 240 pounds worth of beef on the blocks, but it's his endless energy level that has earned him his monstrous reputation.  Like all non Blue Devil or Tarheel freshman big men, I'm sure Johnson will be saddled with plenty of bad calls from ACC refs... I'm just looking forward to seeing him make his five fouls count by playing fearlessly around the basket and by providing a physical, aggressive presence in the paint.  By all accounts, he has a very well-rounded game for a big man --- he's a great rebounder, a sound low post defender, and knows how to play offense with his back to the basket.  If he can fit well into the pack-line and contribute some points from the low post, Johnson should quickly assume starter's minutes at the 5 this season.  I especially like the fit with him and Mike Scott playing together --- it's an athletic, versatile, dangerous combo.

PLACE: Assane Sene, junior
A legit 7-footer, Sene has shown plenty of potential as a dominant shot-blocker at the college level.  The problem is, he has been a massive liability in every other facet of the game.  He's an inconsistent rebounder, struggles to play in position on D (a totally damning quality to posses as a pivot in the pack-line), and has an extreme inability to catch or handle the ball on offense.  In fact, other than a few stickbacks here and there, he's been an albatross on the offensive end of the floor.  Worse, he's been bodied up and pushed around at times in the past, because despite his imposing 7-foot frame, he had only been able to carry around 220 pounds and not much muscle.  He huddled up with strength and conditioning coach Mike Curtis this offseason and forced himself to scarf down peanut butter and jelly and Chipotle in order to add mass and strength.  In addition, he has worked with assistants and caught over 300 football lobs each day, in order to improve his hands.  Early reports are that these two efforts have paid off, and that Sene is a much better player for it.  We'll see...  But the best case scenario is that he's a more sound pack-line defender while retaining his explosive shot-blocking ability, and is no longer a complete liability on offense.  I'm looking for him to take his biggest steps forward when it comes to rebounding, just due to the added size and strength alone.  You can do much worse than having a 7-foot backup center who plays hard, blocks shots, and rebounds.

SHOW: Mike Scott, senior
He played the 5 out of necessity at times during the last two seasons.  Scott is severely undersized for that role, and he tends to wear down significantly when he has to carry major minutes at center.  That said, I can see him playing at the 5 when Coach Bennett decides to go small/fast in order to exploit matchups or keep up with teams that like to run and gun.  A three-guard look with Mitchell and Scott in the frontcourt would really be able to get up and down the court.

ALSO RAN:

• Will Regan, freshman -- Many thought he would be slotted at center from the beginning of his career, because he excels at doing the dirty work down low.  I think he's probably too small for that role, though I do like his potential to be able to pull his defender away from the basket with his effective mid- and long-range jump shot.

ANTE POST:  It's tough to say that this group will be a strength of the team without knowing what we've got in James Johnson.  But there's a reason he was a nationally relevant recruit, and there's a reason so many teams wanted him.  The kid is big, he's active, and he knows how to play.  He'll make his mistakes, but they will be mistakes of aggression, and I can always live with that when it comes to young big men.  Assane Sene will be asked to provide 15+ minutes of relief work each game, and I think he'll be up to it.  The numbers are still way too thin for my liking (I don't want to see either Mike Scott or Will Regan at the 5), but I like the two main centers on our roster, and I think both have the potential to be solid role players in support of K.T. Harrell and Mike Scott.  Good ACC teams will be able to boast more quantity and experience at the center position, but bad ACC teams and mid-majors will struggle to match these two twin towers on the UVA roster.  To me, that's the very definition of "middle of the pack."

Position Grade: C

Trifecta Box: Power Forwards

If I'm betting a trifecta box on UVA's power forward position this basketball season, here's how I'd structure the bet...

Is Mike Scott ready to be "the man" for the Hoos as a senior?

WIN: Mike Scott, senior
12.0 points and 7.2 rebounds in 27.4 minutes on the floor.  Those were Mike Scott's averages during the 2009-10 season, one in which he rode a veritable roller coaster of ups and downs.  Most of his struggles came on the defensive end, where he tended to have trouble knowing and understanding his role in the pack-line.  He also had some hiccups on the offensive end, where he tended to settle for too many jump shots and was an inconsistent finisher around the rim (the bricked breakaway dunk against Virginia Tech immediately comes to mind).  So why are so many people heaping so much hope on this guy to emerge as Virginia's star player this season?  I think the reason is pretty simple --- In his flashes of good play, he has been truly GREAT, and the talk surrounding him is that he's stepped up his game several notches, improved defensively, and has stepped up his role as a vocal leader on the team.  We're going to need his rebounding and low post scoring this season, and we're going to need those things to be reliable, game in and game out.  With a roster mostly in flux, Mike Scott is the one player with a chance to serve a stabilizing role.  When he's on, he's an above-average rebounder, an above-average scorer, and a presence on the defensive end.  I'm expecting big things from Scott this season.  15.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 32.0 minutes per game.  Book it.

PLACE: Will Sherrill, senior
He's a walk-on, and he is what he is --- a high-effort guy who will set hard screens and play hard on defense.  Sherrill isn't the kind of guy who can put his back to the basket and operate on the blocks, he's more of a face-up 4 man who can fade out to the perimeter and knock down the occasional jump shot.  I'm not going to spend a lot of time on him, because you all saw him play last year, and what you see is what you get.  He's a solid player who tends to get eaten alive by bigger, stronger, and more athletic forwards.  But he's a hustle guy who can provide five fouls, a handful of nice screens, and a big body in the lane, along with an occasional 3-bomb.

SHOW: Will Regan, freshman
He's described as a "glue guy," which is often a nice way of saying "an undertalented big man who will work hard."  But I think Regan is more than that.  For one, he is said to be a rebounding specialist.  That's definitely something we need on this team, especially with Jerome Meyinsse graduated.  Second, scouts claim that he has a nice ability to put the ball on the floor and attack the basket, and the requisite jumper to keep defenders honest.  He sounds a lot like Will Sherrill, but I don't think their skill sets are totally redundant.  If Regan can offer up a more athletic, better-rebounding version of Sherrill, then I think he'll be able to provide some positives and be able to make an occasional impact as a freshman.

ALSO RAN:

• James Johnson, freshman -- I have this guy penciled in at center, but there could be times when he plays the 4 with Assane Sene on the floor alongside him.  Johnson is probably our second-best post player behind Mike Scott, so expect to see him in action quite a lot this season.
• Akil Mitchell, freshman -- He's a 3/4 hybrid, but I'm personally hoping he develops into more of a true 4, because he has plus athleticism for the position.  I think he's a big x-factor for our frontcourt this season, as I can envision a world in which Mitchell establishes himself in the rotation ahead of both Sherrill and Regan.

ANTE POST: I've always been a Mike Scott fan, as I think he's got the complete package at the 4 when he's at the top of his game.  Sometimes his most important trait is the ability to knock down free throws (71.9% last year), so when he's tuned in and active, he can get opposing bigs in foul trouble and make them pay at the stripe.  I don't like weighing players down with expectations, but I'm expecting a lot from Mike Scott this season.  Behind him, I'm less enamored with Will Sherrill, and am hoping that Regan and Mitchell force their way onto the floor and start eating into his minutes.  I think at least one of those two freshman will emerge as a reliable presence at the 4.  And one thing can certainly be said for Sherrill, Regan, and Mitchell -- they won't be outworked.  I like the way our power forward rotation sets up for this season, especially if Scott can handle 30+ minutes per game.

Position Grade: B-

Big East Expanding?

Where there's smoke...

(Big East Looks to Add Two Football Teams)

(Big East Makes Smart Move Forward)

...there might be fire.


TCU, Villanova, or and/or UCF.  Nova makes sense, but they have to build a brand new stadium to do it.  UCF fits like a glove.  TCU?  It's geographically "goofy," but it does make sense from strictly a football standpoint.

Could get interesting...

Wahooze ACC Picks -- Week Ten

Last Week: 4-4 (2-6 ATS)  Yep, it was a bad week for the Wahooze picks.

Season: 53-19 (36-29 ATS)  Hanging in there on the season totals, however.

Sorry FSU Cowgirls... but this scoreboard is much more beautiful.

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech (-13.0)
ESPN will rue the day they picked this as the Thursday nighter.  Virginia Tech owns Al Groh's defense, and everybody knows it.  Besides, the Hokies owe the Yellow Jackets a debt of revenge after last season's 28-23 loss.  It's odd (being that I usually dislike seeing VT win), but I can't wait to watch this blowout unfold.  UNTUCK YOUR EFFING SWEATSHIRT!  42-13, VT

Virginia (-1.0) @ Duke
What?  We're road favorites?  I guess the Miami victory gave us a little bit more traction in the realm of popular opinion... and you know what?  I welcome it.  Al Groh's Virginia teams would not fare well in this situation, but I have a feeling Mike London's team will rise to the occasion.  Duke QB Sean Renfree is white-hot after a 28-of-30 passing day against Navy, but I think our [suddenly burgeoning] pass rush and [suddenly ballhawking] secondary will be able to slow his roll just a touch.  We need to win this game for two main reasons: 1) a loss would basically render the Miami win meaningless, and 2) I cannot handle a third straight loss to the shitbag Blue Devils.  This game will be close, but I like the Hoos.  27-23, UVA

NC State @ Clemson (-3.5)
The Wolfpack win over FSU last week was a big one.  Meanwhile, Clemson pissed down their leg against a mediocre BC team.  These are two similarly-talented teams heading in opposite directions.  I hate to beat this drum again, but I'm just not sold on Dabo Swinney as Clemson's head coach.  I give the clear coaching edge to State, the clear momentum edge to State, and the quarterbacking edge to State (Russell Wilson > Kyle Parker).  All of that seems logical, right?  Well, I'm going to employ the Constanza rule on this one.  Clemson wins and I don't really know why.  33-28, Clemson

Maryland @ Miami (-8.0)
With Jacory Harris set to miss this game thanks to the concussion from the "the hit" JKD laid on him, Maryland likely gets to face the Canes with true freshman Stephen Morris at the controls.  Seems like the perfect opportunity for a big Maryland victory in Miami, right?  Not so fast.  Morris is a good QB.  I saw it with my own two eyes.  And with a full week of game prep as the team's starter, I bet he has a breakthrough performance.  And the rest of this Miami roster is still littered with NFL-level talent.  I think the Terps are walking directly into a trap.  30-20, Miami

North Carolina @ Florida State (-10.0)
FSU opened as 7-point favorites, but have been bet all the way up to 10.  And it's still rising.  I think the betting public senses the same thing I do: Carolina is ripe for a loss, and the Seminoles are due a big bounce-back performance after that ugly loss to NC State.  Plus, I think FSU is the more talented team, with the better quarterback, and playing at home.  I don't know about this 10-point line, but I like the Noles a lot here, so I'll give the points.  38-24, FSU

Boston College (-3.0) @ Wake Forest
Wake might just be the worst team in the ACC this year.  Yes, I know they beat Duke, but that game was at home and it's been pretty ugly ever since.  The Deacs came close against Georgia Tech and Navy, but otherwise are giving up well over 40 points per game.  BC is finally getting its defense and running game on track, and I'm looking for the Eagles to roll through Winston-Salem on Saturday.  40-17, BC


I'm always better at making ***BONUS PICKS***

#3 TCU (-4.5) @ #5 Utah
One of these teams is going to gain some serious credibility in the BCS race this weekend, while the loser will unfairly just fade back into the non-AQ white noise (these are two great teams, and neither should leave the nation's consciousness).  It's a minor upset, but I like the Utes at home.  I think they're just a bit more dynamic offensively.  24-20, Utah

#6 Alabama (-6.0) @ #10 LSU
It's the story that nobody wants to see happen: one-loss Bama rolls through the rest of its schedule and leadfrogs undefeated Boise/TCU/Utah for a place in the national championship game.  Roll Tide.  35-14, Bama

JMU @ Richmond
Both teams are at 4-4 and on the bubble for the FCS tournament.  It's likely a de facto playoff game for these two teams, though Madison might be able to survive a loss due to the cred it earned by beating Virginia Tech.  Richmond has experienced some serious injury problems at the QB position, but JMU's entire roster is beaten up.  This is a big rivalry game (compared to UVA/VT at the 1AA level), and should be a heated affair.  I'm a quarterback guy, and thus I like Drew Dudzik and the Dukes.  19-16, JMU

BIG Win

By now, I'm sure you've had a chance to read up on the Hoos' big victory over Miami.  If you're one of the lucky few, you were there to witness the feat.  Or maybe you watched it on ESPN?  Whatever the case, if you're a UVA football fan, I'm sure the smile hasn't left your face since Saturday.  I know my cheeks still hurt today.

For the last three days, I've been struggling to find an angle with which to tackle the magnitude of this win on this blog.  It was a BIG win for so many reasons...

• BIG because of the fact that it was Mike London's first ACC win, and first win over a ranked opponent.  It's potentially a watershed moment in the Mike London era, and it was definitely a "signature" win.
• BIG because Scott Stadium was getting emptier and emptier, with fan apathy at all-time highs.  Hopefully, this win will begin to reverse that trend.
• BIG because the game was on ESPN, and the entire nation had a chance to get a glimpse of what Mike London's Virginia teams can look like.
• BIG because there were no fewer than 20 truly big-time recruits on hand to see it.  (For some odd reason, London picked this game against Miami as the official visit weekend of the 2010 season.)  The 2011 recruits in attendance included four-star cornerback Demetrious Nicholson, four-star linebacker Travis Hughes (both from the 757), three-star Texas defensive end Horace Arkadie, three-star Georgia linebacker D.J. Hill, and three-star wide receiver Demetri Knowles.  Nicholson probably sits atop the wish list of prospects to close out the 2011 class, and by all accounts he had a tremendous visit.
• BIG because so many of our maligned players had great games and can now attack the remainder of the season with renewed confidence.  I'm especially talking about Marc Verica, Corey Mosley, John-Kevin Dolce, Perry Jones, Rodney McLeod, Mike Parker, LaRoy Reynolds, Darnell Carter, Devin Wallace, and Morgan Moses.  It was a total team effort, and many players played their best games of the season to this point.
• BIG because the defense came together and [finally] showed that it can be a strength of the team.  Five interceptions, big hits, and controlling the Miami running game -- it was an impressive display.
• BIG because of this hit, a hit that was mean and clean, a hit that neatly and succintly summarizes what our defense is going to be about -- physicality and swagger, and a hit that might just be the moment that defines a team and catalyzes the rebirth of a successful program:

I honestly cannot watch this enough.

Okay, so it's a brief Wahooze look at the program's biggest win since 2007.  But honestly, I think the rags covered everything pretty darn well.  Here are shome choice nugs:

London is a Breath of Fresh Air, Chris Wallace, CavsCorner.com

London Gets First Signature Win with Hoos, Jeff White, virginiasports.com

UVa Cavaliers' Win Over Miami Puts Signature on London Era, Doug Doughty, Roanoke Times

Dolce Hit May Fuel Virginia Revival, Tom Robinson, Virginian-Pilot

A Milestone Win for UVA, Steve Yanda, The Washington Post

Yeah, it was a pretty big win.