Is the Cupboard Bare for 2016 and Beyond?

It's sad. I wrote it in 2009, and now I'm writing it again in 2015.


We're in the very weird, uncomfortable spot of needing to pull for our team to lose games.  That just leaves a terrible taste in my mouth, and makes me feel depressed and a little bit dirty.  Of course, in the heat of the moment logic takes a backseat to emotion, and I pull for the Hoos on gameday... but the best thing for the program is continued losing and Mike London's swift exit stage left.

I've been doing a lot of dwelling on the negatives and wallowing in misery over these last couple of years.  That has to stop. I love football too much to live like this, and I love Virginia Football too much to completely turn my back on it.

Assuming we get a new coaching staff this offseason (maybe a big assumption), and assuming zero attrition from the roster and 2016 recruiting class (a huge, and a hugely incorrect assumption, but a necessary one for this exercise), what does the team look like for 2016?  How about beyond?

Is the cupboard bare at UVA?  Does a new coaching staff have hope for a quick turnaround given the personnel on hand?

Let's take a look...


Quarterback

Eligibility Exhausted: none

Returning Starter(s): Matt Johns (Sr.)

Other Returnees: Connor Brewer (Sr.), Corwin Cutler (So.), Nick Johns (RS Fr.)

Incoming Recruits: Sonny Abramson (3☆)

Hope for the Future: If you like Matt Johns - as I like Matt Johns - then you have to like the 2016 forecast; Johns is back with a lot of experience under his belt.  The succession plan is also pretty strong: Johns (2016) to Cutler (2017-18) to [Nick] Johns / Abramson.  I assume the new coaching staff will want to hand-pick their own QB recruit(s)/transfers for the 2017 class and beyond, so guys like Cutler and Abramson face uncertain futures at UVA.  That shouldn't blunt any optimism over those two guys, however.

Reasons for Pessimism: Nobody knows anything about how good or bad the young guys are.  Three-star quarterbacks are impossible to project.  Some end up being Russell Wilson or Colt McCoy.  Others end up being... Mike Rocco.  Many, many others end up never seeing the field.  The fact of the matter is that we have no idea what we have waiting in the wings behind Matt Johns until we see it on the field.

Position Grade: Matt Johns is back, I like the talent of the young guys, their recruiting pedigree, etc.  Plus, there's a full stable and a cohesive succession plan.  For those reasons, this position is a solid B+.

He's good, y'all.  Trust.

Running Back

Eligibility Exhausted: Vincent Croce - fullback

Returning Starter(s): Taquan Mizzell (Sr.)

Other Returnees: Olamide Zaccheaus (So.) - I'm counting him as a tailback instead of as a wide receiver, Albert Reid (Sr.), Jordan Ellis (So.), Daniel Hamm (Jr.), Chris Sharp (RS Fr.), LaChaston Smith (Sr.), Connor Wingo-Reeves (Sr.) - fullback

Incoming Recruits: Tre Harbison (3☆), Laderrien Wilson (3☆)

Hope for the Future: Smoke (he's earned the nickname now, imho) and Oz give us a potentially potent and dynamic pair of satellite {only work in space} backs.  Between Reid, Hamm, and Ellis, I feel like we have some competent grinders.  The guys to really get excited about, however, are the young guys -- if Harbison makes it to UVA, he's got Thomas Jones level versatility both between the tackles and around the edge.  He's the top recruit in our 2016 class, but is getting a ton of attention from Wisconsin right now.  Laderrien Wilson, meanwhile, is a Florida kid who had offers from FSU and Miami... and chose Virginia.  Currently redshirting Chris Sharp is said to be a real thumper.  Those three plus Oz give reason to believe the longer-term future is bright at the running back position.

Reasons for Pessimism: Harbison/Wilson could attrite, Zaccheaus could end up at receiver, and the other guys could fail to develop beyond what they already are --- which is a collection of ordinary, one-dimensional running back talents.  A golf bag with five 7-irons and a pitching wedge (Mizzell).

Position Grade: The short-term future looks pretty good, and the long-term future - if Harbison and Wilson both stick through the coaching change - is even better.  To me, the real x-factor is Oz, who has limitless upside if he winds up playing in an up-tempo spread-style offense under the new staff.  In any case, the roster is pretty stacked at this position.  B+.  (I'm not rating it higher than that due to the lack of 4☆ or 5☆ talent other than Mizzell.)

Smoke piles up the all-purpose yards, even if he is a bit lacking as a grinder.

Wide Receiver

Eligibility Exhausted: Canaan Severin (why oh why wasn't he redshirted as a freshman???), T.J. Thorpe

Returning Starter(s): Keeon Johnson (Sr.)

Other Returnees: Andre Levrone (So.) - I am assuming a medical redshirt for his lost 2015 season, Doni Dowling (Jr.), David Eldridge (So.), Kyle Dockins (Sr.), Umar Muhammad-Wyatt (So.), Ryan Santoro (Sr.), Warren Craft (RS Fr.), Jamall Brown (Sr.)

Incoming Recruits: Hasise Dubois (3☆), Joseph Reed (3☆), Cole Blackman (3☆), Aidan Howard (3☆), Neru N'Shaka (3☆)

Hope for the Future: Well, if there's not quality, at least there quantity.  Numbers.  Lots and lots of numbers.  OL and DL be damned, we'll have 12+ wide receivers on scholarship next season!  Keeon Johnson and Andre Levrone have flashed playmaking skills in the past, while Eldridge, Dowling, and Muhammad-Wyatt have been buzzy practice / training camp players.  Of the incoming frosh, Dubois probably has the most upside, but he might end up at defensive back.  Reed, Blackman, and Howard are tall possession-types, while N'Shaka is a speed guy from Florida.  Despite the absence of a true, go-to, #1 type of receiver, I do think we have a pretty good roster composition if the new coach wanted to run some spread... or maybe even (my lips to God's ears) the Air Raid.

Reasons for Pessimism: Yeah, none of these dudes have really done a damn thing on a college football field.  Johnson's best line was a 20-282-1 true freshman season.  Levrone had some highlight plays in 2014, but 15-248-2 is no great shakes.  For all of their practice kudos, we haven't seen much of the Eldridge/Dowling/Muhammad-Wyatt trio in the box scores.

Position Grade: I do think we have a potential star in David Eldridge, but this group features an awful lot of scholarships invested into what feels like a roster glut of mediocre complementary receivers.  Sorry, but I have to grade this unit a C-, which really should be more of a D+ when you consider the robbing-Peter-to-pay-Paul aspect of sinking 12+ scholies into the WR position and denying the OL and DL numbers we really need.  Mike London's fucked-up roster planning is going to be biting us on the nuts for seasons to come.  You'll see what I mean in a few minutes...

I do think Levrone has a chance to shine given more playing time
and/or a better offensive system.

Tight End

Eligibility Exhausted: Rob Burns, Charlie Hopkins

Returning Starter(s): Evan Butts (So.)

Other Returnees: Brendan Marshall (Jr.), Tanner Cowley (RS Fr.), Richard Burney (RS Fr.)

Incoming Recruits: Andrew Trainer (3☆), Christian Baumgardner (3☆)

Hope for the Future: Well, thanks to a 2015-16 recruiting surge, this position is back to being fully-stocked.  How good any of these dudes are, however, is anyone's guess.  I do think Evan Butts has flashed some potential in this, his redshirt freshman season.  So assuming we get three more seasons of Butts, I think that buys the new staff enough time to figure out what the rest of the guys can do, and what they need to recruit... or if they want to spread things out and marginalize the tight end position altogether.

Reasons for Pessimism: Kinda like at receiver, most of these tight ends are simply unknowns.  None of them were especially highly-rated as recruits.  So maybe one or two bubble up into solid starters, but who knows?

Position Grade: I'm just going to give it a C, buoyed by the warm bodies at the position and enough demonstrated performance from Evan Butts for me to feel fairly comfortable.  I will say that I would like the next staff to shit or get off the pot at tight end.  Either get us back to being Tight End U, or stop screwing around with the tight end position completely.

Butts looks like a keeper at tight end.

Offensive Line

Eligibility Exhausted: Jay Whitmire, Ross Burbank, John Pond

Returning Starter(s): Eric Smith (Sr.), Jackson Matteo (Sr.), Jack English (Jr.), Michael Mooney (Sr.), Ryan Doull (Sr.)

Other Returnees: Jake Fieler (So.), Sadiq Olanrewaju (Jr.)  - I am assuming a medical redshirt for his lost 2015 season, Eric Tetlow (So.) - I am assuming a medical redshirt for his lost 2015 season, Jack McDonald (Jr.), Sean Karl (Sr.), Steven Moss (So.), Grant Polk (RS Fr.), Ryan Bischoff (RS Fr.), R.J. Proctor (RS Fr.)

Incoming Recruits: Stephen Spanellis (3☆), Ben Knutson (3☆), Dillon Reinkensmeyer (2☆)

Hope for the Future: Lots of guys have played, so the 2016 line should feature a lot of experience.  Some of the young guys (English, Fieler, Polk, a few others) carry promising upside.

Reasons for Pessimism: Oh man, where to begin.  Okay, first, the 2016 line will only feature 15 guys who were recruited and offered a scholarship to play OL.  (Most college programs shoot for 17, I'm more comfortable at 20, given that it's a position rife with injuries and attrition.)  In 2017... here's where it gets scary... the 15 dips to 10.  And that's just the numbers, I haven't gotten started on talking about how bad the o-line has been these last two (three? four? five?) seasons.  If there is one thing Mike London can point to as the primary reason he has sucked at Virginia, it's not the boneheaded gameday decisions, the shitty quarterback play, or the awful special teams, it's his inability to effectively roster plan and recruit the offensive line while trying to run a power-based offense.

Position Grade: D.  The talent of a few individuals save this group from a failing grade.  But - holy jeezus - we are going to be very, very THIN on the o-line for the next few seasons.  It's terrifying.  The new staff is going to need to recruit OL fast and furious.

Sadiq Olanrewaju is a guy I like to come from out of nowhere
and emerge as a pretty good player on the line.

Defensive Tackle

Eligibility Exhausted: David Dean

Returning Starter(s): Andrew Brown (Jr.)

Other Returnees: Donte Wilkins (Sr.), Andre Miles-Redmond (Sr.), James Trucilla (RS Fr.), Eli Hanback (RS Fr.)

Incoming Recruits: none (so far)

Hope for the Future: If the o-line situation is terrifying, then defensive tackle is like Jason Voorhees, Freddy Krueger, Michael Myers, Damien the Omen, and Pennywise the Clown hunting you down in the Overlook Hotel.  But this is the 'hope for the future' section, so I'll say: Wilkins and Miles-Redmond might be able to hold down the fort while the new coaching staff hopefully coaxes some production out of Andrew Brown and attracts some instant-impact talent to Charlottesville.

Reasons for Pessimism: Oh man, 2017 and beyond?  Yikes.  Brown could be back as a senior, but who knows how good he'll be.  James Trucilla looked like a decent recruit (3☆ out of Pennsylvania), but his other offers were from the FCS and the MAC.  Eli Hanback was a 2☆ offensive lineman whose other offers were from JMU, ODU, and W&M.  London recruited him and then moved him to DT.  And that's it.  That's all of the defensive tackles.  Horrifying, right?  What makes it even worse is that London's [surprisingly decent] lame duck / swan song 2016 recruiting class doesn't have any DT recruits, unless linebacker Kenneth Ruff bulks up and moves to tackle, which is an ambitious projection.  None of the ends have DT potential, either.  Granted, a new staff will have a chance to rally for some DT recruits at the end of the 2016 recruiting cycle, and 2017 recruits might be able to play as true freshmen in the fall of 2017, but this is still a terrible spot on the roster.

Position Grade: F

We're just absolutely fucked if Andrew Brown doesn't end up being
worth a damn as an upperclassman.

Defensive End / Pass Rush

Eligibility Exhausted: Mike Moore, Kwontie Moore, Trent Corney

Returning Starter(s): none

Other Returnees: Darrious Carter (So.), Chris Peace (So.), Cory Jones (So.), Steven Wright (RS Fr.), Gladimir Paul (RS Fr.), Naji Abdullah (RS Fr.)

Incoming Recruits: none (so far)

Hope for the Future: Thankfully, Jon Tenuta has recruited lots of positionless pass rushers over the last few seasons.  2016 is when the rubber hits the road with these guys.  There are six candidates for playing time, and we'll need at least four of them to prove worthy.  The pure, raw, stupid pass rush talent is in place, now we just need a competent staff to "coach 'em up."

Reasons for Pessimism: Carter and Peace have played some in 2015, but neither has been good enough to force an absolutely awful Trent Corney to the bench.  That is not a good sign.  Weight, meanwhile, is light on the six young guys -- Carter 235, Peace 240, Jones 215 (!?!), Wright 235, Paul 210 (?!?), Abdullah 215 (!!!).  Steak sandwiches, y'all.  Steak sandwiches and french fries.  Lots and lots of french fries.  With bacon and cheese.  Cheddar cheese fries, dudes.  Wash it down with a milkshake.  [Oh, and Cory Jones and Gladimir Paul are currently listed as outside linebackers.  Knowing what I know, both are one-dimensional pass rushers, which is fine... but they should be considered ends for the purposes of this exercise.]

Position Grade: I'm leaning somewhere between a D+ and a C-.  I like the six young guys.  I like Jon Tenuta's track record of unearthing underrated pass rush gems out there in the high school ranks, and these six represent his best efforts to stock the cupboard here at UVA.  Odds are good that at least one of them ends up being legit.  Remember Max Valles.

Wright might just be a four-year starter at LDE for the Hoos.

Linebacker

Eligibility Exhausted: none

Returning Starter(s): Micah Kiser (Jr.), Zach Bradshaw (Sr.)

Other Returnees: C.J. Stalker (So.), Eric Gallon (So.), Mark Hall (Sr.), Jahvoni Simmons (RS Fr.), Dominic Sheppard (RS Fr.), Malcolm Cook (Jr.)

Incoming Recruits: Kenneth Ruff (3☆), Stephen Moye (3☆), Landan Word (3☆), Matt Terrell (2☆), Robert Snyder (2☆)

Hope for the Future: Thanks to the linebacker recruiting boom in the 2015 and 2016 classes, this position is well-stocked with warm bodies.  Micah Kiser certainly looks like the real deal, even if he's struggling to shed blocks this season.  I'm banking on Kiser as the star of the defense in future seasons.  I also think it's safe to assume that at least a couple of Stalker, Gallon, Simmons, Sheppard, Ruff, and Word will bubble up into solid impact-making starters.  The depth chart should be in good shape for the foreseeable future.

Reasons for Pessimism: We know the potential, but we haven't seen the production.  (That's college football in a nutshell, I guess.)

Position Grade: I liked them when we were recruiting them, and I have no reason to dislike them now -- Stalker, Gallon, Simmons, Sheppard, Ruff, and Word should yield a very solid position unit given proper development and experience.  Here's a tasty B for the report card.

Micah Kiser is the key to everything on defense.

Safety / Big Corner

Eligibility Exhausted: Maurice Canady, Mason Thomas

Returning Starter(s): Quin Blanding (Jr.), Kelvin Rainey (Sr.)

Other Returnees: Wilfred Wahee (Sr.), Juan Thornhill (So.)

Incoming Recruits: Jordan Mack (3☆), Nick Grant (3☆), Chris Moore (2☆), Bryce Hall (2☆)

Hope for the Future: Well, Quin Blanding is back for at least one more season (2016) before he is draft-eligible, so he'll join Micah Kiser as a headliner on D.  Kelvin Rainey provides a very solid running mate and Wil Wahee provides good depth and special teams acumen.  2017 and beyond should be served well by Juan Thornhill, who is already pushing for playing time as a true freshman.  The 2016 recruits each feature tantalizing upside, so this position group looks like it's in pretty good shape overall.

Reasons for Pessimism: None, really.  Losing Canady after this season will hurt, but the rest of these guys are ready to step up, I think.  I'll be interested to see how the quartet of Mack, Grant, Moore, and Hall shakes out.  One or two of those guys will probably be asked to play instead of redshirting in 2016.

Position Grade: I'd say this grades out about the same as the quarterback position.  B+.

Sophomore slump for Blanding, but he's still a star.

Coverage Cornerback

Eligibility Exhausted: Demetrious 'Tra' Nicholson

Returning Starter(s): none

Other Returnees: Tim Harris (Sr.), Divante Walker (Sr.), Kirk Garner (Jr.), Darious Latimore (So.), Kareem Gibson (RS Fr.), Myles Robinson (RS Fr.)

Incoming Recruits: Deedrick Daniels (3☆), Darrius Bratton (2☆)

Hope for the Future: Oh man.  Here's where three seasons of Jon Tenuta coordinating your defense comes to haunt you.  Tenuta likes his corners BIG, so therefore you end up running a bit short of small/quick guys who are generally better players in coverage.  I don't believe in Tim Harris, but he'll be our top cornerback in 2016.  At least he'll be buoyed by a fair amount of playing experience.  I'm guessing that Divante Walker will play a lot as a senior, too... but he's sight unseen at this point in his career.  Kirk Garner must not be very good, because he doesn't play at all, can't get on the field.  Latimore, Gibson, Robinson, who knows?  Hope for the future?  I suppose it's Tim Harris and the fair chance that one of the unknowns might bubble up.

Reasons for Pessimism: There are many.  This area has been under-recruited and underdeveloped by the outgoing staff.  It joins the OL, DT, and DE positions as areas upon which the new staff will need to focus.

Position Grade: D.  I don't like what's happening here, at all.  And that's seriously fucked-up, given the huge number of positionless WR/DB athlete-types Mike London has recruited during his time here.  No go-to WRs and no shutdown corners.  What the fuck?

I sincerely hope I'm wrong about Tim Harris...
but I just don't think he's a very good player.

Special Teams

Eligibility Exhausted: Ian Frye

Returning Starter(s): Nicholas Conte (Sr.) - punter, Dylan Sims (Sr.) - kickoffs, Tyler Shirley (Jr.) - longsnapper, Andrew Mackay (Jr.) - holder

Other Returnees: James Coleman (Sr.) - punter, a bunch of other walk-on specialists

Incoming Recruits: Holland Corbett (2☆) - kicker

Hope for the Future: Conte is averaging a robust 46.4 yards per punt as a first-time starter.  The snapping and holding operation seems stable, and the components return in 2016.  Holland Corbett is a standout kicking talent who should be able to step in as a true freshman (and January enrollee!) and receive the baton from Ian Frye.  Moving on from Larry Lewis will be addition by subtraction.

Reasons for Pessimism: Who returns kicks and punts?  Is that Olamide Zaccheaus?  If so, I am excited about those units.  What about coverage?  That's the big question mark... but given our roster composition (heavy with receivers, running backs, linebackers, and defensive backs), plenty of capable candidates should emerge.

Position Grade: B

So... Is the Cupboard Bare?

Uh, well, look.  The trenches, man.  The trenches.  Things are not in great shape in the trenches.

THAT BEING SAID, I think there is talent in place that could be effective (to the tune of 6 or 7 wins in 2016) if it's deployed in the right kind of system.  Specifically, if it's deployed in a guile-based, spread-to-pass system; the Air Raid or an Air Raid offshoot, if you will.

If we try to line up and pound the rock with power, ala Stanford, this roster tops out at about 3 or 4 wins.  Power football is not the path forward for Virginia, at least not in the near future, at least not given the current construction of the roster.

Another thing you really have to consider is the 2016 schedule.

• ACC Home Games: Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Louisville
• ACC Away Games: Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
• OOC: Richmond, Central Michigan, @ UConn, @ Oregon (ugh)

WHYYYYYYYYYYYYY??????

And just because I can, here's the 2017 schedule.

• ACC Home Games: Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Boston College
• ACC Away Games: Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Louisville
• OOC: William & Mary, UConn, Indiana, @ Boise State (arrgghh)

WHYYYYYYYYYYYYY??????

That's a pretty favorable 24-game slate, frankly.  Only two boneheaded OOC games, and no Florida State or Clemson in conference.

Our new coach is going to have some holes to fill, but it's not an impossible task.  The cupboard is far from fully stocked, but it also isn't completely bare.

Maybe something like this.

So, yeah, it's a rebuild job.  Let's not get it twisted.  But that's exciting in many ways -- being able to watch a new coaching staff build a roster.  That's what college football is all about!

[Whispered aside: This is also why I favor a young coach over an older one - like, for example, Matt Campbell over Mack Brown.  We need a young guy who will carry some real nitroglycerin on the recruiting trail.  We need someone with the youthful energy and single-minded obsessive stupidity to pull those 100-hour weeks it's going to take to get Virginia Football headed back in the right direction.  Long days and nights on the road, recruiting.  Mickey D's for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.  Hotels, motels, airports, rental cars.  It's going to be a grind.]


The Shopping List:

-- A hand-picked QB for the new system
-- A go-to wide receiver
-- Field-stretching speedster WR(s)
-- A 4☆ or better tight end
-- Ten OL over the next two recruiting classes
-- DT, DT, DT, DT, a total top-to-bottom rebuild of that position
-- A defensive end (or two) with some size
-- A fast, sideline-to-sideline, playmaking weakside linebacker
-- At least one and preferably two instant-impact cover corners


What say you?  Do you agree or disagree with my synopsis?  Is the cupboard bare for 2016 and beyond?