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January 24, 2014

UVAMBB Power Rankings -- 1/24/2014

I did it all season last year, and it's time to dust it off and bring it back!



I'll admit it.  I was extremely butthurt over losing that home game to VCU.  But finally - after lots of awesome winning - I'm over it.  I'm over it and ready to really sink my teeth into Virginia Basketball again!

Here's how the UVAMBB Power Rankings work:

At regular intervals during basketball season, I will unveil the power rankings for all of the players on the basketball team. This is essentially a relative measure of how they've been playing in recent games, coupled with an in-order listing of each player's value to the team moving forward with the season.  After the player rankings, I'll share my power rankings for the 15 teams in the ACC.  (Also, don't forget to look to the right to see the frequently-updated Virginia's NCAA Tournament Résumé!)

On with it...



#1 - Joe Harris
He struggled early in the season, deferring too much to his teammates, playing too passively, not hunting his shot.  But now, finally, he's back.  And the steps he took as a leader after the Tennessee game (showing up at Tony Bennett's house for a one-on-one meeting, leading a team meeting to rally the guys around Bennett's system) really entrenches him as the #1 guy for this year's team.  The best news, however, is that we have proven ourselves able to win without Joe.  Since the concussion, Joe has poured in 11, 16, 15, 18, and 16 points including 14-for-27 (52%) from behind the three-point arc.  That's the work of a confident, aggressive sniper.  And his free throw shooting has improved a little bit, too (16-for-21, 76% over the last five games).  Joe Harris is our star.

#2 - Akil Mitchell
I know the free throw shooting has turned atrocious (currently 43%), and I know he suddenly kills us when he tries to do too much offensively (scoring average now 6.7 ppg, down from 13.1 last season).  But lately, he has settled into full ownership of his role -- defender, rebounder, and garbage scorer.  And in that very specific role, he is an awesome player.  One of our best ever.  I worry about next season, not because we'll lose Joe, but because we'll lose Akil.  His toughness and ego-less athleticism will be very difficult impossible to replace.  In any case, I'm just focused on enjoying the last half of the senior season of one of my favorite Wahoos ever.



#3 - Malcolm Brogdon
Let's talk about finding the right role for specific players, seeing them embrace that role, and seeing their effectiveness take off.  That's Brog at the 2, attacking the basket.  He's the only guy who can do it really effectively (other than Justin Anderson when he's under control), and Brog's the only guy who is money from the line once he gets fouled.  Add that to solid defense, and we have a rising star on our hands here.  Brog is ice cold efficiency, poised to assume lead dog status for this team once Joe graduates.

#4 - Justin Anderson
He gives us two things that nobody else on the team can provide -- overt emotion, and into-the-rafters athleticism.  My wife and I have started calling them "Justin plays."  You know what I'm talking about.  The baited layups, rejected.  The insane putbacks.  The matrix-style pursuit of loose balls.  Justin plays.  "When he's in the game, something is going to happen."  That's what I usually say about him now, and it's so totally true.  That "something" isn't always good, but it's always a helluva lot of fun to watch.  Justin's falling in love with his perimeter jumper right now, and shooting 32% from deep, that love affair isn't a good thing.  But otherwise... he's the straw that stirs the drink.  (Sorry that I overuse that expression on Justin, but it's completely apropos.)  He's a kind of player I don't think Tony Bennett will be able to recruit into this system very often, so I'm just trying to really enjoy Justin Anderson for what he is, while we've got him.


Fuck yeah.
#5 - London Perrantes
8 points, 9 assists, 2 boards, 2 steals, with only 1 turnover and 1 foul.  For my money, Perrantes was our MVP against UNC.  He's really coming into his own, and showing the world how good Bennettball can be when there's a real point guard running the show.  Some Hoofans knock London's lack of pure footspeed, but I contend that guile and cunning, moxie and chutzpah can compensate for any lack of quickness.  The sky isn't the limit for Perrantes --- he's got a ceiling somewhere up there --- but I think he can be a very, very good ACC point guard, and easily our best since Sean Singletary.  For this year's team, he is indispensable.  We're not the same team when he's on the bench.

#6 - Anthony Gill
"The Janitor" (thanks Mike) continues to grow on me, especially as he gets more and more confident and comfortable in creating his offense.  He's still a garbage man, but there's definitely some finesse-style upside there.  I love him coming off the bench, facing our opponents' backup bigs, who are generally too raw to contend with Gill's quickness off the floor and well-rounded array of low post moves.  Like everyone else, he's kind of settling into his role, and the team is much better because of it.

#7 - Mike Tobey
I'd really like to have Mike Tobey - a starter and rightfully so - ranked a little bit higher right now.  He's not playing poorly.  He's a part of the offense, and he's become surprisingly good on the offensive glass.  But here's why he's #7 on this list: 43% from the field.  He's become a black hole, and his poor shooting around the basket hurts what is the single most important trait of Bennettball offense -- its efficiency.  I still love Tobes, and I still believe he has legit NBA upside, but since the Tennessee game he has gone 0-4, 3-11, 6-11, 2-9, 4-11, and 2-4 from the field.  That's 17-for-50 from the field.  That's 34%.  A horrible number for anyone, and especially horrendous for a big man who gets a mass majority of his shots from in close to the basket.  What excites me is that we all know that Tobey is better than that... so imagine how much better the team will be when he gets it back up around 50-55% (he shot .530 as a freshman).  We're playing great basketball right now, but the ceiling is higher and a big part of that potential lies with Mike Tobey.




#8 - Evan Nolte
Nolte is carrying a bit of a mercenary sniper role right now.  As in, come into the game and hit a three, usually when Joe's on the bench.  And that's okay, that's a role.  That's 5-10 minutes per game, and Nolte is shooting 57% from deep since we started playing well after the Tennessee game.  Sometimes the matchups dictate that he doesn't play at all (he's a defensive liability, not quick enough to guard the 3, not big or strong enough to guard the 4), but for all intents and purposes, he's the third guy off the bench and thus, #8 in this ranking.

#9 - Darion Atkins
I wish I knew what in the hell is wrong with Darion, and why in the hell he hasn't been able to develop past his crippling inconsistencies.  As the season moves along, his role is being further minimized.  The tightening of the rotation has been a boon to the team's performance, and someone had to hit the pine to make it happen.

#10 - Teven Jones
Right around 5 mpg in Perrantes/Brog relief and as part of the flood of scrubs when we're running out the clock at the end of blowouts.  That's a sad destiny for our scrappy little point guard, but just like with Atkins, Teven never seems able to work through his weaknesses.  Now he's been recruited over (twice, if you count Devon Hall), and he's pretty close to sharing the same fate as Solomon Tat as a four-year guy who was a great teammate but ultimately never a contributor to the team's on-court success.




BONUS! -- ACC Team Rankings

At this point, I have seen all 15 ACC teams play at least once, and following the conference as closely as I do, I feel at least somewhat qualified to share this ranking.  This is a ranking of how good I think the teams are, not based in any way on wins/losses/RPI/etc.

#1 - Syracuse
Easily the cream of the crop in the new-look ACC.  I have Cuse @ UVA circled on my calendar -- March 1st, bitches.

#2 - Duke
That's right.  #2.  Just because I know they'll be playing 8-on-5 in an obscene number of games, and because I think the collection of parts is going to gel as a team as the season drags along.  Fuck Duke!

#3 - Pitt
The way they dominated a good Clemson team... It's clear these guys are for real.

#4 - Virginia
5-1 today, 13-5 at the end of the ACC schedule.  Book it.

#5 - Florida State
Size, athleticism, defense.  That's the Leonard Hamilton recipe, and this year's FSU team is no different than any of the others, other than a general lack of impact guard play.

#6 - Clemson
I knew Brad Brownell would be a success at Clemson.  Right now, they're winning in a way very familiar to Virginia fans -- by grinding it out.  Littlejohn gives them a nice home court advantage.

#7 - North Carolina
Too much talent not to pull it together at least a little bit.  Roy can't coach his way out of a wet paper bag, but these guys will find a way to run around and attack the basket enough to get to a .500 record in the conference.  UNC on the Tournament bubble?  Should be fun to watch.  (Of course, they'll get in.)

#8 - NC State
That this team is so close to being in the top half of the conference is a testament to how down the ACC is this season.  State isn't very good, they're super erratic, but they have the talent to bubble up and beat anyone they play.

#9 - Maryland
Talented, but dysfunctional.  It's good to see them fade away into meaningless nothingness as they pack their shit for the move to the Big Ten.

#10 - Wake Forest 
I buy their nice start... to a certain extent.  The "Bzdelik Factor" is naturally going to doom them, though.  Also, these guys just cannot win on the road (other than in Blacksburg).

#11 - Notre Dame
Going nowhere fast with Jerian Grant out.

#12 - Georgia Tech
They look like a 6-win ACC team to me.  There's talent on this roster, but I'm not convinced Gregory is anything other than one of the three worst coaches in the ACC.

#13 - Miami
They have some pieces and parts, but it doesn't fit together very well.  Switching to the matchup zone was smart, but they still can't score.

#14 - Boston College
I still believe in Olivier Hanlan.  Frankly, I'm shocked that they are as bad as they are.  But losing is losing, and BC is doing a whole lot of it this season.

#15 - Virginia Tech
They suck.




The Chip, revisited

Virginia has a kindred spirit in Vanderbilt.

Check this out, from a week and a half ago, just after James Franklin jumped ship at Vandy to head to Penn State.



That piece is short, but it really resonates with me.  I encourage you to read it!  It's short, I promise!


For fifty years we were prisoners of Coach Art Guepe's "no way you can be Harvard six days a week and Alabama on Saturday" line. Sound familiar, Hoofans?

Nine wins in back to back seasons, back to back wins over an archrival, back to back bowl victories – it may sound pretty damn modest elsewhere, but it’s literally as good as it’s ever been for Vanderbilt. Sound familiar, Hoofans?

This is the chip. No one wishes us well. Nobody else has our best interests at heart. Nobody thinks we deserve anything more than to be their easy automatic W.

Fuckin-a.

I've talked about the "White Meat" plight of Virginia football and basketball.  Vanderbilt has exactly the same issues.  James Franklin was the right coach at the right time for the 'Dores, but he vanished in a puff of smoke just as quickly as he appeared.  I think they rebounded nicely; the Derek Mason hire was a hone run in my [fairly educated] approximation.

If Mason is a home run and Franklin was a grand slam for Vandy, then Mike London has been a slow-rolling dribbler directly back to the pitcher for us.

All we need to do is find the right coach when we step back to the plate.  Until then, let's try to find that chip for our shoulder, and let's try to find some kind of fighting spirit.  We're good fans, dammit.  We're good fans and we deserve better.  Virginia has money to spend and all the peripherals to support a winning football program.  Some people may laugh at the term "sleeping giant."  I don't laugh.  Instead, I believe it with every fiber of my being.  That's the chip on MY shoulder, and that's why I get so pissy when we underachieve so disastrously.

Podcast... coming soon! (?)

Received this via the "Give a Yell" anonymous feedback form:

You guys do a great job, but I was just wondering why there hasn't been a podcast in so long. I really enjoy them. I know you all have lives outside of this blog, but I hope to see another one soon!

If Pierce is still willing to play in the sandbox with me after I just told one of our readers to go f*** himself, then I promise we'll have a new podcast soon! Next week?


January 23, 2014

My Thoughts on Football Scheduling

Thanks for sharing this, Anonymous!  It sums things up pretty perfectly.


I'm going into this season just like I go to the doctor to get a Tetanus shot. I know it'll hurt, but I also know that once the pain is over I'll be healthier because of it.


Here's the 2015 schedule our new coach will be facing:

@ UCLA
Notre Dame
Boise State
William & Mary
Duke
Georgia Tech
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
@ Louisville
@ Miami
@ North Carolina
@ Pittsburgh

I don't know if there's six winnable games there, unless we somehow find a QB (Turtle?) and the defense gets - and stays - solid. Who knows? Competent coaching can go a long way, and our roster is not devoid of talent.

2016:
Richmond
@ Oregon
@ UConn
Central Michigan
Louisville
Miami
North Carolina
Pittsburgh
@ Duke
@ Georgia Tech
@ Wake Forest
@ Virginia Tech

A bowl game seems pretty possible after the 2016 season. Realistically, we'll need to find the patience to wait at least that long, maybe into 2017.

For gits and shiggles, 2017:
William @ Mary
Stanford
UConn
@ Boise State
Duke
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
@ Louisville
@ Miami
@ North Carolina
@ Pittsburgh

Not sure who our Atlantic cross-over opponent will be that season, but we know it's a home game and we know it won't be WF, FSU, Syracuse, or Clemson. So... NC State or Boston College?

God, these OOC schedules suck! UCLA, Stanford, Boise, Oregon, BYU... WHY, WHY, WHY??? UConn makes sense, but the rest is freaking idiotic. We should be scheduling AAC schools, C*USA schools, MAC schools, Sun Belt schools, Kansas, Iowa State, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois (we do play them in '21 and '22), Army, Navy, Kentucky, Vandy, and maybe Ole Miss/Miss. St. Don't try to play big boy football until you're at least approaching adolescence as a football program. We're a toddler who got into dad's liquor cabinet right now. Wobbly and vomiting.

I mean, I can understand scheduling one marquee OOC game each season. "Marquee" being, like, Tennessee. Not a guaranteed loss like against Oregon or Stanford.

GWWAAAAARRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHH!


January 22, 2014

UVA Football Schedule Released

The ACC released the UVA football schedule today. It is below:

Aug. 30                 UCLA
Sept. 6                  RICHMOND
Sept. 13                LOUISVILLE*
Sept. 20                at BYU
Sept. 27                KENT STATE
Oct. 4                    PITTSBURGH*
Oct. 11                  BYE
Oct. 18                  at Duke*
Oct. 25                  NORTH CAROLINA*
Nov. 1                   at Georgia Tech*
Nov. 8                   at Florida State*
Nov. 15                 BYE
Nov. 22                 MIAMI*
Nov. 28 (Fri.)      at Virginia Tech*

There isn't really much to say here. This year in all likelihood is going to be a trainwreck. We could very well be 2-4 or even 1-5 heading into the first bye week. If that's the case, that should be the weekend the hammer drops on Mike London.

January 21, 2014

Quick Things to Say Quickly

Let's chat real quick about our 5-1 ACC start - in sloppy stream of consciousness note format:

By god - it's a WINNING UVA REVENUE SPORT

-WHO SAW THIS COMING? after the UT game? I'm going to assume no one. Oh you did? You're a liar.
-We're a lucky bounce or three from being 6-0. SIX AND 0. UVA hasn't started 6-0 in the ACC since the Harding administration.*
-London Perrantes has been a revelation. Loved hearing Van Gundy on primetime ESPN gush about him.
-Really I could list all the contributions from everyone in this stretch as positives, but outside of the team getting back to playing their unified-top-notch defense, real quickly: Joe shooting more, Anderson as the 6th man, Akil rebounding, Gill finishing, Brogdon starting at the 2, Brogdon driving over shooting, Nolte hitting big time shots in limited minutes, Tobey being really tall.
-How about that offense? 20 point leads over the majority of our ACC opponents. Whaaaaaaat? Apparently it's a throwback to the sets we ran with Mike Scott. Yeah, let's keep those.
-I said this a few weeks ago:

Basically, unless the team loses tonight, regardless of the Tennessee game, my opinion of the conference games is that 10-8 would put the team squarely on the bubble - and probably on the wrong side of it. 11-7 would absolutely be tournament worthy team - though it might not put us in a favorable position to win more than one game.

-Hey look how right I was. And by that I mean, the UT result did not matter - though one could say, the game itself has been our most important, as a catalyst for the performances following. 
-11-7 would not only be a shoe-in for the tournament, but it should be our ABSOLUTE bottom floor worst case scenario at this point. I mean, check the remaining games:

VPI
@ND
@Pitt
BC
@GT
UMD
@Clemson
@VPI
ND
Miami
Cuse
@Maryland

Piece of cake - right?

-Do you see 7 losses there? Outside of my standard beaten-down UVA fan pessimism, no way. I see a maximum of 5 losses, considering things are going to go wrong in some games at some point. Free throw shooting could cost a close game. Shooting slumps happen, etc... And were that to even happen, 13-5 in the ACC is a great place to be.
-THAT SAID. WHY NOT MORE? DON'T WE DESERVE MORE? DON'T WE DESERVE TO STRIVE FOR THE BEST? Well, yes I think it's fair to set our sights higher. Pitt and Cuse are both really really good, so before playing either, it's tough to think UVA has anything but the darkest of horses' chance to win a conference title. BUT that should at least be the goal. Before conference play, I thought top 4 in the ACC should be the goal - I didn't think it was what they'd achieve, but made sense as a where-we-want-to-be after the Tennessee loss. We're there already, if we keep it up.
-It doesn't bother me when fans say "we" for a team they support- I really don't get why it bothers others. I think it's a trendy-cynical thing to bitch about. Like the show Girls.
-JONTEL EVANS. Good to see you at the FSU game. GREAT to hear the ESPN studio guys talk about you on primetime TV for 5 minutes a year after your graduation. 
-A thousand "you're an asshole"s to the guy sitting behind me in my section who loudly boo'd when the JPJ showed Jontel on the screen.
-Even more "you're an asshole"s to the same individual who loudly boos anything Akil does poorly, but remains oddly silent when he does something well. If you're too stupid to understand how important Akil Mitchell is to this team - or recognize the exceptional defense he plays - you should stay at home. Or at least shut your mouth.
-To everyone that's not a point guard. FREE THROWS ARE NOT THAT DIFFICULT.
-Only real concern recently? Letting offensive rebounds turn into open 3 pointers. Happened last night. Happened, what, 15 times vs Duke.
-That's all I got. Leave comments. Let's talk.




*this is not true.