Dookie

This is what I would call a "pivot" game. It's simple, really:

Beat Duke on Saturday = We solidify our footing and begin to rebound from a really bad three week span.

Lose to Duke on Saturday = Our season begins to spiral out of control.

There's really no in-between here. I hesitate to use this term, but this game against Duke is a MUST WIN.



Vegas installed UVA as a 5-point home favorite, over/under 44. So Vegas began the week expecting something like a 24-20 UVA win. But in the three days since, the line has been bet hard, and now stands at Virginia -3. So a 24-21 Virginia win, then.

I'm giving them the points and I'm hammering the Virginia bet in this game. At 3, 5, 7, 10, fuck it, 14. I think we come out with serious anger and intensity, and look to make a statement on our home field against a team with equal or lesser talent.

My pick: Virginia 38, Duke 14

Betting the Hoos and the OVER.

(My season to date: 5-1, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U)

I also want you guys to...

READ THIS.

Offensive?

I actually have something that might be a salient point.

A multi-tiered hypothesis / soapbox speech, really...

1) I can't think of any other mid-level P5 program with a head coach who came from the defensive side of that ball that employs an OC that runs an offense that the casual fan would say is "good" or "explosive" or "dynamic." The mid-level P5s with good offenses hired HCs from the offensive side of the ball. (Unless I'm missing something, which is enormously possible.)

2) Therefore, perhaps we are condemned to a ceiling of "just okay" offense under Bronco Mendenhall, by which we have to win games with defense and special teams while the offense merely treads water. Given this staff's clear ability to identify-recruit-develop talent (jury's out on OL, RB, PK talent, I'll grant you) and build a winning culture, we may just have to come to accept a mostly-mediocre offense, big picture.

3) Our pattern of quarterback recruiting points to valuing running ability over pure passing acumen. Limited passers yield a limited passing game, which in turn yields a conservative-style offense.

4) The gripes about playcalling and gameplanning are out there, numbering in the tens of thousands. But not many are grumbling about overall offensive design. Let me submit my grumble: If our offense is going to come third to the D and ST, if our offense is condemned to an average ceiling, and if our offense is committed to the dual-threat QB with the associated inherent passing limitations, we need to establish a strict spread-to-run system. We need to stop trying to do everything and start focusing on trying to do a few things really well; we need to begin sacrificing the failed premise of offensive versatility in order to focus on quick linemen, wide line splits, big receivers, wide running, option concepts, RPOs, play action, and short/intermediate controlled passing. (Anae built offenses like that in the past that were effective, but he's not succeeding here in Charlottesville.) Our recruiting wins are any OL rated above .850 (Hubbard, Christ, Gellerstedt) and/or developed over 4+ years in the program, any RBs with .875+ pedigree (Hollins is the closest so far, at .8626), any QBs with wheels (we're getting those now -- Armstrong, Harvey, Wentz, and Armstead all fit the bill), any slot receivers with speed/quickness (Kelly, Kemp, maybe Milledge), and any wideouts with 6-3+ height (Goddard, Beal, Lavel Davis). This offense needs to be conceived, designed, and built as the COMPLEMENTARY piece to the dynamic difference-making defense and special teams.

5) Hoofans need to understand points 1 thru 4, above, and enter the fray with a REALISTIC set of expectations for the Virginia Offense. Which is, in a few words --- to competently serve as a complement to the defense.

Notes from the Blue-White Scrimmage

I was at the scrimmage on Saturday. My notes/observations.....

Players capable of leading the team in scoring on any given night: Diakite, Huff, Woldetensae, Morsell, Key, in that order. No surprises there, I guess.

3-point shooters: Diakite, Huff, Woldetensae, Stattmann. Clark, Key, and Morsell can maybe get us a three from time to time. List ends there. But, wait, that's kind of a long list, so okay.

I think it’s possible that we have the best frontcourt in the country. No shit.

Relative to expectations, players who REALLY impressed me:

— Mamadi Diakite. My God. This is a complete, dynamic, NBA-ready MAN. He’s ready to average 15 & 8, and he’s clearly honed that perimeter shot while adding an array of hooks. First-team ACC. Reminiscent of Mike Scott's senior season, minus the fadeaway but adding a legit 3-point jumper and low post aggression.

— Kody Stattmann. I was really really impressed with his hustle and grit. Shot looks good. Reminds me of glue guys of the past, guys like Willie Dersch, Jason Williford, and late-career Evan Nolte. Didn’t see much of him handling the ball, but the defense was night-and-day better. He seems really bought-in to the concepts. Saturday, he topped the team in hustle, in my humble opinion. And that’s pretty big, and was completely unexpected. (Holy shit, I might be a Kody Stattmann stan.)

Relative to expectations, players who impressed me:

— Jay Huff. He’s ready for his star turn. Shot’s still there, defense is improved, positioning is improved, feet are quicker, upper body is stronger. Very excited about him on the verge of the season. There will - and should - be times when the offense runs through Jay.

— Tomas Woldetensae. This cat can shoot. He’s taller than I expected, but some of that may be his long neck and big hair. His point guard skills are apparent, which was a mild surprise to me, as I was expecting more of a pure 2-guard. He can facilitate the offense.

— Chase Coleman. Walk-on Kihei Clark. Small, quick, scrappy, tough. Played a lot, clear he’s quickly earned the team’s/coaches’ respect. Could see some game action in relief of what appears to be a thin backcourt.

— Casey Morsell. My expectations were high, and he met them. Mini-Brogdon, that’s about the best compliment I can give a young guard. Not sure about his shot from the perimeter, it didn’t feel pure... but the rest of his game is as-advertised or better, so I’m encouraged. You'll remember, Brogdon had a troubling "flat" shot his first year at UVA... Casey's shot isn't flat, it just seems like an effort to get it off. I'm spoiled from watching so much Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome recently.

— Jayden Nixon. Walk-on looks athletic (wild at times) and tough. Doubt he plays any meaningful minutes, but it is a thin backcourt.

Players who more or less played to my expectations:

— Francisco Caffaro. At one point I accidentally called him “Jack.” He’s maybe less wide/thick than Jack and slightly more skilled. Slightly. But the resemblance is uncanny. Defense not nearly as good as Jack’s, I should add.

— Kihei Clark. Same ol’ Kihei, which is not a bad thing. Still can’t shoot when he has time to get his brain involved in his shot. He seems to have superhuman premonition when it comes to tracking down loose balls that were tapped out by the initial rebounder (Kody is good at this, too). It’s an important skill for our 1-3 guys, because Mamadi and Jay are both really good at that tap. Anyway, I'm still worried about the offense bogging down when Kihei's in the game, but he makes up for all of that with his defense and all of the little things he'll do.

— Braxton Key. He still can’t shoot! But his defense and rebounding are great. He’s crafty on offense, I’ll give him that. I do believe he tops out at about 10 ppg as a scorer. Leadership presence seems to have grown. Diakite is the clear tone-setter, though... which could yield an edgier team than we’re used to seeing.

Players who slightly disappointed me:

— Justin McKoy. Seemed to float throughout the scrimmage, I never saw much aggression or assertiveness out of him. He was overshadowed by the players I’ve named above, and really seemed to disappear. The walk-ons had more of a presence in the game.

— Sam Hauser. He’s clearly very very skilled, and scored a lot, but he didn’t sparkle as much as I expected him to. I’m now certain that Jay Huff leaves early, so we’ll need to really lean on Hauser in 2020-21, and I don’t think he offers enough physical presence. You'll hear a lot about Hauser right now, about how good he looked on Saturday, that he was the best player on the floor, etc. Here's what I say: Not even close. He hit a lot of jumpers, but did nothing else. Diakite was - BY FAR - the best player on the floor. Huff #2. Then about 5 guys jockeying for #3... and I might go with Stattmann in that spot. Loved all the things he did. I'm a Stattmann stan.

— Kadin Shedrick. He reminded me of the 2016 version of Mamadi Diakite, which I guess isn’t really a bad thing. He needs to redshirt, but I like his upside more than Caffaro’s. By the way, we’ve come a long way from when we were recruiting a guy like Jarred Reuter. Give me the athletic upside of Shedrick every time.

I expect our starting lineup to be Clark / Stattmann / Key / Diakite / Huff, with Morsell, Woldetensae, Caffaro, and McKoy off the bench. Coleman and Nixon can play a deep rotation role, if needed. Shedrick redshirts.

GO HOOS!

Miami

It's been civil war on the 247 message board (JOIN that site, highly recommended), with one side digging in on trashing the o-line and offensive coaching staff and the other continuing to preach patience. Tremendous post from one of my favorite posters, Hoos Inc, that I wanted to share...

They want a scapegoat to rally against. And at this point we're literally making sh;t up that has been explicitly contradicted by the staff, like: we're rotating players to give them more experience at other positions to build depth. Nope. We're not. They've said why they're rotating guys, and it ain't that.

We're talking down OL recruiting when this staff has emphasized recruiting personnel in the trenches more than any staff in living memory, both through first years and grad transfers, every year.

We project this year's experience of rotation - which is due to injury and sub-optimal execution - onto the past, claiming the staff has always rotated this way when we played pretty much the same 5-6 all of last year.

We use ambiguous phrases no one can contradict like "recruiting projects not true linemen," whatever the hell that means. What exactly do 2-10 and 6-7 teams that have had one winning season in a decade recruit, usually? 4-stars? Yeah man, all we gotta do is get a class with a D'Brickashaw and an Albert and a Moses and we're set.

The fact is, if Gellerstedt doesn't get hurt, we're in a much better position with depth this year. He did, and we're in a bad position. We are one year away from having the bodies and depth to actually judge 2J. That's just being reasonable, and guys like Kendall have been right to point that out for a couple years now. One of our starting tackles is a 6'7" 280 pound true 2nd year who looks like a TE, our other is 6'10" 300lbs, and coming back from losing a ton of weight after nearly dying from heat stroke and spending a month in a coma. He started one game for us last year though....at TE. It's less than ideal.

Right now if there's any blame, it's on Anae's scheme and Perk's execution for not getting the ball out quicker, and we'll see what he does against Miami to change that. Bronco made some promising comments in that direction.

I am not some Pollyanna who's trying to say everything is sunshine and roses. I said repeatedly before the season that the OL would put the ceiling on what we could do, and how frustrating that was with so many other pieces in place. That was before Gellerstedt got hurt. I said before the ND game that I saw no hope for us winning that game with our OL's health situation what it was. I've commented on the weak median per rush performance of the running attack against Pitt and W&M, even when the game totals looked okay. I've agreed with guys like Hawk and Benkert that some tweaks to the offensive scheme could alleviate the pressure at the line of scrimmage. I'm acutely conscious of the reality of our OL and running situation. But that consciousness is rooted in the reality of our depth and experience, and that is fundamentally the consequence of the previous staff's criminal management of the roster and our recruiting slowly improving as our program's reputation climbs out of the septic tank of 21st century Virginia football. Given the time to develop players and the number of bodies needed, the OL will be the last position group to turn the corner in any program's development, and that's more true for us with the way London left it. And, looking at the roster, 2020 is the year that page turns. This is and always was going to be a year where there would be a mismatch between the level of our defense and skill positions vs OL, and the question was would we be able to get just enough out of the OL to put up a record that extends the program's momentum into a year where the OL should go from weakness to strength, and much of the other strengths remain.

That can still happen. ND we had injuries at spots we could ill afford them, and hopefully Olu is back at center this week and good to go. But even with this OL, 11-1 is a plausible outcome for this team, which would be the greatest season in program history. And it's not like our offense is completely anemic. Even with 4 yards rushing at ND, we outgained them 338-322 (granted they didn't need a couple drives thanks to the fumbles). The OL is frustrating as hell because it is the thing holding back this massive potential we all sense. I get that. But trying to pin it on one person and feeling like if we just ousted 2J or Anae everything'd be better, I call bullshit. You know how many yards playoff-contender UGA put up on ND, at home? 339. We got 338. And they have absolute monsters across their offensive front. There is a lot to like about our offense this year, and the things people like Hawkins, Benkert, and others have noted (that I completely agree with and have tried to share here and elsewhere) are constructive tweaks, rather than overhauls.

Any of us would have taken 4-1 to start the year. Yet we're starting shit-stirring threads praising one aspect of a Duke team that just got beat at home by a team we beat by sixteen on the road? Come on.


Fuckin-a.

So, yeah, Miami this week. Tonight, actually.

I fully expect that we've used the bye week to "fix" the offensive line and install more quick-release passing to mask their weaknesses.

Vegas curiously installed Miami as a 1-point favorite. Over/under is 43, therefore, Vegas is expecting a 22-21 Miami win.

WHATTTT?!??!!

Our defense is going to dominate this game, and we'll all see that the bye week has served us well.

My pick: Virginia 31, Miami 19

I'm betting on the Hoos, and I'm going with the OVER based on some late game garbage scoring. I honestly think this is a comfortable win for the Hoos.

(My season to date: 5-0, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U)

...

Notre Dame Pick

HUGE game tomorrow, but unfortunately no time for a proper post today. However, I need to get this pick out.....

Notre Dame is favored by 12.5, with an over/under of 48.5, therefore, Vegas is expecting a 30-18 type of win for the Irish.

I like our defense's chances of making it ugly and keeping it close, but ultimately our offense just doesn't have enough punch right now* to spring the upset on their home field.

My pick: Notre Dame 24, Virginia 13

(My season to date: 4-0, 3-1 ATS, 4-0 O/U)

* Yeah, our offense isn't clicking right now. A few reasons why, in no particular order:

1. Bryce Perkins clearly is not at 100%. He's still a dangerous runner, but the electric "suddenness" just isn't there.
2. The offensive line is banged up. And young. And individual linemen are being forced to rotate around between different roles too much. Add it up, and it's - STILL - a below-average OL. Ugh. I hate it. I just hate it. I hate watching offenses with bad line play. It sounds crazy to say this, but it's STILL Mike London's fault. We have zero senior OL, and only two juniors. That's a harsh indictment of our OL recruiting from five years ago, when London was still the coach.
3. The receivers aren't getting enough separation. I put this on them, and they as a unit had a bad game against ODU. We need all of Reed, Dubois, Jana, Chatman, Kemp, and Kelly to show up in South Bend.
4. Our backs appear to be ho-hum. But I suspect that's a symptom of #2, above, and #5, below.
5. Playcalling hasn't been bad, but also hasn't been anything above the "meh" level. I won't lambast Robert Anae like [too] many Hoofans are wont to do, but this offense is clearly begging for a tempo-based, pistol formation quick passing game. Keep Perkins in the pocket so he can get healthy, protect the OL by getting the ball out quickly and not asking them to do a ton of run blocking, and get the receivers in a better rhythm by feeding them a steady diet of short, easy completions.

Gotta get some of these things figured out, or we return to Charlottesville to play Duke at 4-2 and unranked in three weeks, despite a clear and obvious top-15 defense.